Two prominent industry analysts have put forward a very positive outlook on altcoin ETFs. They predict that eight different applications have a 90-95% chance of SEC approval.
The problematic assets include Litecoin, Solana, XRP, Dogecoin, Cardano, Polkadot, HBAR, and Avalanche. They are also positive about basket ETFs but believe SUI only has a 60% probability.
ETF Approval, Altcoin Season?
Since the first Bitcoin ETF appeared, cryptocurrency has changed irreversibly. This first offering was a long and difficult battle, but passionate fans hoped Bitcoin would break through.
The new SEC leadership triggered a surge in altcoin ETF applications, and two Bloomberg analysts believe many of them are likely to succeed:
NEW: @EricBalchunas & I are raising our odds for the vast majority of the spot crypto ETF filings to 90% or higher. Engagement from the SEC is a very positive sign in our opinion
— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) June 20, 2025
Their main altcoin ETF selections include classic competitors like Solana and XRP. Analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas have been watching this race for months.
They previously selected Litecoin as the top candidate, but now it has become a three-way competition.
Five other altcoins have slightly lower approval chances. They gave Sui a 60% probability due to its uncertain status as a commodity, and did not include TRON. Commentators inquired about several other applications, but they only considered activated Form 19b-4 applications.
So why are they so optimistic? After all, the SEC has repeatedly delayed altcoin ETF applications in all aspects. The key is that the committee is meaningfully engaging with these proposals.
The hostile SEC under Gary Gensler tried to ignore applications for as long as possible, but today's committee quickly acknowledges them.
Although it cannot move as quickly as the industry wants, the SEC is still showing encouraging signals. Seyffart theorized that final approval could happen in July or October, but he thinks it will occur in 2025.
Fortunately, the community has shown understanding about these delays. For example, belief in the success of the popular XRP ETF surged to 98% earlier this month despite SEC delays.
Now industry experts seem to have a similar optimistic view of altcoin ETFs. They hope the first approval will begin soon.
However, these positive predictions may not immediately lead to profitable investment opportunities. As of June 2025, Bitcoin ETFs occupy 90% of this sector. Even if all eight altcoin ETFs are approved, BTC could continue to dominate market share.
