Week24 Market Overview
Market Overview
This week, the cryptocurrency market as a whole showed a volatile downward trend. Bitcoin continued its downward trend last week, and fell into a sideways consolidation after hitting a high on the 16th. Affected by this, altcoins generally followed the decline. The market sentiment index dropped from 65% last week to 48%, and the overall sentiment was still in the bearish range, and the market entered a sideways and volatile stage.
1. Trading momentum and capital flow
Stablecoin Market Dynamics
As of June 19, the total market value of stablecoins continued to grow amid market fluctuations, indicating that funds are still flowing in. Among them, the difference in growth rates between USDT and USDC clearly reflects the dynamics of capital in different regions around the world.
- USDT: The market value reached 155.745 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 0.32% from 155.250 billion U.S. dollars last week. The weekly increase exceeded 1 billion U.S. dollars for the sixth consecutive week, continuing to show a strong upward momentum.
- USDC : USDC: The market value is 61.406 billion US dollars, down 0.45% from 61.683 billion US dollars last week, ending the three-week upward trend and starting a downward trend.
It is worth noting that USDT is mainly circulated in the Asian market, while USDC is more used in the U.S. market. Judging from the current capital flows, Asian funds are still continuing to flow in and drive the market, while U.S. funds are showing signs of gradual withdrawal, showing a clear divergence between the two markets at the current stage.
Market trading momentum weakened this week
- The overall BTC trading volume has dropped significantly, especially the USD trading volume has dropped sharply
- The market is in a stalemate, waiting for a change signal
On-chain pricing model: short-term holder costs
- Model Introduction: The Short-term Holder Cost Basis (STH Cost Basis) is a key on-chain pricing model that represents the average holding cost of recent market participants. Historically, this price level is a key watershed that distinguishes bull and bear trends in the market. To provide a richer statistical dimension, we can apply standard deviation above and below the STH cost basis to construct dynamic support and resistance ranges. These price ranges (Bands) quantify the price consensus range of the short-term holder group, and their outer boundaries are usually key areas that mark trend exhaustion or potential breakthroughs.
The current key price levels are as follows
- 111-Day Moving Average (111DMA) : ~$95.2k (short-term price support/resistance zone)
- 200-day moving average (200DMA) : about $84.3k (medium-term support)
- 365-day moving average (365DMA) : about $76.6k (long-term structural support)
- 200-week moving average (200WMA) : about $38.2k (historical bull-bear boundary)
Interpretation of recent market dynamics
This week, the overall price of Bitcoin remained sideways, fluctuating around $105k, and remained firmly above the 111DMA. The short-term trend is still strong. Although the price has not yet broken through the upper pressure of $110k, it has received buying support many times near the $100k mark.
From a technical perspective, the current market is still in a healthy shock structure, and multiple medium and long-term moving averages continue to rise, indicating that the trend foundation is solid. As long as it does not fall below the 111DMA near $95k, the market is still expected to continue to test the previous high.
Options Market Data to Observe Market Sentiment
In the following analysis, we fully quote the articles and opinions of the well-known Twitter KOL Murphy . If you are interested in this kind of in-depth market observation, you can follow his social account to obtain first-hand information.
- 25 Delta implied volatility skew measures the difference in implied volatility between put and call options.
Delta skew has continued to rise since May 27 (Figure 1), indicating that the price of call options is getting more expensive than that of put options, which means that under the current geopolitical conflict and macro background, traders' demand for downside protection of BTC has increased. In addition, the implied volatility smile curve reflects that both long and short sides are strengthening their hedging needs; the curve rises in the $106,000-$110,000 range, indicating that the market is also pricing in upward volatility.
But at the same time, the bearish end of the curve between $94,000 and $100,000 has risen more significantly (Figure 2). The steeper smile curve means that the pricing of tail risks has increased, especially the pricing of downside risks has increased more significantly, which also reflects the market's current stronger risk aversion sentiment or concerns about negative events.
Data source: Murphy
On-chain data and indicators
Market Sentiment Index Analysis
The market sentiment index dropped from 65% last week to 48%. BTC fell 0.89% this week, ETH fell 1.36% this week, and TOTAL3 fell 2.15% this week. Altcoin as a whole is still in the short range and has entered the panic level.
FRM Observation
In the following analysis, we fully quote the articles and opinions of Mr. Berg, a well-known Twitter KOL. If you are interested in this kind of in-depth market observation, you can follow his social media account to obtain first-hand information.
Special cycle & sluggish market
FRM stands for Fee Ratio Multiple, and the calculation formula is as follows:
FRM = Total miner income (block reward + transaction fee) / transaction fee
The logic is simple: if the market is hot and on-chain activity increases, transaction fees will increase significantly, causing FRM to decrease.
The above picture is taken from Glassnode Week On-Chain 2025 Week 24.
You can see:
- Green area: Bullish period, on-chain activities increased significantly, FRM was at a low level
- Bear market period: low on-chain activity keeps FRM at a high level
In the red area marked on the right side of the picture (now), FRM is obviously at a high level, indicating that on-chain transactions are currently in a relatively quiet state; combined with price performance, the situation seems to be somewhat different from the past.
If we have to stick to the short-term perspective, every time FRM rises sharply to a high level, the market has ushered in a large-scale downward trend; what's more, at the second peak in 2021, it seems that a similar situation has occurred...
Data source: Mr. Berg
Macroeconomic influence and event-driven
Impact of the macroeconomic environment
- Maintaining the interest rate range but sending a hawkish signal On June 18, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to maintain the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.50%, but Chairman Powell emphasized at the press conference that it will continue to pay close attention to factors such as inflation, geopolitical situation and energy prices. Market expectations for further rate hikes or delayed rate cuts have increased, bond yields have risen slightly, and the stock market has been volatile.
- Senate passes GENIUS Act On June 17, the Senate passed the GENIUS Act with a bipartisan consensus to establish a regulatory framework for stablecoins. This move directly pushed Coinbase's stock price up by about 16% , and also led to a 34% increase in Circle (USDC), which shows that the market's acceptance of stablecoin policies has increased.
- Coinbase seeks SEC approval for tokenized stock trading. At the same time, there are reports that Coinbase is applying to the SEC to launch blockchain-based tokenized traditional stocks. The crypto field is once again supported by mainstream financial institutions.
- Increasing tensions in the Middle East affect market sentiment. Israel launches military action against Iran, and market risk aversion heats up: oil prices soar in the short term, bond yields fluctuate, and the trend of U.S. Treasuries and the U.S. dollar reflects the inflow of safe-haven funds. Although this incident mainly occurred on June 13, it continued to affect the market until the middle of this week. The oil sector performed strongly and bond yields rose slightly.
- The temporary tariff suspension period will end. The previous round of tariff suspension period (90 days) on allies and China will expire on July 9. The market is worried that the United States may adjust its tariff policy again, causing uncertainty in trade policy.
Leverage risk range and liquidation hotspots
Introduction to the Liquidation Map
The liquidation map is like a mine map of the market, clearly marking the price points at which a large number of leveraged orders will be forced to close.
The brighter the area on the chart, the larger the accumulated liquidation amount. These areas act like "magnets" and attract prices to move toward them to obtain liquidity. Therefore, traders can use it to quickly determine the potential target price of the market and assess whether the risk of falling "killing longs" or rising "squeezing shorts" is higher. So below we will use multiple data sources to give an overview of market expectations for this week.
Exchange Liquidation Chart
- The height of the liquidation column of each exchange (Binance, OKX, Bybit) shows the concentration at different price levels
🔻 The liquidation bars on the left (below) are obviously more dense
- Liquidation columns are concentrated at $101,000 ~ $104,500
- This area is a concentrated area of leveraged long orders, indicating that a large number of long positions are deployed in this area, and the positions of OKX and Binance are particularly obvious.
- The bar chart is highly prominent, indicating that once the price falls below $104,000, it will enter a high-risk area for liquidation, which is likely to trigger a chain reaction.
🔺 The liquidation of short orders on the right (above) is relatively scattered
- Liquidation column starts from $105,800 to $114,000 with sporadic distribution
- Although Bybit and OKX have accumulated in some price zones, the overall liquidation intensity is not as good as below, with shorter columns and a wider distribution.
- It shows that the layout of short positions is relatively dispersed, the pressure of liquidation is limited when the market rises, and it does not have strong squeeze momentum.
✅ Summary:
- The current price is at the edge of the long order liquidation zone, with strong liquidation pressure below and high leverage density.
- If the price tests $103,000-$102,000 again, the liquidation energy will be rapidly amplified and the risk will increase.
- Although there is room for upward movement, there is insufficient incentive for liquidation and it must rely on substantial positive factors to drive it forward.
Liquidation Heat Map Key Observations
- The obvious long order liquidation concentration area is between $101,000 and $102,200
The blocks with the brightest color and the widest horizontal extension are concentrated in this price band, indicating that this is the concentrated entry area for high-leverage long orders in the past week.
If the price falls below $102k again, a large amount of liquidation may be triggered, causing a chain reaction and the short-term technical support is fragile.
- There are sporadic short order liquidation zones above $108,500 ~ $110,500
Although light yellow horizontal bands appear in this section, the color is light and the spacing is sparse, indicating that the short position layout is relatively dispersed and leverage is used conservatively.
This area lacks clear short position liquidation attraction. If the bulls want to push the price to this level, they need to rely on more substantial buying and fundamental positives.
- The current price is about $105,000, which is in the middle between the upper and lower liquidation pressures.
The figure shows that the current price range ($104k~$105k) corresponds to the medium-intensity liquidation zone that turns from yellow to green, indicating that some long orders have been liquidated in this area.
However, the $102k liquidation pool below has not been fully triggered yet, and the market may still pull back to further test the support. If it fails to hold, it will easily accelerate its decline.
Summarize
- The market structure was bearish this week, with the price falling from $108k to $105k and stagnating.
- The liquidation pressure below is still heavy, and the risk of long positions is concentrated in the range of $101k to $102k.
- If there is no new funds to push up and break through $108.5k, the short-term trend will still be mainly volatile and weak.
Summary
| index | state | Comment |
| Current price position | About 105,000 | It is in the middle of the liquidation zone, which belongs to the short-term consolidation zone. The volatility is converging and the market is entering a wait-and-see period. |
| Liquidation pressure from below | high | Long orders are concentrated between $101,000 and $102,200. If $104,500 is breached, a chain liquidation risk will be triggered. |
| Upper liquidation pressure | Medium to low | Although there is an accumulation of short orders, the density is low and the colors are dispersed, indicating that the short leverage is conservative and lacks explosive momentum. |
| Leverage Features | High leverage for long orders (10x~50x) | The proportion of long orders with high leverage is relatively high. If the price falls, it is easy to cause liquidity stampede and expand downward volatility |
| Bias | Bearish shock | Without external bullish momentum, the price tends to retrace the support area below. The overall structure is weak, and the long-short tug-of-war is intensified. |
Week24 Weekly Report Conclusion
Market Bias
The overall market is in a potential weakening phase after the shock, with the following characteristics constituting the bearish bias this week:
- The capital structure is divided, with Asia supporting the market and U.S. capital withdrawing. The market value of USDT has risen for the sixth consecutive week, with a weekly increase of US$1 billion, indicating that Asian capital is still actively deploying. On the other hand, USDC has stopped growing for three consecutive weeks, with a decrease of 0.45% this week, indicating that the sentiment of U.S. capital has turned conservative.
- Technically, the key support zone is at a high level, and the risk of breaking is increasing . BTC is in a high-level oscillation zone of $105k-$108k, and has failed to break through the pressure. According to the on-chain STH cost model and 111DMA ($95.2k), if it breaks below $101k, it will quickly test the $97k support zone and trigger a chain liquidation of long orders.
- Sentiment turned sharply from optimistic to conservative, and panic was not fully released . The market sentiment index dropped from 65% last week to 48% this week, quickly entering the fear zone. The volatility smile curve of the options market showed a strong demand for downside protection, indicating that market expectations are still biased towards a correction.
- On-chain activity is sluggish, and risk signals are increasing. FRM (Fee Ratio Multiple) has risen to a high level again, indicating that on-chain trading activities are quiet and lack substantial momentum. Combined with historical data, high FRM usually corresponds to the risk of medium-term price decline.
Suitable transaction types at this stage
Short-term traders: high-altitude low-coverage, strict risk control
It is recommended to open a short position at the pressure level near $108k. A break below $104k can be seen as a signal to increase investment. If it rebounds strongly and stabilizes at $110k, you need to stop loss and exit.
Mid- to long-term investors: wait and see patiently, don’t rush into the market
In the absence of on-chain activity and a clear trend, it is safer to hold the coins and wait and see; wait until the price falls below the key support and forms a reversal signal before making any arrangements.
Short, medium and long-term operation suggestions
| Operation cycle | suggestion |
| short term | Mainly high altitude, observe $101k defense |
| Mid-term | Consider opening a long position when it approaches $97k |
| long | Waiting for the FRM/Fear Index to bottom out and for clear signals of fund replenishment |
Focus and reminders
- There are many leveraged long orders below $101k~$102k, and there is a risk of liquidation after the price falls below $101k~$102k.
- The implied volatility skew in the options market has increased, and the demand for short protection has risen
- USDC continues to shrink, and US capital risk appetite declines
- Bitfinex whales are reducing their positions and the end of the game is coming. Whether the main players take over will be a turning point.
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