On June 13, 2025, at dawn, Israel launched the "Lion's Rise Operation", attacking multiple cities, military bases, and nuclear facilities in Iran. Recently, Iran's largest crypto exchange Nobitex was hacked by Israeli hackers, causing losses of tens of millions of dollars in stablecoins. Bitcoin quietly fluctuated amid the smoke of war, rising close to $110,000 before falling again. From 2020 to 2025, multiple major war conflicts have demonstrated Bitcoin's sensitive reaction to geopolitical events. This article will deeply analyze the impact of major war conflicts on Bitcoin's price trends over the past five years and the recovery trajectory of the crypto market after wars.
Watershed Moment of Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Market Volatility in Early War
The Russia-Ukraine conflict fully erupted on February 24, 2022, with speculation that Russian funds would flow into cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, causing Bitcoin's price to surge 20%, briefly exceeding $45,000. At the same moment, Russian oligarchs attempted to transfer frozen assets through Bitcoin, seemingly confirming the "crisis value" of cryptocurrencies.
However, in the long term, as the war pushed European natural gas prices to historical peaks and the Federal Reserve was forced to launch the most aggressive rate hikes in forty years, Bitcoin experienced a 65% crash in 2022. Although this decline cannot be entirely attributed to the war, geopolitical uncertainty undoubtedly exacerbated market pessimism.
Data source: bitscrunch.com
Interestingly, the war's continuity provided a new narrative support for Bitcoin. The Ukrainian government raised millions of dollars in crypto donations, highlighting the unique value of digital currencies under limited traditional financial systems. Meanwhile, facing Western sanctions, Russia also turned to cryptocurrencies to some extent as a tool to circumvent sanctions, further strengthening Bitcoin's position as an alternative financial instrument.
It's worth noting that in 2014, Bitcoin entered a long-term bear market after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. However, by 2022, Bitcoin had developed into a larger, stronger asset class more accepted by institutional investors.
If Bitcoin demonstrates good risk resistance during wartime, institutional investors may increase its weight in their portfolios. Conversely, if performance is poor, it may face pressure of capital outflows. Based on recent performance, Bitcoin's relative stability during geopolitical crises may enhance its status among institutional investors.
Conclusion
Looking ahead, with continuous technological advancement and gradual improvement of regulatory frameworks, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin are expected to play a more important role in the global financial system. Although short-term challenges and volatility may persist, its position as a crucial financial instrument in the digital era has been initially established.
In this era of uncertainty, digital assets like Bitcoin are redefining our understanding of currency, value storage, and financial systems. Although the path may be challenging, the historical significance and potential value of this transformation cannot be ignored.
