Bitcoin continues to demonstrate remarkable market resilience, with 88% of its circulating supply currently in profit despite recent volatility. The cryptocurrency has rebounded impressively from its April lows near $75,000 to consolidate above $94,000, underscoring robust underlying demand. According to Glassnode data, the MVRV ratio has cooled to 1.74, a level historically associated with consolidation phases. This reset mirrors patterns observed in August 2022, where trimmed unrealized gains typically preceded further market movements. The current market structure suggests strong support levels and indicates that Bitcoin is building a solid foundation for potential future growth. As of June 2025, these metrics paint an optimistic picture for Bitcoin's continued strength in the cryptocurrency ecosystem.
Bitcoin Supply in Profit at 88% Signals Strong Market Support
Bitcoin's market resilience is evident as 88% of its circulating supply remains in profit, despite recent volatility. The cryptocurrency has rebounded from April lows NEAR $75,000 to consolidate above $94,000, showcasing robust underlying demand.
Glassnode data reveals a cooling MVRV ratio at 1.74, historically indicative of consolidation phases. This reset mirrors August 2022's pattern, where trimmed unrealized gains preceded another upward trajectory. The Realized Profit/Loss Ratio exceeding 1.0 further underscores market strength.
Bitcoin Bullish Signal: Investors Withdraw Big From Binance
Bitcoin's exchange reserves on Binance have plummeted since mid-April, signaling potential bullish momentum for BTC. The Exchange Reserve metric, which tracks BTC held in centralized exchange wallets, shows a sharp decline—suggesting investors are moving coins off-platform. Large-scale withdrawals often precede price rallies, as reduced sell-side liquidity tightens supply.
Binance, the world's largest crypto exchange by volume, saw its BTC reserves drop significantly according to CryptoQuant data. When exchange reserves rise, it typically indicates depositors preparing to sell. The inverse scenario now unfolding hints at accumulation behavior among large holders.
Bitcoin Signals S&P 500 Rally as Risk-On Sentiment Strengthens
Bitcoin's resurgence above its April 2nd level is flashing a bullish signal for equity markets, with Fundstrat's Tom Lee predicting the S&P 500 could climb to 5,800 in the near term. The cryptocurrency's historical role as a leading indicator for risk appetite appears intact as investors digest fading tariff concerns and await Federal Reserve policy cues.
"Bitcoin is telling us the S&P should recover towards the 5800 level," Lee noted, reiterating his earlier 5,500 call that the market achieved without resistance. The macro backdrop has improved since April's tariff panic peaked on April 7, creating fertile ground for the crypto-equity correlation to play out.
Bitcoin at Critical Decision Point as Supply Clusters Signal Market Inflection
Bitcoin faces a pivotal moment as on-chain analysis reveals concentrated supply clusters around current price levels. The UTXO Realized Price Distribution shows significant BTC holdings were acquired near $60,000-$65,000, creating potential support or resistance zones.
Analyst Checkmate highlights two massive supply clusters that could determine Bitcoin's next directional move. This congestion zone represents a battleground where accumulated positions may either fuel continuation or trigger profit-taking.
Market participants are closely watching whether these supply concentrations will act as springboard for upward momentum or become overhead resistance. The current retest of this key level comes amid mixed sentiment across crypto markets.
Strategy Expands Bitcoin Holdings to 555,450 BTC with $95,167 Average Purchase Price
Strategy, formerly known as Microstrategy, has significantly bolstered its Bitcoin treasury with the acquisition of 6,556 BTC at an average price of $95,167 per coin. The purchase, executed between April 28 and May 4, was disclosed in a recent SEC filing. The company now holds 555,450 BTC, valued at approximately $38.08 billion, with an average cost basis of $68,550 per coin.
Funding for the latest acquisition was secured through a mix of common and preferred stock sales. Strategy raised $128.5 million via its common stock at-the-market program and an additional $51.8 million from the sale of STRK preferred shares. This transaction exhausts the company's previous $21 billion ATM offering capacity.
Three Potential Barriers to Bitcoin's All-Time High in 2024
Bitcoin's path to a new all-time high this year faces significant headwinds, according to economist and bitcoin researcher Timothy Peterson. Despite his bullish projection of BTC reaching $135,000 within three months, Peterson highlights three critical risks that could derail the rally.
Consumer and investor sentiment metrics paint a concerning picture. The UMich consumer sentiment survey shows deteriorating trends, while AAII investor sentiment reflects a stark 20% bullish versus 60% bearish stance—a gap that continues to widen. The NAAIM Equity Exposure index, though at 60% allocation, remains below the 80% threshold typically associated with bull markets.
Continued erosion in market psychology emerges as the primary threat. "When sentiment fails to recover, it creates a self-reinforcing cycle of caution," Peterson observes. The convergence of weak retail and institutional metrics suggests broader risk appetite may not support crypto's ascent.
