Article source: Words Beyond Words
If we take January 2023 as the starting point of this bull market, then up to now, this bull market has lasted approximately 890 days. And if we take October 2023 as the starting point of this bull market (based on Bitcoin's price breaking through the 2022 high), then this bull market has also lasted about 595 days. As shown in the following image.
Additionally, from the overall trend, this round of Bitcoin's trend is somewhat similar to the trend in 2021. If you like to measure a running stream with a fixed ruler, then there might be two possible paths ahead:
One is similar to the trend around September 2021, where Bitcoin will enter a new correction, possibly retracing to around $95,000, then making another surge, potentially rising above $150,000, after which some Altcoins will complete a brief crazy performance, and the market will enter a new bear market cycle.
Another is similar to the trend around November 2021, where Bitcoin will break through its historical high again, after which some Altcoins will complete a brief crazy performance, and the market will enter a new bear market cycle.
However, I noticed that some people online believe Bitcoin will reach $200,000 before the end of this year, which we consider a very optimistic prediction. In other words, if Bitcoin truly reaches $200,000 before the end of this year (for example, around September), then the subsequent bear market cycle might see Bitcoin's bottom at $50,000-$60,000 (around the fourth quarter of 2026), and the next bull market might see Bitcoin's price reach $350,000-$400,000 (around the fourth quarter of 2028 or the second quarter of 2029).
Of course, these are just casual guesses based on past patterns, and the market is difficult to predict accurately, as no one knows what new black swan events might occur. But regardless of Bitcoin's path or whether it reaches $200,000, if you still believe history can rhyme, then the time left in this bull market cycle seems limited, perhaps only a few months.
What we actually want to express is that each bull market cycle is not continuously presenting a parabolic rise, but always includes relatively healthy declines (corrections). If you haven't made money in the past 600+ days of the bull market, or you had made money but lost it again, then you should carefully think about and optimize your trading strategy.
Simply put, the market cannot sustain a continuous bull market, and the bull market cannot make most people truly earn money - this is the cruel reality we must accept. Don't try to predict the exact top during a bull market; the most important thing during a bull market is to seize appropriate moments for staged profit-taking, rather than always wanting to sell perfectly at the top.
Moreover, if you firmly believe in the long-term narrative of an asset (like Bitcoin), then by extending your investment cycle and avoiding unnecessary tinkering, the probability of losing money seems relatively low. However, as someone who has been through this, this is easier said than done, because we've seen too many people entering this field fantasizing about it being their personal ATM, hoping to quickly turn small investments into big gains.
If we focus on a long-term investment perspective, we can gradually optimize and improve our trading strategy through some methodologies, such as:
1. Master Necessary Basic Knowledge
I remember many comments would ask questions like: What do you think about XXX coin? Can I hold XXX coin long-term? How high can XXX coin go?
Then I would sometimes ask them to list three simple reasons for buying this XXX coin, and most people couldn't explain why they bought it, basically buying it after a teacher's recommendation, buying because someone said it had potential, or buying because the project's promotional copy seemed impressive...
The outcome for most of these people is predictable - either losing their principal or being completely scammed. Those who truly make money through teacher recommendations or personal luck are extremely rare.
Some people heard that trading is risky, so they plan to do airdrops or play on-chain finance. Some airdrop enthusiasts spend days searching for airdrop tutorials on Twitter or Google, interacting with numerous new projects and consuming multiple gas fees, ultimately only acquiring useless NFT images or increasing others' ranking points. Some people who want to play on-chain finance add liquidity to various pools, only to find that the high APY advertised was never achieved, and they became liquidity providers while others were eyeing their principal. Some were even phished, resulting in their wallet assets being completely emptied.
Actually, in this field, if you're just investing, you don't need to learn advanced techniques, but necessary basic knowledge should be prioritized. For example, if you like financial management, the basic knowledge you should master includes:
- Concepts of DEX and CEX, and the differences in their financial product models
- What is single-coin financial management, dual-coin financial management (Impermanent Loss)
- What is lending finance, and corresponding platforms and approaches (Aave, etc.)
- What is Liquidity Mining, and corresponding platforms and approaches (Uniswap, etc.)
- What is Staking, and corresponding platforms and approaches (Lido, etc.)
- Various yield aggregators, stablecoin strategies, structured products, reStaking...
- On-chain tools for financial management, on-chain data for reference, and most importantly, protocol security assessment, etc.
In summary, you need to first sort out and learn basic concepts related to financial management, then choose the most suitable products and approaches based on your preferences and risk tolerance, maintaining focus and continuous research.
2. Optimize Position Profit Strategy
Regarding position management and trading strategy, we have already organized many discussions in previous articles. The core is essentially one sentence: maintain focus.
In previous articles, we shared that some people can achieve earnings of hundreds of thousands or even millions of dollars by continuously trading small amounts across hundreds of MEME coins using trading bots, but this approach is clearly not suitable for most retail investors.
For ordinary retail investors like us, focus often trumps quantity. Don't try to buy everything (and you don't have enough funds to allocate), and don't chase after whatever is trending. The optimal approach is to focus on 1-2 fields you believe in most.
If we look at the detailed fields classified on Coingecko, there are currently over 500 niche areas in the crypto market, such as DeFi, RWA, AI, GameFi, DePIN, etc. The platform has already listed over 17,000 projects (tokens), and it is basically impossible for one person to thoroughly research all projects in every field. Therefore, we should just pick 1-2 tracks we are most optimistic about for in-depth research and project tracking, and try to limit the number of projects (tokens) we buy and hold to 5 or fewer.
On this basis, you can further plan your positions according to your risk appetite, such as what percentage of positions are allocated to Bitcoin, what percentage to Altcoins, what percentage to MEME coins, etc.
Then, under each percentage, how much is for long-term investment, how much for medium/short-term investment, what are the profit targets, whether to set clear take-profit/stop-loss for medium/short-term investments, etc.
In short, when we can maintain focus on specific matters, strictly execute our trading discipline on the system (a trading strategy and indicators suitable for ourselves), and grasp the rules or rhythm of the cycle, we will not be easily eliminated by the market.
3. Cultivate Specific Abilities and Strengths
Everyone is an independent individual, and everyone will have their own abilities or strengths. When you have mastered the necessary basic knowledge and can optimize your position's profit strategy well, the next step is to continuously upgrade yourself.
This may need to be considered in combination with your interests, such as:
If you like writing, you might as well open a media channel like Li Huawei, so you can continuously output your thoughts periodically, because output is a better learning method compared to input (output-based learning). Of course, if you are currently shy and unwilling to publicly share your ideas, you can also try creating a personal knowledge base on some note-taking platforms or sharing within a specific circle.
If you like speaking, you can record some of your learning results or thought summaries on video platforms, or interact with others through live streaming, gaining intellectual collisions through continuous "face-to-face" communication.
If you like data, you can try collecting various on-chain tools you find useful, creating a toolbox (such as tools from different perspectives like airdrops, arbitrage, financial management, copy trading, whale watching), to conduct more targeted in-depth research on markets and projects you're interested in, finding Alpha opportunities that others might not see temporarily.
If you like technology, you can consider learning some basic coding or programming knowledge, or if you like candlestick charts, you can find professional materials or books for necessary research... and so on.
In short, in any field, if we want to avoid being eliminated by the market and continuously obtain returns or results, we need to persistently upgrade ourselves and stay ahead of others. Although sometimes a person's luck might temporarily put them in a leading position, what is ultimately compared is a person's professional level. Rather than yearning for fish from the shore, it's better to weave a net.
4. Cross-Expansion in Multiple Domains
This might be an aspect that many people currently overlook, such as someone who loves the crypto field but simultaneously rejects or looks down on stock markets, forex markets, and other fields.
In the past, this thinking might have worked, but now (and in the future), it seems it won't work anymore, because the current crypto market is no longer a niche retail market; it has begun to become a money (financial) game involving more and more institutions (and even some countries).
We not only need to pay attention to changes in the crypto market itself but also need to appropriately pay attention to stock markets (especially the US stock market), macroeconomic trends, and even international political situations. In other words, while we can focus specifically on Bitcoin in trading execution, knowing only Bitcoin is not enough (even if you have memorized the Bitcoin whitepaper and thoroughly researched its code). To better achieve or reach trading goals, you might need to simultaneously track trends like gold, US stocks, etc. If you are proficient in something but cannot achieve effective profit goals, it is actually a form of time-wasting.
Besides related fields, depending on individual time and energy, we can even consider expanding or exploring external knowledge in other domains.
Of course, besides what we mentioned above, there is an even more important point: maintaining physical health. This field trades 7x24 hours, but our bodies need rest and moderate exercise. Do not sacrifice your health directly for chasing potential profits.
