QCP: If the Fed meeting implies only one rate cut in 2025, it may be bad news for risky assets such as Bitcoin

Planet News: QCP Capital reported that the conflict between Israel and Iran entered its sixth day, with continuous missile exchanges and dim prospects for diplomatic resolution. G7 leaders repeatedly called on Iran to return to nuclear negotiations with the US, with the originally scheduled talks this Sunday likely to be cancelled. The market is focusing on the potential restructuring of Middle Eastern power dynamics and the proxy game between the US, Russia, and China. The Hormuz Strait has become a focal point, with concerns that if Iran is pushed to desperation, it might block this critical global oil transportation route, triggering supply shocks and inflation risks. President Trump demanded Iran's "unconditional surrender," with the market generally expecting Iran might partially or fully capitulate, though the situation remains highly uncertain. Against the backdrop of geopolitical conflict and rising inflation pressures, the Federal Reserve faces a complex scenario in tonight's monetary policy meeting. The market currently prices in two rate cuts in 2025 and two more in 2026, but QCP Asia anticipates the Fed might adopt a more cautious tone in its economic projection summary (SEP), potentially suggesting only one rate cut in 2025, which would contrast with market expectations. If the Fed makes such an adjustment, it could pressure risk assets, including Bitcoin and the broader digital asset market.