Last week (June 11 - June 16), due to geopolitical tensions, the market experienced significant volatility, with BTC showing resilience by quickly rebounding after a decline. On June 12-13, market risk aversion increased due to escalating Middle East tensions and Trump's uncertain tariff policies, causing BTC to drop to a low of $102,664.31, with a maximum weekly decline of 7%. However, BTC quickly rebounded and returned to the $104,000 - $105,000 range. On the 16th, driven by favorable market news and continued inflows into BTC spot ETFs, BTC reached a high of $107,715, currently stabilizing around $106,615. ETH maintained a synchronized trend with BTC, with a maximum weekly volatility of 15.35%, and is currently priced at approximately $2,576 (Binance, June 17, 15:20).
Last week, the Iran conflict escalated, and the three major US stock indices fell by over 1%. On Monday, the situation temporarily eased, with US stocks rebounding, and the Nasdaq rising 1.52%, with the S&P 500 returning above 6,000 points.
Market Interpretation
US May CPI Declines, Rate Cut Expectations Increase
The US May CPI was lower than market expectations, with the core inflation indicator slowing for four consecutive months. CPI year-on-year increased by 2.4%, and the core CPI monthly rate was only 0.1%, both below expectations, indicating weakening inflation stickiness. After the data release, S&P 500 index futures turned positive, and the 10-year US Treasury yield fell to 4.1%, with the market raising the probability of a Fed rate cut in September to 85%. Although the core CPI year-on-year remains above the 2% target, short-term food price declines and tariff impacts have yet to show, leaving room for Fed easing policies. Subsequent decisions may rely more on core PCE data. Trump publicly called for rate cuts, further strengthening market easing expectations. Overall, macroeconomic signals are relatively optimistic, with risk appetite showing a short-term recovery.
Middle East Tensions Escalate, Global Risk Aversion Rises, Crypto Market Faces Short-term Pressure
In mid-June, the intelligence war between Israel and Iran escalated with large-scale airstrikes, dramatically increasing geopolitical risks. Gold broke through $3,400, oil rose to around $90, and global stock markets were generally under pressure. The crypto market simultaneously declined, with BTC falling to around $103,000 on June 13, a 24-hour drop of 3.5%; ETH dropped over 8%, SOL fell nearly 9.5%, and the CD 20 index dropped 6.1%. This was mainly due to safe-haven funds flowing into gold and the US dollar, declining local Iranian demand, and the sell-off of high-volatility assets. However, by Monday, the market had largely digested the geopolitical conflict, with BTC and ETH showing strong resilience and quickly rebounding. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose 0.94% and 1.5% respectively, while gold fell 1.5%. Market focus is gradually shifting to the FOMC meeting and crypto market institutional developments.
GENIUS Bill Advances, Stablecoin Regulation Enters a New Stage
Last week, the US Senate supported the GENIUS Stablecoin Bill with a 68:30 vote to enter full chamber debate, marking a substantial progress in stablecoin regulation. The bill establishes a compliance framework and clarifies the legal status of USD-pegged payment stablecoins, receiving broad bipartisan support. Supporters believe the framework will enhance transparency and promote stablecoin payment applications, while opponents worry that high barriers may limit innovation and squeeze out smaller issuers. If successfully passed, mainstream stablecoins like USDC and USDT are expected to benefit directly, potentially accelerating market consolidation, and the legislative progress will also influence global digital asset regulation.
US Senate Advances GENIUS Bill, Stablecoin Regulation Reaches a Milestone
Last week, the US Senate supported the GENIUS Stablecoin Bill with a 68:30 vote to enter full chamber debate, marking substantial progress in stablecoin regulation. The bill establishes a compliance framework for USD-pegged payment stablecoins and clarifies their legal status, achieving rare bipartisan consensus. Supporters believe the GENIUS framework will enhance market transparency and promote stablecoin payment applications. Opponents worry that high barriers may limit innovation and squeeze out smaller issuers. If successfully passed, mainstream stablecoins like USDC and USDT will directly benefit, potentially accelerating market consolidation. The legislative progress will also influence the global digital asset regulatory path.
Market Highlights
Preliminary US-China Trade Agreement Reached, Rare Earth and Tariffs Become Negotiation Focus
Last week, the US and China reached a preliminary trade agreement, with China promising to pre-supply rare earth materials to the US to alleviate industrial supply chain pressure, in exchange for US export tariffs set at 55% (China at 10%). Although the tariffs are lower than previously expected, they remain higher than historical averages, bringing pressure to both economies. Overall, the temporary easing has not changed the high-risk confrontation and uncertainty main theme.
JPMorgan Chase Expands Crypto Payment, "JPMD" Trademark Sparks Stablecoin Innovation Expectations
JPMorgan Chase recently applied for the "JPMD" trademark in the US, covering multiple crypto services including digital asset trading, payment, and clearing, potentially paving the way for its own stablecoin and blockchain financial applications. Previous reports suggested that JPMorgan Chase and other major banks are studying a joint USD stablecoin to accelerate cross-border and daily payment efficiency. Currently, JPM Coin has processed over $1.5 trillion in inter-bank blockchain payments.
Trump Media Approved for $23 Billion BTC Reserve, Personal Crypto Income Reaches $57.35 Million
Trump Media and Technology Group (DJT) was approved by the SEC for $23 billion in financing this week, planning to allocate most funds to BTC, aiming to become the world's third-largest enterprise-level BTC holder. Simultaneously disclosed, Trump earned $57.35 million through a family crypto platform in 2024, surpassing his traditional business. The company positions BTC as a "core financial asset" to strengthen its asset structure. Despite actively pursuing a crypto strategy, DJT's stock price has fallen 42% this year, with revenues far below losses, and the market doubts its profitability model and valuation. Industry analysts note that the trend of listed companies allocating BTC is accelerating, with related fluctuations and risks warranting continued attention.
Circle Goes Public, Surging Nearly 390% in Ten Days, Stablecoin Leader Drives Industry Mainstreaming
Global leading stablecoin issuer Circle (CRCL) was listed on the NYSE on June 5, becoming the first stablecoin company to successfully complete an IPO. On its first trading day, Circle's stock price rose 168%, with its market capitalization exceeding $21 billion. To date, Circle's stock price has risen nearly 390% in ten days, with its latest market value approaching $36.7 billion. As the "first stablecoin stock," Circle has pioneered a compliant public listing, becoming a symbolic event of industry legalization and capitalization.
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