Chainfeeds Briefing:
The overall direction of the crypto market will only truly become apparent after September.
Article Source:
https://x.com/JoshuaDeuk/status/1934115504769417466
Article Author:
Joshua | MOZAIK
Perspective:
Joshua | MOZAIK: Based on recent market performance, the rally of most Altcoins (excluding Bitcoin) is primarily driven by a "short squeeze" scenario. Traders are chasing the rally influenced by previous rebounds, but this time there are no genuine long-term holders, with many already trapped. As expected, tokens with sharp rallies subsequently experienced equally sharp corrections. Ethereum showed an unexpected rebound, with sectors previously experiencing the largest declines, such as AI and Altcoins, leading this rally. On the other hand, tokens with real use cases, strong fundamentals, or buyback mechanisms demonstrated more resilience - performing more steadily during corrections and rebounding faster. Syrup, Hype, and AAVE are good examples; while tokens like SPX, though Altcoins, have entirely different structures. From this, we can draw several conclusions: 1) Bitcoin's demand is genuine and persistent. Traditional capital is gradually entering through compliant channels like ETFs. The current funding nature supporting BTC is vastly different from previous cycles, so massive BTC liquidations (like position liquidations) are unlikely unless a macro event occurs. 2) Differentiation within Altcoins will further expand. Capital will eventually flow back to Altcoins, but not comprehensively - only tokens with clear utility and real use cases will attract funds. This is why I'm optimistic about ETH outperforming SOL: regulatory clarity, increased DeFi usage, deflationary mechanisms, and staking demand create a powerful positive feedback loop. Moreover, ETH has underperformed for an extended period, with marginal buyers still observing. 3) VC-backed tokens carry structural risks. Token unlocks will continue to pressure prices. Insufficient liquidity and ongoing selling pressure from validators and early investors suppress price increases. This is why I believe excessively valued tokens listed on centralized exchanges are not advisable investments. Cosmos tokens face continuous selling pressure due to validator reward structures. 4) In the current environment, Altcoins have structural advantages. No VC unlocks, fair distribution, 100% driven by attention. It's a pure hype mechanism - as effective as the first cycle. However, I believe this phase is ending. Pump.fun's token issuance and Trump coin's launch mark the peak of attention. Subsequently, Altcoin enthusiasm began to wane. Even during April's rebound, SOL underperformed ETH - when most already hold, who are the marginal buyers as hype subsides? Some Altcoins might still perform, especially those going viral on platforms beyond Crypto Twitter like TikTok and Instagram, or those driven by charismatic figures like MURAD. But the era of "cute dog and cat coins" as arbitrage opportunities has passed. Only Altcoins with powerful narratives and mental share - those people are collectively willing to believe in - have genuine speculative value. 【Twitter threads】
