Author: Hotcoin Research
Cryptocurrency Market Performance
Currently, the total cryptocurrency market cap is $3.34 trillion, with BTC accounting for 61.55%, which is $2.06 trillion.Stablecoin market cap is $251.5 billion, with a 7-day increase of 0.63%, of which USDT accounts for 62.14%.
This week, BTC price shows range-bound oscillation, currently at $105,300; ETH also shows range-bound oscillation, currently at $2,551.
CoinMarketCap Among the top 200 projects, a small portion rose while most declined, including: KAIA with a 7-day increase of 45.16%, AERO with a 7-day increase of 45.15%, AB with a 7-day increase of 43.15%, RVN with a 7-day increase of 43.63%.
This week, US Bitcoin spot ETF net inflow: $1.3703 billion; US Ethereum spot ETF net inflow: $527.6 million.
The "Fear & Greed Index" on June 14 was 52 (higher than last week), with market sentiment: 4 days neutral, 3 days greedy.
Market Forecast:
This week saw continued stablecoin issuance, significant net inflows into US Bitcoin spot ETF, and net inflows into Ethereum spot ETF. BTC and ETH remain range-bound. The RSI index is 39.65, showing weakness, with the Altcoin season index at 24. The US May CPI and PPI indices were in line with market expectations, and the impact of tariffs on inflation has not yet been apparent. The Fear & Greed Index remains between neutral and greedy.
The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in June is only 2.2%, with rate cuts expected to begin in Q3 this year. The market has absorbed the expectation of no rate cut in June, so next week's rate announcement will not have a significant impact. BTC price is expected to be in the range of $102,000-$107,000 next week. The current Israel-Iran conflict is quite sharp, and in the short term, the market may experience a downturn due to its impact. However, in the long term, the bull market is preparing for its final sprint. If the US stablecoin bill is officially passed in August and the Federal Reserve cuts rates in September, it may trigger a significant price increase. Currently, it is recommended to buy on dips.
Understanding the Present
Weekly Major Events Review
1. On June 9, according to crypto journalist Eleanor Terrett, an alternative amendment to the clear digital asset market bill 'CLARITY Act' has been released. This alternative amendment is an updated version of the submitted bill, including recent amendments and new content. The text will serve as the basis for the Republican review on the House Financial Services Committee this Tuesday;
2. On June 9, according to Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, BlackRock's IBIT holdings broke through $70 billion, becoming the fastest ETF to reach this milestone in just 341 days, which is 5 times faster than the old record held by GLD of 1,691 days;
3. On June 10, the Ethereum Foundation announced the release of the first 1TS report, outlining the existing security challenges in the Ethereum ecosystem, following the announcement of the "Trillion-Scale Security" (1TS) plan last month;
4. On June 11, the meme project Slerf posted product screenshots on its official Twitter, hinting at the potential launch of a token issuance platform called Slerrrfpad;
5. On June 12, the US Senate passed the procedural vote for the GENIUS Stablecoin Act with a vote of 68 to 30, which will initiate full Senate debate and final voting. If passed, it will be submitted to the House for further review;
6. On June 11, according to Bloomberg, payment company Stripe agreed to acquire crypto wallet provider Privy, building on its recent acquisition of stablecoin infrastructure company Bridge. Transaction terms have not been disclosed. Privy helps companies integrate crypto wallets into user experiences and has provided technical support for platforms like OpenSea;
7. On June 11, Sonic Labs announced the launch of the second season S token airdrop on June 18;
8. On June 13, Israeli Defense Minister Katz stated that after Israel's attack on Iran, missile and drone attacks against Israel and its civilians are expected in the near future;
9. On June 13, Coinbase announced the launch of perpetual contracts in the US;
10. On June 12, according to The Information, sources revealed that a little-known company at the core of the US financial system is exploring issuing a stablecoin, which could accelerate the application of digital assets in various markets. This company is the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC), which is responsible for clearing stock trades in the US;
11. On June 13, according to Bitcoin Magazine, Japanese mobile game studio Gumi purchased 1 billion yen (approximately $6.96 million) worth of Bitcoin.
Macroeconomic Landscape
1. On June 12, Canadian listed company Matador acquired 5.38 Bitcoins. After this acquisition, Matador Technologies' total Bitcoin (and Bitcoin equivalent assets) holdings have reached approximately 69 coins;
2. On June 13, according to an official announcement, Japanese listed company Remixpoint recently added 56.87 Bitcoins, valued at approximately $5.915 million (887 million yen), with an average price of about $104,000 per coin. This purchase brings its Bitcoin holdings to 1,038.27 coins, breaking the 1,000-coin milestone;
3. On June 11, Trump stated on the Truth social platform that an agreement with China is near. China will supply rare earth elements; the US will provide terms including student enrollment; US tariffs are set at 55%, and Chinese tariffs at 10%;
4. On June 11, the US May unadjusted CPI year-on-year rate was 2.4%, with market expectations of 2.5%. The US May unadjusted CPI month-on-month rate was 0.1%, with market expectations of 0.2%. The US May seasonally adjusted core CPI month-on-month rate was 0.1%, with market expectations of 0.3%. The US May unadjusted core CPI year-on-year rate was 2.8%, with market expectations of 2.9%;
5. On June 12, US initial jobless claims for the week ending June 7 were 248,000, with expectations of 240,000;
6. On May 31, according to CME "Fed Watch", the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in June was 2.2%, with a 97.8% probability of remaining unchanged.
ETF
According to statistics, from June 9 to June 13,US Bitcoin spot ETF net inflow: $1.3703 billion; as of June 13, GBTC (Grayscale) has a total outflow of $23.193 billion, currently holding $19.468 billion, while IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $70.132 billion.
The total market value of US Bitcoin spot ETFs is: $129.738 billion.
US Ethereum spot ETF net inflow: $527.6 million.
Anticipating the Future
Event Announcements
1. NFT NYC 2026 will be held from June 23 to 25, 2025, in New York, USA;
2. Permissionless IV will be held from June 24 to 26, 2025, in New York, USA;
3. EthCC 8 will be held from June 30 to July 3, 2025, in Cannes, France;
4. IVS2025 KYOTO will be held in Kyoto, Japan from July 2 to 4, 2025.
Project Progress
1. ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF ARKB will undergo a 3:1 stock split on June 16 to make the fund more accessible to investors. The company stated that this stock split will not affect ARKB's net asset value, stock ticker, or investment strategy, and its shares will continue to trade under the same CUSIP;
2. Decentralized social protocol Farcaster is expected to launch 3 professional subscription benefits in the week of June 16, including: 10K character content posting, 4 embedded features (including images, videos, URLs, CA, and mini-apps), and a new profile banner image feature;
3. Lido has gradually shut down its staking service on Polygon, with a transition period from December 16, 2024, to June 16, 2025. On June 16, 2025, front-end support will end, and withdrawals can only be made through browser tools;
4. Nansen Points Season 1 will launch on June 17, with users' current staking, subscription, invitation, and other actions on Nansen being counted towards their points balance on that day.
Important Events
1. To commemorate the 250th anniversary of the US Army, the United States will hold a large-scale military parade and celebration in the capital Washington on June 14. This parade coincides with the birthday of US President Donald Trump and Flag Day;
2. On June 17, the Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision;
3. On June 18, the US will release weekly initial jobless claims;
4. The US Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision on June 18;
5. The Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision by June 19;
6. On June 19, Japan will release the May core CPI year-on-year rate.
Token Unlocks
1. ApeCoin (APE) will unlock 1,538 tokens on June 17, valued at approximately $10.53 million, representing 1.54% of circulating supply;
2. Cronos (CRO) will unlock 1.17 billion tokens on June 17, valued at approximately $107 million, representing 1.17% of circulating supply;
3. Pixels (PIXEL) will unlock 89.37 million tokens on June 19, valued at approximately $3.43 million, representing 1.79% of circulating supply;
4. Polyhedra Network (ZKJ) will unlock 15.5 million tokens on June 19, valued at approximately $30.89 million, representing 1.55% of circulating supply;
5. Zksync (ZK) will unlock 759 million tokens on June 19, valued at approximately $39.13 million, representing 3.62% of circulating supply;
6. Bittensor (TAO) will unlock 216,000 tokens on June 21, valued at approximately $81.05 million, representing 1.03% of circulating supply.
About Us
Hotcoin Research, as the core research and investment hub of the Hotcoin ecosystem, focuses on providing professional in-depth analysis and forward-looking insights for global crypto asset investors. We build a three-in-one service system of "trend judgment + value mining + real-time tracking", offering precise market interpretation and practical strategies for investors at different levels through comprehensive analysis of crypto industry trends, multi-dimensional assessment of potential projects, and round-the-clock market fluctuation monitoring, combined with the bi-weekly "Hotcoin Strict Selection" strategy live broadcast and daily "Blockchain Today's Headlines" news briefing. Leveraging cutting-edge data analysis models and industry resource networks, we continuously empower new investors to establish cognitive frameworks and help professional institutions capture alpha returns, jointly seizing value growth opportunities in the Web3 era.
Risk Warning
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investment inherently carries risks. We strongly recommend that investors invest only after fully understanding these risks and within a strict risk management framework to ensure the safety of funds.
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