On June 13, 2025, in the global financial markets - with the sudden escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the cryptocurrency market encountered a "black swan" impact. Israel launched a military strike against Iran in the early hours of today, triggering a surge in global risk aversion. Bitcoin (BTC) plummeted from $106,000 to $103,000 within just a few hours, a drop of over 2.3%, Ethereum (ETH) simultaneously fell to $2,500, and Solana (SOL) further dropped to $143.

According to Coinglass data, the global liquidation in the past 24 hours reached 200,000 people, with a liquidation amount exceeding $1.011 billion, creating the largest single-day settlement scale in June 2025. This market turmoil triggered by military conflict once again exposed the fragility of cryptocurrencies.

I. Trigger: Israel's "Strength of a Lion" Operation and the Middle East Powder Keg

08:01:16 Explosions in Tehran Mark the Beginning

According to Al Jazeera, consecutive explosions were heard in Tehran, the capital of Iran, in the early morning of June 13. Subsequently, Israeli Defense Minister Katz announced a military strike codenamed "Strength of a Lion", targeting dozens of nuclear facilities and military bases within Iran. This operation is considered a retaliatory response to the breakdown of negotiations on Iran's nuclear program. Although the United States clearly stated that it did not participate in this attack, the Pentagon's cancellation of the Central Command commander's visit to Israel and the withdrawal of non-essential personnel from the Middle East have implied the uncontrollability of the situation.

08:05:09 Panic Selling Initiated

After the military operation was made public, Bitcoin began a cliff-like drop at 7:45, with a decline of over 1.5% within 15 minutes. A single liquidation of $201 million for the BTC/USDT contract on Binance became the largest settlement of the year. Panic quickly spread to other mainstream cryptocurrencies, with top 20 cryptocurrencies like Ethereum and Solana generally falling 5%-12%. Market analysts point out that the geopolitical conflict and the high leverage characteristics of cryptocurrencies formed a "resonance effect", accelerating the price collapse.

08:14:15 Israel Launches Air Strike on Iran, Defense Minister Declares National Emergency

The Israeli Air Force launched an attack on Iran on Thursday. The specific targets are unclear, but reports indicate explosions in Tehran. This strike is Israel's direct attack on its largest and most well-equipped opponent without clear US support. It is currently unclear whether Israel has ordered a strike on Iran's nuclear facilities or whether the US opposes this specific action. On Thursday night, air raid sirens sounded across Israel. Israeli Defense Minister Katz declared a special national emergency. Katz stated that after Israel's preemptive strike on Iran, Israeli civilians are expected to be targeted by missiles and drones in the near future. The IDF spokesperson said that from Friday morning, only "necessary" activities will be allowed within Israel.

08:25:16

According to CNN: US President Trump convenes a cabinet-level meeting

Netanyahu Has Informed Trump in Advance that Israel May Attack Iran as Early as Sunday

White House envoy Witkov will meet with Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi in Oman on Sunday to discuss Iran's response to the US nuclear agreement proposal. This meeting and the US assessment of whether there are still ways to reach an agreement may determine whether to continue diplomacy or begin conflict.

Previous Israeli officials stated that the Israeli Defense Forces are on high alert and prepared to quickly strike Iran if Witkov's diplomatic efforts fail this weekend.

According to the Wall Street Journal, Trump administration and Israeli officials said that if Iran rejects US suggestions to impose strict restrictions on its nuclear program, Israel is prepared to attack Iran in the coming days. A senior Israeli official said Israel could launch an attack as early as Sunday.

Two US officials said Netanyahu raised the possibility of striking Iran during a phone conversation with Trump on Monday. Shortly after, the US began evacuating some diplomatic and military family members from the Middle East.

II. Deep-Seated Reasons: Market Fragility Under Multiple Risk Factors

1. Geopolitical Tensions Become the "Last Straw"

This crash is not an isolated incident. Since the beginning of 2025, global geopolitical risks have continued to heat up: Trump's "verbal confrontation" with Ukrainian President Zelensky in February caused Bitcoin to drop 3% in a single day; the military confrontation between Israel and Iran in early June had already caused market unease. This direct military strike completely broke through investors' psychological defense line, becoming the "last straw" that crushed the market. Historical data shows that during geopolitical conflicts, the risk correlation between Bitcoin and gold jumped from -0.2 to 0.5, reflecting the trend of funds fleeing to traditional safe-haven assets.

2. Leverage Bubble and Institutional Selling Pressure

Technical market conditions had long been problematic. On-chain data shows that Bitcoin's uncleared contracts surged 18% in the week before the crash, with derivative exchange leverage rates breaking through 25 times, forming a "long crowding" risk. The US Bitcoin ETF has seen net outflows for 6 consecutive days, with institutional capital withdrawal reaching $644 million, further weakening market support. When the news of Israel's air strike broke, high-leverage long positions were forced to close, triggering a chain reaction of panic selling.

Future Outlook: Turbulent Cycle May Continue for Weeks

1. Short-Term Technical Warning

If Bitcoin breaks below the key support level of $102,000, it is expected to trigger a $640 million long liquidation, with prices potentially dropping to $98,000. Ethereum needs to hold the 2400-2500 USD range to avoid triggering large-scale staking token unlocking and selling.

2. Three Scenarios of Geopolitical Situation

• Optimistic Scenario: US-Iran talks in Oman reach a temporary agreement, Israel stops further strikes, Bitcoin may rebound to $108,000;
• Neutral Scenario: Conflict limited to limited military action, market enters a $105,000-$110,000 range;
• Pessimistic Scenario: Iran retaliates by attacking US military bases, Bitcoin may fall below $90,000, repeating the "Black Tuesday" market of February 2025.

3. Long-Term Value Logic Remains Unchanged

Despite short-term volatility, the deepening application of blockchain technology still provides fundamental support. Global cross-border cryptocurrency payment scale increased by 47% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with countries like El Salvador and the Central African Republic continuing to increase Bitcoin reserves. The Grayscale report shows that institutional investors maintain their target price of $150,000 for Bitcoin by the end of 2025.

Conclusion

The market crash on June 13, 2025, once again confirms the nature of cryptocurrencies as a "global risk sentiment amplifier". In the new normal of intertwined geopolitical and systemic financial risks, investors need to navigate the cycle with a more cautious attitude. As blockchain analyst Lin Xi said: "Only when the tide goes out will you know who has been swimming naked. At this moment, the market is paying the price for the past six months of frenzy."