Written by: Nancy, PANews
At a time when the Solana ecosystem is experiencing a low emotional tide, an ETF news has once again ignited market optimism. On June 11, the US SEC requested potential Solana spot ETF issuers to update their S-1 application documents. This move was seen by the market as a turning signal for Solana ETF entering the substantive review stage, releasing a positive signal from regulators. Driven by this, market expectations for formal approval in July quickly heated up, and the Solana ecosystem subsequently ushered in a widespread rally.
Solana Spot ETF Approval Accelerates, SEC Focuses on Physical Redemption and Staking Mechanism
According to Blockworks, multiple informed sources revealed that the US SEC has notified multiple issuers planning to launch Solana spot ETFs to submit updated S-1 registration statement documents within the next week.
Sources indicated that the SEC will provide review feedback within 30 days after the S-1 file submission, with updates mainly focusing on modifying physical redemption language and handling the staking mechanism, which are becoming core focus points in crypto spot ETF approval processes.
In crypto asset ETF design, physical redemption means investors can exchange ETF shares for corresponding underlying assets (such as SOL), rather than cash. During S-1 file review, the SEC will focus on examining how issuers describe physical redemption execution, asset value calculation, and whether partial or full asset cash redemption is supported.
The staking mechanism is another market focus. Staking is a native asset appreciation method for PoS public chains like Solana, capable of generating on-chain returns for holders. Staking Rewards data shows that as of June 11, Solana's staking rate was 65.44%, with a staking yield of 7.56%, more than double Ethereum's (3.13%).
Since Grayscale first submitted the Solana spot ETF 19b-4 file in 2024 and was formally accepted by the SEC in February this year, the Solana ETF has entered a substantive regulatory process. Although the SEC announced a delay in approving some Solana ETFs in late May, this S-1 document revision instruction releases an important signal that regulators are no longer rejecting the Solana ETF's feasibility.
Currently, Fidelity, Franklin Templeton, VanEck, Bitwise, Canary Capital, 21Shares, and Grayscale have all submitted Solana spot ETF applications.
Influenced by this news, CoinGecko data shows Solana ecosystem tokens experiencing a widespread rally, with SOL price briefly reaching a new monthly high.
May Land as Early as July, with Approval Probability up to 90%
After Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs successfully landed, market focus is quickly shifting to potential next-round crypto spot ETF targets.
According to Blockworks, citing informed sources, based on the latest ETF application file update rhythm, the Solana spot ETF is expected to be approved within the next 3 to 5 weeks, potentially as early as July.
Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart predicted in his latest forecast that related products might be approved this year, possibly as early as July.
Solana is considered to have met key pre-approval prerequisites. James Seyffart added that Solana and XRP ETF applications already have derivative ETFs approved, paving the way for spot ETF approval.
In fact, in March this year, Volatility Shares launched two Solana futures ETFs, the first L1 public chain project to receive US futures ETF permission after Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Outside the US, the Toronto Stock Exchange launched four Solana spot ETFs supporting staking functionality in April, showing attractiveness to institutional investors and indirectly pressuring the SEC.
In James Seyffart's latest prediction of crypto spot ETF approval probabilities, Solana and Litecoin are in the first echelon, with approval probabilities of 90%; XRP at 85%; Dogecoin and HBAR at 80%; Cardano, Polkadot, and Avalanche at 75%; and SUI at 60%.
Although Solana has most key conditions for US spot ETF approval, the SEC previously listed SOL as an "unregistered security" in lawsuits against Coinbase and Binance, which still constitutes a potential obstacle.
