On June 9, QCP Capital stated in its official channel that "as summer approaches, BTC is trading within a narrow range, with implied volatility continuing to be under pressure. Although the current implied volatility is at a one-year low and appears 'cheap' on the surface, the actual volatility is even lower. Historical data from the past two years shows that short-term option volatility tends to further decline before July each year. A similar trend was observed during the same period last year.
If BTC's price clearly breaks through below $100,000 or above $110,000, it could reignite broad market interest. However, currently, there are no obvious short-term catalysts that could drive such a movement. Although recent macro news has caused brief fluctuations, most are viewed as 'noise' by the market and quickly fade without triggering a directional breakthrough.
Even after the better-than-expected US employment data last Friday, which drove US stocks up and gold down, BTC remained unperturbed, caught in the intersection of multiple macro factors, lacking a clear directional anchor. Without a compelling narrative driving a new round of price increases, the market is showing signs of fatigue. Perpetual contract open interest is decreasing, and capital inflows into spot BTC ETFs have begun to slow down.
Options trading over the past week also reflects this wait-and-see market state. We have seen a large number of upside call options expiring in July being rolled over to September, with significant trading volumes, indicating that investors are pushing their bullish expectations to a more distant point in time."
