- Technical Contradictory Signals: Price below moving average but MACD shows momentum shift
- Market Supply Dynamics: Exchange reserves drop to three-year low, forming support
- Liquidity Pressure: Liquidation wave may accelerate short-term volatility
ETH Price Prediction
ETH Technical Analysis: Short-term Pressure but Rebound Momentum Accumulating
According to BTCC financial analyst Michael's technical analysis, ETH's current price of 2498.09 USDT is below the 20-day moving average (2560.2755), indicating short-term weakness. However, the MACD indicator (28.9827) has crossed above the signal line (-19.3871), with the histogram expanding to 48.3699, suggesting weakening downward momentum. The Bollinger Bands show the price is near the lower band (2429.2578), typically indicating an oversold state.
"Although ETH faces a critical support test, technical indicators show reversal signals are forming," Michael noted, "If it holds the 2429 support level, a short-term rebound testing the 2691 upper resistance is possible."
Market Sentiment: Liquidation Wave Intensifies ETH Volatility
btcc analyst Michael interprets the latest market data: "A $14 million crypto market liquidation is primarily concentrated in ETH positions, with exchange reserves dropping to the lowest since mid-2022, indicating holders prefer hoarding over selling."
He added: "This 'supply contraction' phenomenon resonates with the technical oversold signals. Although short-term prices are under pressure, a stronger rebound momentum may be brewing in the medium term."
Key Factors Affecting ETH Price
Crypto Market Experiences $14 Million Liquidation, Ethereum Hardest Hit
In the past hour, crypto positions across major exchanges were liquidated for nearly $14 million, with long traders bearing most of the losses. Ethereum accounted for $5.5 million—again highlighting the asset's volatility during market downturns.
Coinglass data shows a severe liquidation imbalance: $13.4 million from long positions, with only $0.4453 million from short positions. These figures underscore the risks of leveraged trading during price volatility.
Ethereum Faces Critical Support Test, Exchange Reserves Drop to Lowest Since Mid-2022
Ethereum currently hovers above the critical support level of $2,392—the average cost basis for Binance depositors—with exchange reserves dropping to the lowest since mid-2022. Holding this level may alleviate selling pressure, but a break could trigger cascading liquidations.
Binance's dominance in exchange reserves makes its realized price a crucial psychological support. Although ETH has repeatedly rebounded at this level, weakening momentum and macro uncertainties threaten its stability. OKX's higher realized price ($2,706) has less influence due to Binance's market share.
Exchange supply has dropped to 18.7 million ETH, indicating tightening liquidity. Maintaining the price above $2,500 keeps most CEX interaction groups profitable, but persistent weakness could shake market confidence.
Can ETH Break Through $3,000?
Based on current data, ETH needs to break through multiple technical resistances to reach $3,000:
| Key Level | Value (USDT) | Significance |
|---|---|---|
| 20-day Moving Average | 2560.28 | Short-term Trend Watershed |
| Bollinger Band Upper Band | 2691.29 | First Strong Resistance |
| Psychological Threshold | 3000.00 | Requires Incremental Funds |
Michael believes: "To achieve the target before the end of June, two conditions must be met: 1) Close above the 2691 upper band daily; 2) Overall market risk appetite improves. Current probability is around 35%, which can be raised to 50% if it breaks through 2560."
