Author: glassnode
Compiled by: Felix, PANews
As long-term holders begin to take profits, Bitcoin started to pull back after reaching a new high of $118,000. Key support levels are at $103,700 and $95,600, with signs indicating long-term investors are selling, presenting a serious challenge for bulls.
Key Points:
- Bitcoin reached a historical high of $118,000 but quickly fell back to $103,200. The initial rise seemed to be driven by the spot market, with major accumulation zones at $81,000-$85,000, $93,000-$96,000, and $102,000-$104,000, which have now become potential support levels.
- From a macro perspective, through the CBD heatmap, many historical accumulation zones have transformed into selling zones. Sellers from the ranges of $25,000-$31,000, $38,000-$44,000, and $60,000-$73,000 are putting pressure on price movement.
- Cost basis percentiles and short-term holder intervals indicate near-term support at $103,700 and $95,600, with resistance at $114,800. These levels are important statistical indicators of broader market sentiment shifts.
- Realized profits have surged to $1.47 billion per day, marking the fifth major profit-taking in this cycle. Selling is primarily led by long-term holders, not short-term traders.
- The group holding for over a year dominates recent selling, reflecting mature capital rotation. This is consistent with previous CBD heatmap observations, confirming experienced investors are shaping the current top formation phase.
Price Momentum Ladder
Over the past two weeks, Bitcoin continued its upward trend, reaching a new high of $118,000 and briefly surpassing the January 2025 high. However, it then pulled back to $103,200, suggesting a potential pause in bullish momentum.
To understand the internal structure of this rally, one can use the CBD heatmap (PANews note: CBD heatmap visually displays Cumulative Volume Delta data), which tracks the net difference between aggressive buying and selling at different price levels. Visually, it reveals concentrated accumulation or selling areas driven by spot markets, helping identify the most robust demand intervals.
The heatmap shows this rally was primarily spot-driven, with a step-like ascent, with clear accumulation zones at $81,000-$85,000, $93,000-$96,000, and $102,000-$104,000. These areas may now serve as supply-dense zones and potentially provide short-term support under overall market sentiment.
Notably, top buyers from the first quarter of this year, who held after the price dropped below $80,000, are now facing another test as the price hovers around $110,000. This article will explore the gradually weakening momentum behind recent demand, factors diminishing market strength, and potential support levels if market weakness persists.
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Source: Glassnode
Profit Realization
As BTC retreats from the recent high of $118,000, most selling pressure seems to come from seasoned holders within the cycle, those who accumulated BTC early in the trend and are now realizing substantial gains. At this stage, the profit realization mechanism is a key factor in assessing demand exhaustion risk.
By calculating the 7-day simple moving average of daily realized profits (adjusted to exclude internal entity flows), the daily realized profits peaked at $1.47 billion last week. This is a significant level, highlighting the intensity of recent capital rotation.
More importantly, this marks the fifth time in this cycle that daily profit-taking exceeded $1 billion. Such events often coincide with local market tops or slowdowns, especially when new demand cannot absorb such a scale of realized profits. This underscores the market's resilience when facing massive selling pressure.
Source: Glassnode
Dynamic Shift
To better understand the significance of the current profit-taking wave, it's necessary to examine it from a cyclical perspective. Not all profit-taking events are the same, and the dynamic nature of these mechanisms can reveal how market maturity and volatility shape investor behavior over time.
One effective method is to examine the 90-day simple moving average (SMA) of market cap-adjusted realized net profits. This adjustment allows for comparison across different cycles. A clear trend is that profit-taking enthusiasm has weakened over time, reflecting the general degradation of cyclical upward performance and reduced volatility as the market matures.
- From November 2015 to April 2018, the net profit-taking phase lasted about 25 months, with peaks exceeding 0.4% of market cap.
- In the 2020-2022 cycle, this area lasted about 20 months, with peaks around 0.15%.
- In the current cycle, starting from November 2023, the net profit-taking phase has lasted 18 months, forming two peaks close to 0.1%.
This trend suggests that while profit-taking still exerts significant pressure, it has moderated, possibly indicating a shift from boom-and-bust fervor to structural capital rotation in a more mature asset class.
[The translation continues in the same manner for the rest of the text, maintaining the specific translation rules for technical terms and proper nouns.]The profit realization mechanism is showing an increasingly intense trend, with daily profit peaks reaching $1.47 billion, primarily driven by long-term holders. This trend, coupled with the increasing profit-taking ratio of those holding for over a year, suggests that we may be witnessing a distribution phase rather than a new breakthrough.
Overall, the market seems to be at a crossroads, influenced by multiple factors such as increasing selling pressure, gradually diminishing bullish momentum, and the need to prove its resilience. The next few weeks will be crucial in determining whether this is a medium-term consolidation or the beginning of a broader top formation.
Related reading: On-chain Data Weekly Review: Bitcoin Reaches Third New High in This Cycle, May Still Have Room for Growth
