I have never seen such a fragmented crypto market!
When I woke up this morning, I saw BTC drop to 101,000, and initially thought something big had happened, but didn't think much of it.
Later, after browsing X, I understood the situation—the "black swan" truly arrived: the world's richest and most powerful people publicly clashed on X, directly triggering market sentiment, with crypto and tech stocks collapsing across the board.
Looking further, Wall Street giant BlackRock continuously added positions from 70,000 to the peak, and is now starting to take profits at high levels; on the other side, BTC reserves on exchanges continue to hit new lows, indicating a large amount of Bitcoin is being transferred out and hoarded. Who is lying?
Even more bizarre is that ETF funds suddenly shifted from net inflow to net outflow, with retail investors cutting losses at low points and chasing highs above 100,000, becoming classic "buy high, sell low" bagholders. This is why institutions keep earning more while retail investors are repeatedly harvested. However, on-chain data doesn't align with the short sentiment. Bitcoin continues to flow out of exchanges, suggesting someone is quietly accumulating. This is likely MicroStrategy's strategy—holding 580,000 BTC, always buying and never selling, maintaining market confidence through support. Compared to short-term arbitrage hedge funds, MicroStrategy seems more like a Bitcoin consensus maintainer.
Ethereum also confirms this point: Price doubled, but exchange outflows are not significant. This suggests ETH is more likely being distributed by market makers rather than accumulating. In summary, the current trend looks more like a top distribution phase. Once distribution is complete, market makers will likely turn to short and smash the market, then re-accumulate. Operations like Spoofy are no longer a secret in the crypto market.
After discussing the overall market, let's look at opportunities for smaller coins.
Two coins are about to face massive unlocks:
- ZK: 768 million tokens will be unlocked on June 17th, representing 21% of current circulating supply. Such selling pressure is significant. We shorted at the high point yesterday, it has already dropped 10%, but the trend isn't over. Future rebounds remain good short opportunities, with the target being a continuous short until the unlock date.
- ZRO: On June 20th, tokens worth approximately $60 million will be unlocked, representing 23% of circulating supply. Downward pressure is similarly substantial, making it a quality short target.
In a market experiencing oscillation or pullback, such unlocked coins often drop more severely; even if the overall market rises, their gains will be limited by negative factors. Many retail investors are unaware of this information, which creates an information advantage for us.
Additionally, US stocks have shown notable changes. NASDAQ and S&P both broke through previous highs early this morning, surging. However, they are not far from historical peaks, creating significant technical pullback pressure.
Continuing, the current market is not without positive factors.
For instance, GDP growth forecast was significantly raised from 2.2% to 4.6%, which is a primary driver of NASDAQ's consecutive rises. However, such positives are short-term; long-term, economic overheating might delay the Fed's rate cut schedule, maintaining high interest rates to address upcoming tariff-driven inflation. The side effects of tariffs might soon become apparent—this Friday's non-farm employment data is expected to drop significantly, and the market needs high vigilance. Next week's CPI data might also unexpectedly rise. If these negative factors materialize, market sentiment could reverse, with neither US stocks nor the crypto market likely to remain unaffected.
Meanwhile, public opinion is heating up: Musk rarely lashed out, condemning the latest congressional spending bill for adding $2.5 trillion to the deficit, directly stating this is heading towards bankruptcy.
Considering the current trend, I believe Bitcoin and other risk assets will likely enter a correction period after completing top distribution, with the bottom most probably appearing in July or August.
That's all for this article! If you're feeling lost in the crypto market, consider joining our community to layout and harvest from market makers! You can join the group via WeChat+QQ (Communication+Q: 3806326575 or WeChat: Mixm5688), receive market analysis, coin recommendations, and positive news, plan ahead, and get irregular live market analysis! You can also ask questions in the group and get the best answers!
