On June 3, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell delivered a speech, and while not directly commenting on interest rates, he emphasized that the US dollar policy has changed and may face more intense exchange rate fluctuations in the future, drawing market attention. On the same day, several Fed officials successively hinted that rate cuts are still possible this year, including Chicago Fed President Goolsbee, Governor Waller, and Dallas Fed President Logan, who all stated that rate cuts before the end of the year would be reasonable if inflation eases and the labor market remains stable.
Waller further pointed out that rate cuts would be supported if long-term expectations remain stable and core inflation declines. The market expects interest rates to remain unchanged in June-July, but the possibility of rate cuts in the second half of the year has increased, leading to recent US dollar weakness and higher asset price volatility risks.
Bitunix analyst suggests:
The Fed's dovish remarks have temporarily boosted market risk appetite, but US dollar volatility may disrupt fund allocation. Bitcoin's short-term key level is at $105,000, and if it can stabilize at this price, it may continue to rise. Investors are advised to closely observe changes in the US dollar index and interest rate expectations.
If the US dollar continues to weaken, BTC has the opportunity to test the pressure zone above $110K; conversely, if the market returns to risk aversion, the $102.7K key support level needs to be defended. Operationally, it is recommended to maintain a range-bound oscillation strategy and observe market sentiment changes before the FOMC meeting in mid-June.
