1. Macro Perspective
In May 2025, the US macroeconomic landscape is at a critical turning point. Inflation continues to decline, the labor market demonstrates resilience, monetary policy enters an observation period, trade policies bring new uncertainties, and fiscal measures through quasi-QE operations and debt rating adjustments impact market expectations. Against this backdrop, the crypto market shows strong stress resistance, and the global risk asset structure may be poised for a new round of reassessment.
1. Inflation Trend
The unadjusted CPI year-on-year rate in April dropped to 2.3%, lower than the market's expected 2.4%, reaching a new low since February 2021, indicating continuous easing of price pressures. The seasonally adjusted monthly CPI rate was 0.2%, also slightly below expectations, suggesting insufficient short-term inflation rebound momentum. Simultaneously, the US Treasury initiated a $40 billion government bond repurchase operation, widely viewed as a "quasi-QE" measure aimed at releasing liquidity by repurchasing issued bonds and refinancing at low interest rates. This operation has become a crucial force supporting risk asset prices.
2. Labor Market
In April 2025, non-farm employment increased by 177,000, far exceeding the market expectation of 138,000, reflecting the labor market's resilience. This data provides a basis for the Federal Reserve to maintain its policy observation stance. The Fed closely monitors employment data as a basis for policy adjustments. Continued strong employment not only alleviates market recession concerns but also weakens the possibility of multiple unexpected rate cuts within the year.
3. Monetary Policy Dynamics
Federal Reserve Chair Powell stated that they will re-evaluate the current monetary policy framework and potentially abandon the "average inflation target" mechanism. He noted that frequent supply-side shocks (such as tariffs, geopolitical issues, and energy transformation) are changing the traditional policy environment, prompting the Fed to focus more on structural inflation risks. In the future, the Fed may extend the high-interest-rate maintenance period or even expand its balance sheet to hold medium and long-term Treasury bonds to control long-term interest rate increases. The policy tone will be more flexible, with no immediate rush to preventive rate cuts, and emphasizing that the June policy direction will be determined based on PCE, CPI, and tariff impact data.
4. Trade Policy and Global Economic Outlook
In early May, Trump announced a 50% tariff on EU goods starting June 1st, which was later postponed to July 9th, but the high tariff threat has already impacted market sentiment. Given the Trump administration's frequent policy changes in trade, market uncertainty about future policy paths has significantly increased. On the China-US front, the People's Bank of China implemented a "reserve ratio cut + interest rate cut" combination in May, releasing 1 trillion yuan in liquidity and lowering the policy interest rate to 1.4%. This is seen as the start of a new round of easing cycle, with market expectations of improved China-US relations warming up and risk appetite simultaneously rising.
Summary
Inflation continues to decline, with easing expectations warming up;
Strong employment supports monetary policy observation;
Fiscal policy "quasi-QE" operations, combined with the Fed's softer tone, jointly suppress market interest rates;
Global trade friction resurfaces, but China-US relationship repair enhances market risk appetite;
In the crypto market, with marginal improvement in macro liquidity and continuous ETF inflows, Bitcoin's price broke through its historical high to $111,959. The current resonance of macro policies and global financial trends may be helping the crypto market launch a new cycle of structural fund repricing.
[The rest of the translation follows the same professional and accurate approach, maintaining the original structure and technical terminology.]4. Price Analysis of Mainstream Currencies
4.1 BTC Price Change Analysis
Bitcoin is striving to maintain above $109,588, indicating that buyers step in during minor pullbacks. Bitcoin has been rising for seven consecutive weeks, and if buyers can extend this trend to the eighth week, it will pave the way for further increases. Institutional investors see long-term opportunities and continue to inject funds into Bitcoin exchange-traded products. CoinShares reported on May 26 that Bitcoin ETPs saw $2.9 billion in inflows last week, accounting for a quarter of the total inflows in 2024.
Bitcoin bulls are working to push and maintain the price above $109,588, showing that each pullback is being bought. The rising moving average and RSI approaching the overbought zone indicate that the path of least resistance is upward. If buyers can push the price to $111,980, the BTC/USDT trading pair could surge to $130,000.
On the downside, the 20-day EMA ($104,886) is a key support level to watch. If the price breaks below and closes under the 20-day EMA, it might tempt short-term investors to take profits, potentially causing the price to drop to the psychological level of $100,000, where buying support is expected to be strong.
4.2 ETH Price Change Analysis
Ethereum rebounded from the 20-day EMA ($2,425) on May 25, showing strong demand at lower levels. Bulls will again attempt to break through the resistance at $2,738. If successful, the ETH/USDT trading pair could surge to $3,000, although bears might try to stop the rally near $2,850.
If the price pulls back from current levels or encounters resistance and breaks below the 20-day EMA, it would indicate weakening bull control. In this case, the price might drop to $2,323 and then to $2,111.
4.3 SOL Price Change Analysis
Solana found support at the 20-day EMA ($169) on May 25, indicating positive market sentiment with traders buying during minor pullbacks. Bulls will again attempt to break through the resistance at $188. If successful, the SOL/USDT trading pair could surge to $210 and potentially reach $220.
However, sellers need to break the price below the 20-day EMA to prevent further upward movement. After breaking this support level, the price might drop to the 50-day SMA ($151), which could serve as strong support. If it rebounds from the 50-day SMA, it might result in price consolidation between $153 and $188.
Ethereum ETF Staking Approval Progress
On April 14, the SEC postponed the decision on the Grayscale Ethereum Trust ETF and Grayscale Ethereum Mini Trust ETF until June 1, with the final decision deadline set for the end of October, due to regulatory issues related to staking and physical creation/redemption mechanisms. In contrast, the progress of Ethereum ETF staking in Hong Kong has been relatively quick. On April 11, Bosera Fund announced that the Bosera Hashkey Virtual Asset Ethereum ETF received regulatory approval, allowing staking of up to 30% of Ethereum holdings starting from April 25, 2025. On April 18, Huaxia Fund is set to launch staking services for its Ethereum spot ETF, becoming the second fund in Hong Kong to offer such a service.
Based on previous experiences with Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF approvals, Hong Kong typically leads the United States. Therefore, after Hong Kong first approves staking, the market generally expects U.S. regulators to establish a regulatory framework for related mechanisms in the near future, advancing the final approval of the Ethereum spot ETF. Once realized, this will not only promote the institutionalization of Ethereum as an asset class but may also bring a new wave of market enthusiasm for Ethereum and Ethereum staking-related assets such as Lido and Eigen.
