Arthur Hayes, founder of BitMEX, said at the Bitcoin 2025 conference on May 28 that in order to solve the huge debt problem, the US government will start printing a large amount of money from now to 2028. It is expected that up to 9 trillion US dollars will flow into the market, which is far more than the scale during the COVID epidemic. He said that Bitcoin is definitely the "biggest winner" in this wave of inflation, and the price of the currency reaching one million US dollars is just a coincidence.
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ToggleKey Summary
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent was described by Hayes as a "used car business" whose mission was to sell Treasury bonds
Hayes said that buying bonds is not as good as buying stocks, gold and BTC
The US fiscal deficit and spending in 2025 may reach new highs
If spending cannot be cut, the only option is to "issue more government bonds" to stimulate economic growth
The U.S. Congress will launch three liquidity solutions: unlimited leverage for banks to buy bonds, heavy taxes to drive out foreign capital, and restart Freddie Mac and Fannie Mac.
Assuming the three major plans are implemented, it is estimated that the market will usher in a capital tide of US$9 trillion by 2028.
Compared with the Bitcoin market driven by COVID in 2020, the price of the currency just hit one million.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent becomes salesman as U.S. debt becomes hard to sell
Hayes was the first to say that U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is simply in a "sales business" whose job is to sell U.S. Treasury bonds that no one wants to buy because his boss, the U.S. government, needs funds to operate.
He pointed out that it is often said that Bessant is a very successful hedge fund manager who once worked under George Soros and participated in many currency wars. But his current role is to be a salesman, selling US debt with all his might.
US debt is like shit, it’s better to buy stocks, gold and BTC
Hayes stated that U.S. Treasuries are shit, and then cited data showing that the supply of U.S. Treasuries has increased by 80% since 2017. If we compare the US Long-Term Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) with the NASDAQ, gold, and Bitcoin (BTC), the results are:
- Gold and NASDAQ: The return rate is nearly 80% higher than TLT
Bitcoin: The return rate is much higher than TLT, nearly 99%
Trump administration will continue to expand fiscal deficit and has no intention of cutting spending
Hayes pointed out that although the Trump administration has been talking about controlling spending, in fact, the US government spending and fiscal deficit in 2025 are expected to be higher than in 2024.
Elon Musk originally led the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) to drastically cut spending, but is now fading from the task under political pressure because cutting the budget will block people's financial path, and the hard-nosed approach will not be easy to follow.
The US government is unable to cut costs, and relies on printing money and creating inflation as a solution
Hayes joked that U.S. Treasury Secretary Benson has been emphasizing the need to strive for economic growth on TV shows recently, but in reality the government is unable to cut costs and can only increase the supply of national debt and print money to boost the economy. He also cited China as an example, saying:
"China's economic figures are all based on credit, and it seems that the United States has no choice but to go down this path."
Hayes pointed out that in such an environment, the asset most likely to benefit again is Bitcoin (BTC).
The United States is preparing to launch three major funding policies, with total liquidity reaching US$9 trillion by 2028
Hayes pointed out that the next three major funding policies of the US government will drive Bitcoin (BTC) into a new bull market:
He estimates that by 2028, there will be about $3 trillion in bank lending to the real economy, which is quantitative easing (QE) for the poor.
The $900 billion of foreign capital withdrawing from U.S. debt will be made up by U.S. commercial banks buying bonds through "unlimited leverage"
If Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were to return to the market, an estimated $5 trillion in mortgage funding would be released.
These three items combined bring the total liquidity in the United States to nearly $9 trillion by 2028. He said:
“During the COVID period, we had about a 10-fold increase in asset prices. If the money printed this time is twice as much as during the COVID period, then it would just be a good time for Bitcoin to reach $1 million.”
Risk Warning
Cryptocurrency investments carry a high degree of risk, their prices may fluctuate dramatically, and you may lose all your investment. Please assess the risks carefully.
After hitting an all-time high of $112,000, the price of Bitcoin has recently been in a consolidation phase, with mixed market sentiment. On-chain analyst Murphy pointed out that Bitcoin seems to be entering a stage of declining momentum and may still have room for rebound in the future, but we must also be wary of the risk of a deep pullback.
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ToggleAnalysts: Market momentum is starting to weaken
Since Bitcoin hit a high of $112,000 last week, it has recently seen a price pullback and multiple profit taking events, indicating that the market's bullish momentum may be waning.
Analyst Murphy pointed out in a post this morning that the second wave of profit-taking (Realized Profit) on May 29 was slightly lower than the first wave on May 23 (US$2.1 billion), but it brought about a significant downward pressure on prices, indicating that the market's carrying capacity, that is, the demand side, was slightly weak.
On-chain data shows that the supply of short-term holders (STH, red line) has also continued to decline. Compared with the divergence from RP at the end of November last year, it reflects the current weakening of investor confidence:
This highlights that the May rally was mainly driven by low liquidity and reluctance to sell, rather than strong demand, limiting the upward potential for prices.
Even if the market is under short-term pressure, Murphy still believes that Bitcoin may rebound and even challenge its historical highs:
Based on past experience, the market may still reach new highs after the first momentum decays. If this rally occurs and is accompanied by larger profit taking, the price could potentially break through $110,000.
Where is the callback warning line? Three major support areas exposed
As momentum declines, Bitcoin's support level has also become the focus of market attention. According to Murphy's observation of the on-chain chip structure (URPD, UTXO Realized Price Distribution ), the following three areas may become key callback supports:
$100,000 to $105,000: There is an obvious accumulation of chips in this range, reflecting the market's high recognition of this price; and $100,000 is not only a technical support, but also a psychological level representing an important integer.
$93,000 to $98,000: Most of the chips in this range are held by " new buyers ". Their motivation for entry is relatively long-term, not short-term speculation, and is expected to form strong support.
$81,000 to $87,000: The most extreme potential support area, but the chip structure is not as solid as areas B and D.
He emphasized that $96,000 , which is the RPC (average cost of short-term holders) of STH, can be regarded as the " bull-bear dividing line " of the short-term and medium-term trends. Once it falls below, it may mean that the previous wave of gains has ended:
The focus of future observation should be on whether sufficient profits are realized when prices reach new highs. If the trend diverges and profit realization decreases, it may be a warning sign that the price has peaked.
PlanB: The bull market continues, but the momentum may weaken?
PlanB, a Bitcoin analyst and creator of the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, also published a post visualizing the Bitcoin market cycle from 2010 to 2025 through a Bitcoin Market Cycles logarithmic chart, suggesting that Bitcoin is still in a bull market phase.
However, the continuous red dots in the chart and the flattening slope have also made the community worry about whether the upward momentum is weakening, asking "When will the yellow dots (chip distribution) appear?" He replied: "There is no distribution signal in the on-chain transaction data yet." This also indicates that the bull market may continue for some time.
When the direction of potential decline is unclear, investors need to adopt response strategies based on their own positioning to avoid being driven out of the turbulent market.
Risk Warning
Cryptocurrency investments carry a high degree of risk, their prices may fluctuate dramatically, and you may lose all your investment. Please assess the risks carefully.
As the U.S. debt ceiling deadline approaches, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon warned that the U.S. bond market could be "about to collapse," but Treasury Secretary Jeff Bessant insisted that the United States "will never default."
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ToggleBessant: US 'will never default'
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent spoke to CBS's "Face the Nation" over the weekend about the U.S. debt ceiling and said firmly:
"We are on the line, but we are not hitting a wall."
Republican congressional leaders have attached a debt-ceiling increase to President Trump's tax and spending bill, potentially subjecting the issue of a default to complex negotiations over the legislation when the U.S. Senate returns this week to take it up.
Bessent declined to give a deadline in an interview, but he said last month that the United States would likely exhaust its borrowing authority if the debt ceiling was not raised or suspended by August.
According to Bloomberg , most Wall Street analysts and private forecasters believe the deadline will be between late August and mid-October.
Refuting JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, the U.S. bond market is fine
Bessant also pushed back against a warning from JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Jamie Dimon that the bond market is "about to collapse." Dimon said at the Reagan National Economic Forum last Friday that the bond market will collapse after the U.S. government and the Federal Reserve's "excessive" spending and quantitative easing policies.
Bessant said:
“I’ve known Jamie for a long time, and he’s made predictions like this throughout his career. Fortunately, none of them have come true. That’s what makes him a great banker. He always tries to look to the future.”
Bessant also promised:
“We’re going to slowly reduce the deficit. It’s a long process, so our goal is to get it down over the next four years.”
Risk Warning
Cryptocurrency investments carry a high degree of risk, their prices may fluctuate dramatically, and you may lose all your investment. Please assess the risks carefully.
Well-known Gold investment expert Peter Schiff actually went to Bitcoin Conference 2025 to challenge Trace Mayer , who defends Bitcoin and monetary sovereignty. The two engaged in a heated debate on the value of Bitcoin.
In this fascinating conversation, the two reviewed the history and philosophy of currency and the place of Bitcoin in the market order. Trace Mayer believes that fiat currency is dead, while Peter Schiff insists that Bitcoin is a speculative Ponzi scheme and a tulip bubble. Trace Mayer is an early investor in Bitcoin Magazine, Bitpay, and Kraken. He is also a writer and promoter of Bitcoin education. He advocates using Bitcoin to achieve human economic freedom (not financial freedom). The following is a summary of the key points of the conversation.
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ToggleGold faction challenges! Peter Schiff vs. Trace Mayer: The ideological duel between Bitcoin and the free economy
At the Bitcoin Conference 2025, an unexpected scene occurred. The well-known Gold investment expert Peter Schiff appeared at the venue to confront Bitcoin old OG and Bitcoin Magazine investor Trace Mayer. The two faced off head-on and launched a heated debate on the value of Bitcoin and the free economy of currency. This war of words started from the historical roots of currency and went all the way to the philosophical essence of human economic markets. The two people's positions were diametrically opposed, but they created extremely wonderful sparks.
Free money vs. traditional store of value
Trace Mayer is an early promoter of Bitcoin. Since the financial tsunami in 2008, he has been committed to Bitcoin education. He advocates the use of Bitcoin to achieve a decentralized free economy. During the conversation, he bluntly pointed out that fiat currency is dead, the central bank is expanding the money supply without limit, and Bitcoin is the choice to fight against this institutional robbing the poor to help the rich.
Mayer emphasized that Bitcoin’s scarce supply (21 million coins), verifiability, decentralization, and censorship resistance are the basis for achieving personal sovereignty and economic freedom in modern society. He believes that Bitcoin is digital gold and a technological revolution that responds to the needs of the times.
Peter Schiff's criticism: Bitcoin is a tulip bubble and does not have the function of currency
Peter Schiff did not buy into Trace Mayer's argument, emphasizing that Bitcoin does not have the three major functions of currency: reserve value, convertibility between silver and currency, and unit of account. Peter Schiff believes that Bitcoin is virtual, cannot produce anything, has no practical use, and its value comes entirely from market hype. This is the tulip bubble and Ponzi scheme. Only those who enter the market early make money, while those who enter the market late are harvested. Bitcoin is too volatile, has no safe-haven properties, and has no intrinsic value. In contrast, gold has been accepted by human civilization for thousands of years and has irreplaceable physical value and a foundation of trust.
Could Bitcoin Become the Modern Gold Standard?
Trace Mayer disagrees with Peter Schiff's criticism. He countered that although gold has physical value, in today's highly digitized world, gold is difficult to carry and verify, easily censored and inflexible; Bitcoin, on the other hand, can be transferred instantly around the world, is completely transparent and does not require a third party, making it a currency technology that better meets modern needs. Bitcoin can be held and transferred without going through a bank or government. This is a revolution in the value of human trust. Humans can trust mathematics without the approval of the central bank.
Peter Schiff hits back: Hype, not innovation
Peter Schiff said Bitcoin is a game driven by market sentiment and leverage. He pointed out that Bitcoin has failed to play a safe-haven role every time there is a global market crisis, but has instead fluctuated in sync with risky assets, which shows that it does not have the attributes that a mature currency should have. This digital asset fluctuates violently and is not suitable as any long-term value storage tool. Investors are only willing to hold it because they think they can sell it to others at a high price.
Final conclusion of the debate: It’s not just about money, it’s about the freedom of choice
Trace Mayer concluded by saying that Bitcoin is an experiment against the old financial system. He believes that Bitcoin's open source spirit, global consensus mechanism and ability to resist censorship will write a new chapter in human monetary history. This is not just about money, it is about sovereignty and freedom; humans are using code to create a new inviolable economic system.
Opposing ideas stimulate market awakening
This conversation between Peter Schiff and Trace Mayer at the Bitcoin Annual Conference was not only a clash of values, but also a reminder that Bitcoin is not just an investment target, but a deep philosophical reflection on human economic freedom. Regardless of whether one chooses to stand on the side of tradition or innovation, it is undeniable that Bitcoin has revolutionized the history of human currency and has become a symbol of disruptive innovation in the global financial system. What is interesting is that the person who invented Bitcoin, "Satoshi Nakamoto", is still hiding behind the scenes. Is Bitcoin a manifestation of utopia or just the ultimate experiment at the end of the century? Nobody knows.
Risk Warning
Cryptocurrency investments carry a high degree of risk, their prices may fluctuate dramatically, and you may lose all your investment. Please assess the risks carefully.
