Original | Odaily (@OdailyChina）
Author | Golem (@web3_golem）
Compliant stablecoin giant Circle may become the first beneficiary after the US stablecoin bill "GENIUS Act" is passed.
On May 27, Circle disclosed the latest progress of its NYSE IPO application, planning to issue 24 million Class A shares, with 9.6 million shares issued by the company and 14.4 million shares from existing shareholders, with an expected price range of $24 to $26 per share. Circle could raise nearly $250 million, while shareholders selling shares could potentially receive nearly $375 million.
Circle's disclosed target valuation is $6.71 billion, higher than the previous estimated range of $4-5 billion. Although Circle's IPO progress remains smooth, the final result is not yet certain, and Circle will continue to face inquiries from the US SEC in the next 3-5 months. Meanwhile, mainstream US capital markets are increasing their acceptance of crypto, but with companies on the verge of delisting "piggybacking on crypto" to boost stock prices, the US mainstream capital market urgently needs more truly high-quality "crypto stocks"...
7-Year IPO Journey
Looking back, Circle's path to listing is like a grand cultivation novel, with the protagonist enduring 7 years of hardship before finally ascending.
IPO Idea Emerges, Encountering a Bear Market Waterloo
The idea of Circle's IPO first emerged in 2018 when Circle launched USDC and acquired the crypto exchange Poloniex. That year, Circle received $110 million in funding from institutions like Bitmain, IDG Capital, and Breyer Capital, with a valuation reaching $3 billion.
However, the crypto market suddenly turned bearish in 2019, catching everyone off guard. Circle's valuation plummeted 75% to $750 million, and it was forced to sell Poloniex to Justin Sun. In this critical moment, Circle's IPO plan naturally fell through.
SPAC Merger Attempt Struck Down by Regulation
By 2021, after two years of compliance exploration and business development, USDC had become the second most influential stablecoin after USDT. Circle's IPO plan successfully resurfaced. On July 8, 2021, Circle announced its listing through SPAC Concord Acquisition Corp, with the code "CRCL" and a valuation of $4.5 billion. Although the crypto market was recovering, regulatory hostility towards crypto remained, and Circle sought to bypass traditional IPO and strict regulatory scrutiny.
However, Circle's IPO plan failed again. In July 2021, Circle announced receiving a subpoena from the US SEC enforcement department, demanding proof that USDC was not a security. After a series of prolonged regulatory disputes and delayed transactions, Circle announced the termination of its SPAC merger plan in December 2022.
Despite this failure and the SEC's continued "regulatory iron fist", Circle did not give up. CEO Jeremy Allaire stated after the plan's failure, "Circle remains committed to becoming a public company in the long term." In June 2023, Circle again recruited legal advisors to "assist with potential listing processes".
Consecutive IPO Applications, Persisting for Years to See Dawn
At the beginning of 2024, perhaps learning from the second failure, Circle chose a more traditional path, secretly submitting an IPO application in January without revealing the number of shares to be sold or the proposed price range. This time, Circle's listing application was extremely low-key, and the company refused to comment on any interactions with the SEC or other regulators, instead focusing on strengthening personnel and stabilizing financial conditions to improve IPO approval chances.
After a long wait, on April 2, 2025, Circle again submitted an S-1 filing to the US SEC, intending to list on the NYSE with the code "CRCL", though the IPO pricing range was not yet announced. According to subsequent market information, Circle was still delaying the IPO. On May 20, Circle stated it was still advancing the IPO plan, with a target valuation of at least $5 billion, and had rejected acquisition offers from Coinbase and Ripple.
Finally, on May 28, 2025, Circle updated its IPO listing details, planning to issue 24 million Class A shares, with 9.6 million shares issued by the company and 14.4 million shares from existing shareholders, with an expected price range of $24 to $26 per share. According to Reuters, Circle's target valuation is $6.71 billion.
Although this update did not specify the exact IPO listing time, ARK Investment, led by Cathie Wood, has expressed interest in purchasing $150 million worth of Circle shares in the IPO.
Does This Update Mean Circle's Listing is Guaranteed?
Over the years, Circle has made many compliance efforts to complete its listing ambition, such as more transparent audit mechanisms, obtaining the New York BitLicense, issuing the Euro stablecoin EUROC, and meeting MiCA requirements. But is this IPO application now a done deal?
Although Circle has formally submitted its IPO application, several necessary procedures remain before officially trading on the NYSE:
SEC Review and Registration Statement Effectiveness
Submitting an application does not mean it has been approved. Circle's latest Form S-1 indicates that "the offering is subject to market conditions and cannot guarantee when or if it will be completed". Additionally, before listing, the SEC needs to conduct inquiries (Comment Letter) and confirm no major objections before the registration statement becomes "effective". Inquiries typically take 1-2 rounds and require 3-5 months to complete.
Roadshow Pricing and Overallotment Option
After SEC approval, Circle's underwriting team (including JPMorgan, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, etc.) will conduct a short roadshow to collect institutional investor demand and determine the final issue price. Circle has also granted underwriters the option to oversell up to 3.6 million additional shares within 30 days.
Official Trading
Only on the second trading day after pricing (typically one trading day after the pricing date) will CRCL stock begin trading on the NYSE. At this point, Circle's IPO will be truly realized.
In summary, submitting an IPO application is just a "foot in the door". Circle's IPO success is not yet guaranteed. However, given the market and regulatory environment, if the Federal Reserve policy remains stable, regulation continues to be crypto-friendly, and no major market volatility or black swan events occur during the SEC's inquiry in the coming weeks, Circle's listing success probability is over 80%.
Mainstream Capital Markets Urgently Need Genuine "Crypto Stocks"
If Circle successfully lists on the NYSE this time, it will also be a milestone for the entire crypto market, further deepening mainstream asset markets' recognition of the crypto industry.
A successful Circle listing will also encourage other crypto companies to actively apply for IPOs. Several crypto companies have previously hoped to list:
Kraken: Since Coinbase's successful listing in 2021, Kraken has been eager to follow suit but has repeatedly failed. According to Bloomberg, it is actively preparing for an IPO in the first quarter of 2026;
Gemini: The crypto exchange Gemini had hinted at an IPO as early as 2021, with rumors suggesting it had secretly submitted an IPO application and was collaborating with Goldman Sachs and Citigroup, potentially going public as early as 2025;
Bullish: The crypto exchange Bullish intended to go public through a SPAC in 2021, but the plan was ultimately shelved.
BitGo: The US crypto custody company BitGo is also considering an IPO as early as the second half of 2025.
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With the stablecoin bill passed and the Trump group continuing to release positive signals to the crypto market, mainstream US capital markets are also being encouraged to invest in the crypto industry. "US stock markets are willing to pay over $2 for a $1 crypto asset," revealing the growing madness of mainstream capital markets towards the crypto industry. However, it cannot be denied that in the US mainstream capital markets, investors are still limited in the types of crypto assets they can access, and can only invest in stocks related to crypto, such as companies actively building crypto reserves.
However, this also provides an opportunity for junk US stocks on the verge of delisting, buying and holding a small amount of crypto assets to boost stock prices and increase their own valuation (related reading: Bloomberg's Chief Financial Writer: The Underlying Logic of US Listed Companies Frantically Buying Crypto Currencies). But the fundamentals of these companies have not changed, there is only oneStrategy, but this trick will ultimately be seen through by mainstream capital markets, and the true crypto industry may also be hurt.
It is now urgent to bring more truly high-quality "crypto stocks" into the US mainstream capital markets.
