The U.S. Senate and Hong Kong Legislative Council almost simultaneously took key steps towards stablecoin regulation this week: the former overwhelmingly passed a procedural motion for the GENIUS Act, clearing obstacles for the first federal stablecoin law in the United States; the latter passed the Stablecoin Ordinance through its third reading, making Hong Kong the first jurisdiction in the Asia-Pacific region to establish a stablecoin licensing system. The highly coincidental legislative pace between East and West is not just a chance occurrence, but a competition for future financial discourse.
Stablecoin Annual Trading Volume May Exceed 100 Trillion USD in 2030
According to incomplete statistics from OKG Research, the current global stablecoin market value is approaching 250 billion USD, having grown over 22 times in the past 5 years; from the beginning of 2025 to now, on-chain trading volume has exceeded 3.7 trillion USD, with an annual projection close to 10 trillion USD. USD stablecoins represented by USDT and USDC are widely used for trading and remittances in emerging markets, with some regions' scale even surpassing traditional payment systems. Stablecoins have risen from marginal assets to key nodes in global payment networks and sovereign competition, and the almost simultaneous acceleration of legislation in the US and Hong Kong signifies that the global stablecoin market has entered an accelerated compliance period.
Based on this, OKG Research referenced Standard Chartered Bank's previous calculation model and combined current regulatory signal release rhythm and institutional fund attitudes, maintaining the current stablecoin turnover rate, calculated that:
Under an optimistic scenario of gradually unfolding global compliance frameworks and widespread adoption by institutions and individuals, the global stablecoin market supply is expected to reach 3 trillion USD by 2030, with monthly on-chain trading volume reaching 9 trillion USD, and annual total trading volume potentially exceeding 100 trillion USD. This means stablecoins will not only be on par with traditional electronic payment systems but will also occupy a structural foundational position in the global clearing network. In terms of market value, stablecoins will become the "fourth category of basic monetary assets" after government bonds, cash, and bank deposits, becoming an important medium for digital payments and asset circulation.
More notably, under this growth trend, the stablecoin reserve structure will also generate a macroeconomic feedback effect. OKG Research previously reported that the existing stablecoin scale has absorbed about 3% of maturing short-term US Treasury bonds, ranking 19th among overseas US Treasury bond holders.
Considering the GENIUS Act's explicit requirement of 100% high-liquidity USD asset reserves, short-term Treasury bills are viewed as the primary choice (currently over 80% of USDT/USDC reserve assets are related to US Treasury bonds). Estimating at a 50% allocation ratio, a 3 trillion USD market value would correspond to at least 1.5 trillion USD in short-term Treasury bond demand. This scale is close to the current overseas sovereign holdings of China or Japan, and stablecoins are poised to become the US Treasury's "largest hidden creditor".
Comparison of US and Hong Kong Stablecoin Regulatory Frameworks: Consensus Amidst Divergence
Although the United States and Hong Kong differ in legislative paths and some details, they have formed a high degree of consensus on basic principles such as "fiat currency anchoring, full reserves, and licensed issuance".
The GENIUS Act limits "payment-type stablecoins", which are anchored to legal currencies like the US dollar, promise 1:1 redemption, and cannot carry interest income, emphasizing their non-security nature to prevent stablecoins from evolving into financially investable products. Hong Kong, while ensuring 1:1 full anchoring, has not yet restricted interest income and anchoring structures, seeking to open new tracks in the USD-dominated stablecoin market and reserve space for future innovations.
Regarding reserve requirements, both the US and Hong Kong require full anchoring to high-liquidity assets, but the GENIUS Act specifically limits eligible reserve asset types, including T-Bills, cash, and repurchase agreements, and requires monthly audits. Hong Kong also requires audits and segregated custody but has not completely defined reserve asset types.
In institutional architecture, the GENIUS Act adopts a "federal-state" dual-track system, providing three paths for stablecoin issuance: banks or their subsidiaries can apply to issue stablecoins, regulated by US banking regulators like the Federal Reserve and FDIC; non-bank institutions can apply to the OCC for federal licensing or obtain licenses through state regulatory agencies. Hong Kong, on the other hand, issues licenses uniformly through the monetary authority and requires permits for any stablecoin anchored to the Hong Kong dollar or actively serving Hong Kong's public, regardless of the issuer's location.
Regarding offshore issuer management, the GENIUS Act explicitly prohibits unlicensed overseas stablecoins from circulating in the US market, authorizing the Treasury to establish a "non-compliant stablecoin list" and block their circulation through US digital asset service providers. Hong Kong primarily focuses on HKD-anchored stablecoins while maintaining an open approach to non-HKD stablecoins.
Behind these institutional differences lies the different demands of the two regions regarding stablecoins. their The United States focuses on maintaining the dollar's dominant position and serving structural financial financing needs, promoting stablecoins as an extended form of on-chain dollars. In the other hand, Hong Kong aims to attract global Web3 projects while not compromising local financial stability, leaving policy flexibility in many details to create a controlled but open and compatible Asia-Pacific compliant innovation testing ground.
How Will Stablecoin Regulation Impact the Web3 Ecosystem?
The true significance of stablecoin regulation lies in providing a payment and settlement foundation for large-scale Web3 adoption.
In the DeFfieldi, stablelike USDT and USDC are already important important settlement assets for on-chain financial innovation, lack clear legal status and accountability mechanisms, making making it difficult for to directly. frameworks such as the Genius Act bill are,ablebyby compliantregulatory requirements will become of the of "compleFiant", with protocols embedding more KYC, AML, and asset identification modules identification modulesing,entralfinance evolve "itable-network".
In the Web3 payment system, stablecoin regulation will break down between payment scenarios and asset circulation, enabling stablecoins to truly transition from "transaction intermediaries" to "payment channels". OKG Research observed that since Visa announced cumulative stablecoin clearing volume exceeding $225 million, multiple payment technology companies have successively embedded stablecoins into their merchant settlement processes while WebprocessWeb3 walarelets stableoin default payment assets to expand micro-payment scenarios tsuch as deposits, tips, and subscriptions.-chain payments are transforming from "crypto transfer tools" to "enterprise-level financial interfaces", with compliance being a necessary prerequisite.
A deeper change involves restructuring global clearing settlement structures::: stablecoins, by anchoring 1:1 to legal tender, connect local currencies with on-chain assets without relying on bank account systems, enabling "point-to-point" settlements. This means in future cross-border payments, on-chain trade finance, RWA interest distributions, stablecoins might replace traditional banks as fund circulation hubs.
In the past, discussions about Web3 large-scale popularization, overly focused on technical breakthroughs and user experience while neglecting fundamental asset legality. Now, complcompliant stablecoins provide the "final puzzle piece": they are institutionally recognized transaction assets with programmable on-chain circulation capabilities. They are digital representations of dollars and Hong Kong dollars, directly usable in DeFi protocols and Non-Fungible Token transactions.
In other words, stablecoins are not Web3's appendages but one of the driving its mainstream.. With compliant stablecoin support, from RWA asset transactions to on-to-chain wage payments, from cross-border settlements to Web3 payment interfaces, stablecoins will become the "infrastructure assets" promoting large-scale on-chain economic adoption.
