Original Author: Matt Crosby
Compiled and Organized by: BitpushNews
After a period of volatility, Bitcoin has reclaimed the $100,000 mark and set a new all-time high, injecting new confidence into the market. However, with the price increase, a key question arises: Are the most experienced and successful Bitcoin holders - long-term holders - beginning to sell?
This article will analyze how on-chain data reveals the behavior of long-term holders and whether recent profit-taking is cause for concern or simply a healthy part of the Bitcoin market cycle.
Signs of Profit-Taking Emerge
The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) provides instant insight into the network's realized profits. Focusing on recent weeks, we can clearly observe an upward trend in profit realization. The concentration of green bars indicates that a significant number of investors are indeed selling Bitcoin to realize profits, especially after the price rose from the $74,000 - $75,000 range to a new high above $100,000.
Figure 1: Spent Output Profit Ratio Indicates Significant Recent Profit Realization
However, while this may raise short-term concerns about resistance above, it must be understood within a broader on-chain context. Such behavior is not uncommon in bull markets and cannot be used as a sole indicator of a cycle top.
Long-Term Holder Supply Continues to Grow
Long-term holder supply refers to the total Bitcoin held by wallets with a holding time exceeding 155 days, and this metric continues to climb despite price surges. This trend does not necessarily mean new buying is occurring, but rather indicates that Bitcoin is "aging" into long-term holding status without being transferred or sold.
Figure 2: Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Supply Notably Increases
In other words, many investors who bought in late 2024 or early 2025 are still holding, transitioning into long-term holders. This is a healthy dynamic typically seen in the early or middle stages of a bull market, without showing signs of large-scale distribution.
HODL Waves Analysis
To delve deeper, we used HODL Waves data, which segments wallets by their coin age. Focusing on wallets holding for 6 months or longer, we found that over 70% of Bitcoin supply is currently controlled by medium to long-term holders.
Figure 3: HODL Waves Analysis Shows Medium to Long-Term Investors Hold Majority Share
Interestingly, while this proportion remains high, it has begun to slightly decline, indicating that some long-term holders may be selling, even as long-term holder supply continues to grow. The primary driver of long-term supply growth seems to be short-term holders gradually "aging" into the 155+ day holding bracket, rather than massive new fund inflows.
Figure 4: Long-Term Holder Supply Change Rate Inversely Correlates with Bitcoin Price
Using raw data from the Bitcoin Magazine Pro API, we analyzed the change rate of long-term holder balances by wallet coin age. Historically, when this indicator significantly drops, it often coincides with cycle tops. Conversely, when the indicator rises sharply, it typically corresponds to market bottoms and deep accumulation phases.
Short-Term Changes and Distribution Ratio
To enhance the precision of these signals, the data can be more finely segmented by comparing "recent market entrants (0-1 month)" with "medium-term holders (1-5 years)". This coin age distribution comparison provides more frequent and real-time insights into distribution behavior.
Figure 5: Coin Age Distribution Ratio Provides Valuable Market Insights
We found that when the proportion of 1-5 year holders relative to new entrants sharply declines, it historically coincides with Bitcoin price tops. Conversely, when this ratio rapidly increases, with more Bitcoin flowing into the hands of more experienced investors, it often precedes significant price increases.
Changes in long-term investor behavior are one of the most effective ways to assess market sentiment and price volatility sustainability. Historical data shows that long-term holders often outperform short-term traders by buying during panic and holding long-term. By analyzing Bitcoin's age distribution structure, we can more accurately capture market tops and bottoms without relying on price trends or short-term sentiment.
Conclusion
Currently, long-term holders are showing only slight selling behavior, far from the scale seen at previous cycle tops. While profit-taking exists, its pace appears entirely manageable and part of a healthy market environment.
Considering the current bull market stage and institutional and retail investor participation, the data suggests we are still in a structurally strong phase, with room for further price increases as new funds continue to flow in.
