Prediction markets users are wagering millions of dollars on if and when Bitcoin will smash its latest price record, a few hours after the token crested $109,000 on Wednesday to reach an all-time high for the world's oldest cryptocurrency.
According to a Polymarket contract with $19 million in trading volume, Bitcoin has a 93% chance of hitting $110,000 by the end of May, while the odds it climbs to $115,000 or even $125,000 sit at 49% and 8%, respectively. Bettors assessed the token’s likelihood of hitting $150,000 or $200,000 at roughly 1%, the same data shows.
US-based Kalshi users also gambled on Bitcoin’s future price action, pouring roughly $3.5 million into a contract on the token’s year-end price. That betting pool shows Bitcoin has a more than 70% chance of hitting $125,000 by the end of 2025. The cryptocurrency’s odds of rising above $150,000 or $160,000, however, were much slimmer, resting at 37% and 31%, respectively.
Meanwhile, crypto-native trading platform Myriad Markets shows there is a 21.4% chance that Bitcoin will rise above $115,000 by the end of May 25. The market went live on Wednesday, a few hours after Bitcoin reached its latest high.
(Myriad Markets is a unit of Dastan, Decrypt’s parent company.)
The rash of wagers on Bitcoin’s price action came as the asset smashed its previous price record ahead of U.S. President Donald Trump’s dinner for investors in his meme coin, Official Trump. The dinner, which is scheduled for Thursday, aims to bring out more than 200 $TRUMP holders, who spent between $53,400 and $16.4 million for their seats, CBS MoneyWatch reported. The attendees won their plates in a token HODL-ing contest hosted by the creators of the president’s meme coin.
The attendees include Chinese billionaire Justin Sun, who bills himself as the token’s largest holder, as well as foreign investors from Australia and Singapore, among other countries. Other invitees’ identities remain a mystery to the public, but they are largely believed to be mostly foreign nationals—a sticking point for the dinner's detractors.
Bitcoin has retreated and was recently trading below $107,000, down more than 2% over the past hour and roughly flat over the past 24 hours.
The total market value of digital assets hit $3.38 trillion on Wednesday, up 1.34% a day ago, according to data provider CoinGecko. The market's 24-hour trading volume was up nearly 27% as of the time of writing.
Edited by James Rubin
