Bitcoin’s “shock” at $107,000: Is it a trap or a new starting point?

Bitcoin's breakthrough is deeply linked to the global monetary system reconstruction.

The USD index has fallen by 9% this year, creating anew low since April 2022.

However, contrary to traditional logic, the negative correlation between Bitcoin and the USD isweakening.

Analyst Lyn Alden points out:

USD weakness is the "necessary cost" of repairing the US financial system, and Bitcoin is upgrading from a "safe-haven alternative" to a "neutral reserve asset".

Key macro catalysts:

·Expectation of Federal Reserve Policy Shift

Although the probability of a June rate cut is only 12%, with the core CPI annual rate dropping to 2.8%, if the rate cut cycle starts in September, Bitcoin maychallenge 120,000 USD due to declining real interest rates.

·Geopolitical Trade Risk Premium

The 90-day tariff suspension agreement between China and the US has driven asurge in cross-border payment demand, with USDT on-chain transfer volume increasing by 45% week-on-week.

Meanwhile, New Hampshire and other states are incorporating Bitcoin intofiscal reserves, and Texas-relatedbills are entering the legislative process, with local policy breakthroughs constructing thelegitimacy framework of "digital gold".

·Liquidity Trap Warning

CoinMetrics data shows that the Bitcoin order book buy-sell depth ratio hasdeteriorated to 1:4.3, with order volume in the 62,000 - 65,000 USD range being only1/5 of the 2023 bull market.

This "high volatility, low liquidity" characteristic mayamplify flash crash risks, and caution is needed against systemic liquidity withdrawal caused by the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction.

The current market presents complexdifferentiation characteristics, highlighting Bitcoin's "de-equitization" process:

·Short-term Correlation Reversal

The S&P 500 index fell 1% due to Moody's downgrade of US debt rating, while Bitcoinrose against the trend by 2.3%, with a 30-day rolling correlation dropping to -0.2.

This is the first negative correlation since the "Black Thursday" in 2020, marking anincrease in crypto assets' pricing logic independence.

·Long-term Allocation Logic Convergence

RedStone Oracles research found that Bitcoin and S&P 500 index's 1-year correlation still reaches 0.65, as institutions like Bridgewater and Two Sigma incorporate BTC into "risk parity portfolios".

This "tactical divergence, strategic synergy" characteristic reflects the deepening acceptance of crypto assets by traditional asset management.

·Ecosystem's Hot and Cold Extremes

Ethereum's on-chain liquidation scale reaches $438 million, with DeFi protocol TVL dropping 12% week-on-week, while Solana ecosystem's Meme coin platform Pump.fun generates over $100 million in revenue in a single month.

The differentiation between new and old public chains reflects the market's shift from "technical narrative" to "traffic-driven", further highlighting Bitcoin's value as a "consensus foundation".

Bitcoin's ability to be independent of stock market fluctuations is a key signal of becoming the "ultimate value storage".

But caution is needed regarding thelinkage risk in the derivatives market (such as CME Bitcoin futures).

CryptoQuant on-chain data reveals akey warning:

Binance spot net trading volume increment rapidly climbs after breaking through 100,000 USD.Historical experience suggests such signals often accompany "local market tops".

Bull and bear battle focus:

·Bullish Support

Bitcoin ETF has seen net inflows for 5 consecutive weeks, with institutional holdings like MicroStrategy locking in costs at 92,000 USD, forming a "diamond bottom" support.

Meanwhile, the proportion of BTC held forover 5 years has risen to 28%, with the "diamond hands" group expanding andenhancing market resilience.

·Bearish Warning

After the miner halving, operational costs have risen to 40,000 USD, with net sales of 8,000 BTC in the past 30 days.

If the price breaks below the psychological level of $10,000, it may trigger "cost-line selling pressure".

When the price islower than 50% of the miner's cost (around $60,000), the historical average selling volume willincrease 3 times.

·Technical Indicator Cycle Warning

Bitcoin MVRV (Market Value/Realized Value) ratiorises to 3.2, close to the 2021 bull market peak (3.6),short-term speculative bubble warning is in effect.

But unlike 2021, the current exchange reserve is only 12% of circulation, a significant drop from 22% in 2021, indicating thatselling pressure is more dispersed.

Bitcoin's $107,000 game,

is essentially the collision

of institutionalization process

In the short term, the market faces technical correction and liquidity risks, but structural variables such as El Salvador's national reserves and ETF institutionalized capital inflows arereshaping its underlying logic as "digital gold".

For investors, it is necessary to remain rational amid the frenzy:

Manage positions well, maintain a base position while setting reasonable stop-loss; use hedging strategies to balance volatility; closely monitor macroeconomic data and grasp market trends.

The charm of the cryptocurrency market lies in its uncertainty, where each violent fluctuation could be a risk or an opportunity.

History will not simply repeat itself

But capital's game will eternally exist

When the market's clamor subsides, what truly stands the test are assets with both technical support and value consensus.

Will Bitcoin break through its historical high and start a new cycle?

Let's wait and see.