On May 19, QCP released its daily market observation, stating that under the pressure of US stocks, the Federal Reserve's continued cautious stance, and the US credit rating highlighting Washington's fiscal fragility, Trump seemed to be feeling the pressure.
However, Bitcoin performed relatively resilient, briefly touching $107,000 on Sunday. This initial rally was likely triggered by Metaplanet's announcement of purchasing Bitcoin for $104 million, while Strategy Inc also continued to increase its holdings. But this rally did not persist, with BTC perpetual contract funding rates surging, causing traders to take profits and leading to the liquidation of some high-leverage long positions.
Although BTC retraced some gains during the Asian trading session, it remains within its recent range and is supported by recovering institutional demand. Spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to attract capital inflows, indicating strong fundamental support.
Notably, even under Moody's downgrade of the US credit rating and a risk-averse market sentiment, BTC still managed to rise over the weekend, further reinforcing its positioning as a "value storage tool". This narrative is gaining more consensus and is expected to become a long-term positive catalyst.
Meanwhile, the narrative of the entire crypto market is heating up. Coinbase (COIN) will officially join the S&P 500 index tonight, which is not only symbolic but also represents increased mainstream acceptance and institutional credibility. This news comes at a perfect time following its strategic acquisition of Deribit.
The volatility market also reflects market optimism. Despite spot prices being range-bound and macro uncertainties persisting, the implied volatility of crypto assets remains relatively high. It's worth mentioning that the skew structure of Bitcoin call options remains stable across most tenors, suggesting the market still maintains a structurally bullish expectation.
