Written by: 1912212.eth, Foresight News
On May 19, Bitcoin briefly broke through $107,000, just $2,000 away from its all-time high. Ethereum hovered around $2,400, SOL around $170, and various Altcoins rose and then fell back after a short surge.
According to Coinglass data, the network's 24-hour liquidations totaled $577 million, with long positions liquidated at $351 million and short positions at $227 million, showing both long and short liquidations in a volatile market.
The US-China tariff war has temporarily ceased, and the Altcoin market has rebounded after hitting bottom. How will the crypto market continue to unfold?
Polymarket predicts 52% probability of BTC reaching $110,000 this month
The latest data shows that Polymarket predicts a 52% probability of BTC reaching $110,000 this month, up from just 37% on May 17.
The prediction market also forecasts a 20% probability of Bitcoin exceeding $115,000 in May, indicating strong bullish momentum. The total transaction volume of this prediction market is currently around $15 million.
Trader James Wynn: Low probability of Bitcoin dropping below $100,000
Trader James Wynn tweeted that he wishes BTC would pull back below $100,000 so he could add more positions. However, he believes this is unlikely to happen.
Glassnode: Long positions remain moderate, limited leverage suggests a healthy and sustainable trend
Glassnode tweeted that despite BTC's significant price increase, the perpetual futures funding rate remains at a neutral level of around 0.007% - indicating moderate long positions. The derivatives market seems to be catching up with the spot market, and limited leverage suggests a healthy and sustainable trend.
Willy Woo: Bitcoin still has room for growth, expects CAGR of 8% in 15-20 years
Famous crypto analyst Willy Woo posted on social media that Bitcoin has moved past the phase of multiple-fold annual gains seen in 2017. 2020 was a key year for Bitcoin's "institutionalization," with enterprises and sovereign entities beginning to accumulate Bitcoin. The compound annual growth rate dropped from over 100% to 30-40%. Bitcoin is now traded as the newest macro asset in 150 years, continuously absorbing global capital until reaching an "equilibrium point".
Considering long-term monetary expansion of about 5% and GDP growth of 3%, he believes Bitcoin's final compound annual growth rate will stabilize around 8%. This may take 15 to 20 years before reaching the "equilibrium point". Almost no other publicly investable asset can match Bitcoin's long-term performance.
Grayscale Research Head: Bitcoin dominance may stabilize between 60-70%, not entering Altcoin season
Zach Pandl, Research Head at crypto asset management company Grayscale, told Decrypt that Bitcoin's market dominance might stabilize in the 60-70% range, rather than experiencing a significant drop. "When the market focuses on macroeconomic instability and risks to the US dollar, Bitcoin's dominance may rise. When the market looks at various blockchain technology applications and innovations in the crypto space, Bitcoin's dominance may decrease."
CryptoQuant Analyst: Current cycle shows shorts are more cautious, typically a bullish signal
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr noted that compared to the 2021 bull market, short traders in the current bull market cycle are more cautious when establishing short positions. Only one significant long liquidation occurred during the pullback when Bitcoin reached the $80,000 level. The analyst pointed out that this shift in sentiment indicates shorts becoming more risk-averse, which is typically seen as a bullish signal.
