Author: TechFlow
Do you remember MapleStory, the game where you fought monsters, formed teams, and changed outfits?
Younger players might not have experienced it, but this 20-year-old game masterpiece carries the internet cafe memories of most people born in the 80s and 90s, and is one of the landmarks of online games entering China after the millennium.
Now, it has transformed into a blockchain game newcomer.
On May 15th, the governance token NXPC of the blockchain version MapleStory Universe was launched on exchanges like Binance, Upbit, Bithumb, gate.io, Bybit, Deepcoin, Bitget, Weex, and MEXC; the project token NXPC's price directly broke through $3, with its fully diluted valuation (FDV) soaring to $3 billion.
Accompanying the price surge was discussion about large account NXPC airdrops.
Under Binance's current Alpha points system, users meeting certain rules will also receive NXPC airdrops; calculated at NXPC's price at the time of writing, a general user could receive over 600 USDT per account, which could be considered the most lucrative "airdrop benefit" of the year.
Many players jokingly ask if there's still a chance to return to BSC, and the wealth effect has once again gathered attention. MapleStory itself represents old players' nostalgia, while also bringing some hope to the lagging blockchain game track.
Blockchain games, a track already disproven by the market, are viable again?
Is NXPC Really Viable?
We can examine NXPC's current surge from two perspectives: the project itself and comparison with blockchain game predecessors.
NXPC is the governance token of MapleStory Universe, launched by NEXPACE, the blockchain subsidiary of Korean game giant Nexon. MapleStory, as a classic MMORPG operating for 20 years, has over 180 million cumulative global players and historical revenue of $4 billion, making it an evergreen in the gaming world.
Now, Nexon is bringing this IP to the blockchain, attempting to create a community-driven digital economic ecosystem through MapleStory Universe.
According to the project's whitepaper, NXPC has a total supply of 1 billion tokens, with 16.37% (approximately 163.7 million) immediately unlocked through airdrops, and 80% reserved for future ecosystem rewards, aimed at encouraging long-term player and creator participation.
NXPC also has a sister token NESO, used for in-game transaction scenarios, which can be freely exchanged with NXPC, forming a dual-token model. This design attempts to find a balance between game economics and token value, but also gives many investors a sense of "gold farming" opportunities.
From this economic model, it's still the "main token - sub-token - NFT asset" circulation routine, where one token serves as a platform token with governance or staking functions, obtaining various rights designed by game rules; another token is purely consumed as in-game currency, with both tokens supporting the NFT equipment and prop economic circulation.
This is not fundamentally different from most previous blockchain games' gameplay.
If we compare it with previously popular blockchain game projects, we might be able to calculate a fair price range.
Has NXPC's current price of over $3 already reached its ceiling?
Based on the current 16.37% circulation (approximately 163.7 million tokens), referencing the current market value and historical peaks of top projects like Gala Games, The Sandbox, Decentraland, Axie Infinity, and MOBOX, we can make a theoretical calculation:
Current Market Value Benchmark: At the current price of $3, it's already higher than MOBOX's $0.24 and Axie Infinity's $2.17, and comparable to Decentraland's $3.4.
If benchmarked against Gala Games and The Sandbox's market values of $703 million and $691 million respectively, NXPC's price could potentially reach the $4.06-4.13 range.
However, compared to MOBOX's low valuation, NXPC's current price seems to already include high market expectations.
Historical Peak Benchmark: Reviewing the blockchain game bull market of 2021-2022, Gala Games and The Sandbox's market values once reached $6.9-7 billion. If calculated based on these projects' historical highest market values during that market environment, the price could potentially reach the $15-40 range.
But the premise is that NXPC must replicate these projects' ecosystem activity and market enthusiasm at that time.
From a fundamental perspective, the game track itself lacks significant narrative or technical breakthroughs, and relying solely on the old MapleStory IP to drive the price to this range seems overly optimistic.
Momentary Effect
From current data, NXPC looks more like a capital market fluctuation.
Binance's NXPC/USDT perpetual contract funding rate once dropped to -2%, now at -0.7%, meaning shorts need to pay longs fees. This negative premium is typically a sign of a short squeeze - a large number of short positions being forced to close, driving further price increases.
Meanwhile, NXPC's first-day listing on major exchanges like Binance ensures short-term trading depth and liquidity; multiple exchanges continuously listing contracts further stimulates speculative capital inflow.
MEXC data shows NXPC's 24-hour trading volume reached $6.85 million, revealing the speculative sentiment.
Back to fundamentals, NXPC also faces significant challenges in realizing its value.
First, the game is currently in public beta, and player retention and economic model stability have not been market-tested. Axie Infinity's lesson teaches us that blockchain game projects overly dependent on speculative drive while neglecting player experience and economic balance will ultimately struggle to sustain.
Secondly, NXPC's value highly depends on creator economy activity.
NXPC emphasizes creator economy, not just "gold farming". MapleStory Universe allows players and creators to produce content through Synergy Apps, such as designing unique equipment or levels, and minting them as NFTs for trading using NXPC.
If creator participation is insufficient or NFT item market liquidity is low, NXPC's demand could significantly decrease. Shifting from "Play-to-Earn" to "Create-to-Earn" is not novel and has been observed in previous blockchain game projects.
From crypto Twitter's reaction, NXPC's popularity indeed benefits from MapleStory's IP appeal and wealth effect, but the community's focus is more on short-term gains than the game ecosystem's long-term value.
Another key point is that this is a Korean game, and it's an undisputed fact that young Koreans are enthusiastic about token trading, and the market has the potential to drive NXPC's rise. Upbit's indicator changes might more significantly influence NXPC's fate.
However, you can't conclude that the entire garden is thriving just because one flower blooms well. The fate of blockchain games remains undecided.
MapleStory is restarting its adventure in the crypto world, but facing more youths who have already lost money in blockchain games and left the scene.
