Market Overview: Ethereum Leads, Crypto Assets Surge Across the Board
Over the past 24 hours, the cryptocurrency market has welcomed a new round of excitement. Ethereum (ETH) strongly broke through the $2,700 mark, reaching a high of $2,725, with a daily increase of 8% and a cumulative increase of over 50% in the past 7 days, marking the best weekly performance since 2022.
Bitcoin (BTC) simultaneously rose to $104,200, with a 24-hour increase of 1.5%, firmly staying above $100,000; Solana (SOL) rose over 5% to $185, while MEME coins like Doge (DOGE) and Shib (SHIB) followed with 4%-5% increases. Behind this surge, record-breaking Bitcoin ETF inflows, Ethereum's technical upgrade, and macroeconomic shifts have created resonance, driving the crypto market into a new phase of "institutional bull market".
Bitcoin ETF: Countertrend Inflow Exceeds $41 Billion, Becoming Core Entry Channel for Institutions
1. Historic Breakthrough: Record-Breaking Capital Inflow
As of May 13, the cumulative net inflow of US Bitcoin spot ETFs reached $41.1 billion, surpassing the February 2024 peak and setting a new historical record. This data signifies that traditional financial institutions' allocation demand for Bitcoin has continued to warm up since its approval in January, with funds consistently flowing in even during the market correction in April.
2. Policy and Market Sentiment Resonance
The Stablecoin Regulation Act promoted by the Trump administration at the beginning of the year and the SEC chairman's pro-crypto nominee nomination cleared policy obstacles for the ETF. Although funds briefly flowed out due to global trade war concerns in March-April (cumulative outflow of $5 billion), with the US-UK tariff agreement and the restart of US-China trade negotiations, risk appetite rebounded. In May, ETF fund inflows in a single week soared to $882 million, with institutional funds accelerating to buy the dips.
3. Analyst Perspectives: Long-Term Confidence Indicator
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas noted: "Net inflow is the most authentic confidence indicator. Even during the peak of Trump's tariff panic, funds quickly flowed back, proving that the 'digital gold' narrative of Bitcoin has been mainstream recognized." ETF.com analyst Sumit Roy added that ETFs have lowered the entry barriers for retail and institutional participation, becoming the core driving force behind Bitcoin breaking $100,000.
Ethereum's Crazy Rally: Triple Engine of Technical Upgrade + Short Squeeze + Whale Accumulation
1. Pectra Upgrade Lands, Technical Barriers Strengthened
On May 7, Ethereum successfully implemented the Pectra upgrade, introducing account abstraction (EIP-7702), enhancing staking limits, and significantly reducing gas fees while increasing network flexibility. This upgrade is seen as a key move to counter competing public chains like Solana, directly stimulating developer and investor confidence.
2. Futures Market "Short Squeeze" Ignites Short-Term Market
From May 8, Ethereum futures market short positions were massively liquidated, with a cumulative liquidation amount of $438 million, far exceeding long liquidation ($211 million). Price surge forced shorts to close positions, creating an upward spiral. During the same period, Ethereum's open interest surged 25% (from $21.28 billion to $26.77 billion), with perpetual contract funding rates rising to 0.15%, indicating bullish market dominance.
3. Whale Addresses Strategically Accumulating
On-chain data shows that whales holding over 10,000 ETH have been continuously accumulating since late April, with holdings rising to the highest level since March 2025 (over 40.75 million ETH). Whale movements typically signal large investors' recognition of medium to long-term value, further consolidating bullish market expectations.
Macro Drivers: Inflation Cooling and Trade Easing Boost Risk Assets
1. Fed Rate Cut Expectations Warming Up
April US CPI year-on-year increase was 2.3% (previous 2.8%), close to the Fed's 2% target, with core CPI month-on-month increase of only 0.2%, lower than expected. After the data release, market probability of September rate cut rose to 48.9%, with liquidity easing expectations stimulating capital inflow into the crypto market.
2. Global Trade Tension Easing
The US and UK reached a tariff agreement on May 8, reducing UK car export tariffs to the US from 27.5% to 10% and zeroing steel tariffs; US-China trade talks restarting reduced "tariff war" risks. The dismantling of trade barriers creates a favorable environment for risk assets like cryptocurrencies.
3. Traditional Financial Market Linkage
Nasdaq and S&P 500 indexes rose 1.6% and 0.7% respectively, with tech stocks and crypto assets simultaneously strengthening. Amberdata derivatives head Greg Magadini noted: "ETH's correlation with US stocks is increasing. If risk assets continue to rebound, Ethereum may break through the $2,800 resistance."
Market Concerns: High-Level Oscillation and Technical Risks
1. Hidden Callback Signals in Options Market
Despite spot price surge, Ethereum options implied volatility remains low, indicating market's insufficient preparation for short-term surge. Deribit data shows $2,800 as a key gamma resistance level, with potential profit-taking if not effectively broken.
2. Institutional Fund Divergence
Bitcoin ETF's gold-sucking ability far exceeds other assets (Ethereum ETF weekly inflow only $1.5 million), and competing public chains like Solana and Sui are diverting funds (Sui YTD inflow $84 million), potentially intensifying market volatility.
3. Regulatory and Geopolitical Variables
Trump's "digital gold strategy" still has uncertainties, and SEC's examination of Ethereum's security status is unresolved. Sudden policy shifts could lead to severe market adjustments.
Conclusion: Bull Market's Second Half Begins, Seeking Structural Opportunities in Volatility
This crypto market surge is both a milestone in Bitcoin ETF's institutionalization process and a result of Ethereum's technological ecosystem resonating with macro dividends. Short-term, the market needs to digest gains and focus on the $2,800 key resistance; long-term, institutional fund entry, technological upgrades, and rate cut cycles may collectively support bull market continuation. Investors should pay attention to ETH/BTC, spot ETF dynamics, Fed policy paths, and Layer2 ecosystem progress, capturing structural opportunities amid volatility.
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