Master's Hot Topic Discussion:
Was the expected CPI decline supposed to boost the probability of July rate cuts? However, macro experts all have stern faces and still don't buy it, with the interest rate swap market directly giving a 35.9% chance. It's damn frustrating, how can I believe this?
Inflation was hit by tariffs, causing prices to rise, but rebounds have momentum. This transmission process cannot be stopped, and without concrete evidence in the next data release, July rate cuts are absolutely off the table!
If rate cuts are further delayed, we'll have to negotiate with interest rates, with the earliest possible relief not coming until September. Back to the old routine of two rate cuts - who hasn't been through this before?
Returning to the market, we can only observe as we go. But Master heard rumors about an imminent major drop? I don't think there's any reason for that, no negative factors, it'll likely just oscillate.
Net capital inflows are tightening simultaneously, which signals the script is in progress - don't mess around. On the macro calendar, besides Friday's inflation expectations and consumer confidence index, the rest is just a boring process.
Regarding liquidity, this wave isn't like being so drunk you want to vomit immediately. Except for 106k bleeding a bit, other areas remain relatively scarce. Even a major liquidation won't last long; if prices rise, it'll trigger another round of needle-like liquidation.
Once it breaks above 106.6k, a visible pullback will begin. If liquidity doesn't follow, long positions will just be self-entertaining. Conversely, short sellers are too lazy to enter, so we must restrain our short mentality. After all, the trend hasn't broken, and continuing to be long is understandable.
In plain words, the current market is an oscillating range under a long trend, making space for the channel and allowing upward momentum to build repeatedly. A false breakout can happen in minutes, potentially testing above 106k.
Master's Trend Analysis:
Resistance Levels Reference:
First Resistance: 105100
Second Resistance: 104600
Support Levels Reference:
First Support: 103300
Second Support: 102300
Today's Recommendation:
During the short-term price pullback, use 60 and 120-day moving averages as short-term support. As long as the price can stabilize between 103 to 103.3K, long positions still have a chance to continue.
To see long positions continue in the short term, it's best to first build a base in the first support area of 104.3 to 104.6K, then break upward. If repeatedly failing to break through this area, be cautious of short-term downside risks from selling pressure.
If successfully breaking 104.6K and stabilizing in the second resistance zone of 104.6–105.1K, it will open up greater upward momentum. The current pullback has a higher probability of breaking the first support at 103.3K in the short term.
However, if it can hold and stabilize at the convergence of 60 and 120-day moving averages, a short-term rebound is expected. If both the ascending trend line and moving averages are lost, the decline may extend to around the second support at 102.3K. At 102.3K, pay special attention to buying opportunities.
5.14 Master's Wave Trading Setup:
Long Entry Reference: 102300-103300 area, batch buy. Target: 104600-105100
Short Entry Reference: 104600-105100 area, batch short. Target: 103300-102300
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