Last week (May 6-12), BTC and ETH both surged, with BTC price returning to $100,000 and ETH rising over 45% during the week. Driven by the 10% tariff agreement between the US and UK and Trump's positive remarks, BTC price broke through the $100,000 mark from $95,784.61, then stabilized, reaching a high of $105,819.45 on the 12th. Currently, BTC price is stable around $102,498, with a maximum weekly increase of 10.47%.
Boosted by network upgrades and easing economic conditions, ETH surged 45.77% last week. On May 8, ETH rebounded from a low of $1,789.12, rising over 40% within 72 hours and breaking through the key resistance level of $2,600. On the 12th, ETH peaked at $2,624, then slightly pulled back, with the current price around $2,453 (source: Binance Spot, May 13, 14:50).
Market Interpretation
Tariff Drama Nears End, US Reaches Agreements with Multiple Trade Partners
Recently, US tariffs have gradually shifted from intense confrontation to peaceful resolution. As the US signed agreements with multiple trade partners last week, international capital began flowing back into the US market, causing risk assets to rise. By the US stock market close on May 13, the Nasdaq rose 4.35%, S&P 500 rose 3.26%, and Dow Jones rose 2.81%, with all three major indices closing at high levels.
Tech stocks performed impressively, with Amazon up nearly 8%, Meta up nearly 8%, Tesla up 6.8%, Apple up 6.3%, and NVIDIA and AMD up over 5%. Utilities and consumer staples sectors pulled back.
US-China Reach Geneva Trade Agreement, Crypto Market Receives Positive Catalyst
On May 12, the US and China reached a temporary tariff agreement in Geneva, Switzerland, agreeing to significantly reduce bilateral tariffs in the next three months, with US rates dropping from 145% to 30% and China's from 125% to 10%, and establishing a continuous consultation mechanism. After the announcement, market expectations for inflation and US dollar appreciation cooled, while expectations for a dollar liquidity turning point warmed, causing the crypto market to strengthen overall. BTC briefly rose to $105,000, with US Treasury yields rising simultaneously, with 2-year and 10-year rates increasing by 12 and 8 basis points, respectively.
CoinW data shows that the global crypto market cap rose to $3.59 trillion last week, a 2.5% increase. The market expects the Fed may cut rates early in Q3 2025, further benefiting crypto assets.
The agreement significantly reduced geopolitical risk premiums, with market concerns about supply chain disruptions weakening and risk assets flowing clearly. CoinW data shows that the global crypto market cap rose to $3.59 trillion last week, a 2.5% increase. The market expects the Fed may cut rates early in Q3 2025, further benefiting crypto assets. Meanwhile, regulatory uncertainty remains the primary risk. With speculative heat rising and liquidity concentrating, investors should be cautious of short-term correction risks.
ETH Surges 40% Short-Term, Enters Overbought Technical Zone
After a previous decline, ETH saw a strong upward trend last week, with a short-term increase of over 45%, rising from $1,730 to above $2,600. It not only broke through its previous oscillation range but also topped traditional media search rankings, drawing attention to the ETH ecosystem.
This ETH rally was driven by two main factors. First, continuous capital inflow, long positions increasing, and short squeeze. On-chain data shows continuous capital inflow, with large buy orders concentrated in mainstream exchanges like Binance and Coinbase. In the futures market, long positions increased, with CME data showing institutional buy positions growing over 15% in a week.
On the other hand, Layer 2 ecosystem activity, rising ETH staking yields, and the upcoming ETH upgrade (Pectra) became major positive factors, boosting market expectations for ETH's long-term value. Investors should be cautious of market overheating risks in the short term, as ETH has entered the technical overbought zone, with some profit-taking beginning.
BTC Spot ETF Sees Continuous Three-Week Capital Inflow, Trump's Policy Expectations Drive Market Optimism
Last week, BTC spot ETF saw a net inflow of $920 million, achieving three consecutive weeks of net capital inflow, with the previous two weeks at $3.03 billion and $1.81 billion, respectively. Continuous capital inflow indicates sustained market confidence in BTC's value and future trend.
This rally is closely related to Trump's policies. On May 8, Trump announced reaching a tariff agreement with major powers on social media and stated it was a "good time to buy crypto assets". Additionally, pro-crypto individuals being nominated as SEC chair and progress in stablecoin legislation further strengthened market expectations of a US policy shift.
More Information
US April CPI Data to Reveal Inflation Slowdown Expectations, May Drive BTC to New High
The US April Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released at 8 PM Beijing time on Tuesday, with the market generally expecting confirmation of an inflation slowdown trend. This may increase expectations of Fed rate cuts and drive BTC to hit a new historical high, while also accelerating Altcoin market growth.
CPI data provides crucial guidance for Fed monetary policy. Rising rate cut expectations will be a direct catalyst for high-risk assets like BTC. However, core CPI trends remain a key variable; if rent or service prices rise, it could lead to core CPI exceeding expectations, thus weakening rate cut expectations.
South Korean Democratic Party Establishes Digital Asset Committee Before Presidential Election, Policy Support Drives Industry Development
On May 13, the South Korean Democratic Party announced that its presidential election preparatory committee's digital asset committee will hold its first meeting. The committee has two subgroups, one focusing on industrial growth and innovation, the other on policy and legal framework support. The market has positive expectations for this new policy, anticipating it will attract more capital into the digital asset industry.
Disclaimer: The above content does not constitute investment advice, sales offer, or invitation to purchase for residents of Hong Kong SAR, the United States, Singapore, or other countries or regions where such offers or invitations may be legally prohibited. Digital asset trading may involve significant risks and instability. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions based on the information provided in this content.
