10 万美金只是起点？
撰文：Lawrence，火星财经
第一部分：比特币矿工抛售压力降至 2024 年以来最低——市场蓄力再创新高？
1. 矿工行为转变：从抛售转向持有
根据加密货币分析平台 Alphractal 的最新数据，比特币矿工抛售压力指标（衡量矿工 30 天内流出量与储备量的比率）已跌破下轨，达到 2024 年以来的最低水平。这一现象表明，矿工正从过去「抛售以覆盖运营成本」的模式转向战...

<div><div>10 万美金只是起点？</div><p><span>撰文：Lawrence，火星财经</span></p><h2>第一部分：比特币矿工抛售压力降至 2024 年以来最低——市场蓄力再创新高？</h2><p><strong>1. 矿工行为转变：从抛售转向持有</strong></p><p><img src="https://upload.techflowpost.com/upload/images/20250512/2025051217053658840864.jpg"></p><p>根据加密货币分析平台 Alphractal 的最新数据，比特币矿工抛售压力指标（衡量矿工 30 天内流出量与储备量的比率）已跌破下轨，达到 2024 年以来的最低水平。这一现象表明，矿工正从过去「抛售以覆盖运营成本」的模式转向战略性囤积。</p><p>这与 2024 年减半后矿工收入腰斩的困境形成鲜明对比（当时矿工日抛售量从 900 枚增至 1200 枚），但当前市场环境的变化促使矿工调整策略：</p><ul><li><p>盈利预期驱动囤积：随着比特币价格近期突破 10 万美元并逼近历史高点，矿工更倾向于持有比特币以等待更高收益，而非短期套现。</p></li><li><p>行业结构性优化：上市公司主导的矿业规模化发展（如 Bitfarms、CleanSpark）降低了低效矿工的退出风险，行业集中度提升缓解了抛压。</p></li><li><p>历史经验借鉴：过去周期中，矿工过度杠杆化和长期持有曾导致流动性危机（如 2018 年熊市），如今更注重短期财务稳定性。</p></li></ul><p><strong>2. 链上数据揭示的市场韧性</strong></p><p>Alphractal 的矿工卖压指标显示，当前市场结构与 2024 年初的「恐慌性抛售」截然不同：</p><ul><li><p>长期持有者主导：目前持有时间超过 6 个月的比特币占比超 80%，远低于历史周期顶部的短期持有者主导比例 1，为价格提供稳定支撑。</p></li><li><p>交易所储备新低：比特币交易所储备量持续下降，表明市场正处于「高速累积期」，抛售压力被场外交易或机构持仓分散。</p></li><li><p>衍生品市场风险：尽管现货市场稳定，但 10 万至 11 万美元区间存在大量高杠杆多头头寸，若价格波动可能引发数十亿美元级清算潮。</p></li></ul><p><strong>3. 价格走势与未来预期</strong></p><p>截至 2025 年 5 月 12 日，比特币价格报 104,250 美元，24 小时涨幅 1%，过去 1 个月累计上涨超 30%。市场对后续走势的分歧焦点在于：</p><ul><li><p>技术面信号：RSI（75）显示超买，但 MACD 持续上行；关键支撑位 10,000 美元若失守可能触发短期持有者抛售。</p></li><li><p>宏观变量影响：美联储降息预期（若 2025 年降息超 100 基点）可能为比特币提供「戴维斯双击」机会，但滞胀风险或削弱其避险属性。</p></li><li><p>矿工行为动态：若价格突破 11 万美元，矿工抛售压力可能回升，但当前低抛售水平预示市场或进入「冷静上涨期」。</p></li></ul><h2>第二部分：中美贸易协议「实质性进展」背后的市场疑虑</h2><h3>1. 白宫声明与协议轮廓</h3><p><img src="https://upload.techflowpost.com/upload/images/20250512/2025051217053671382867.jpg"></p><p>5 月 11 日，美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特与贸易代表杰米森·格里尔联合宣布，美中贸易谈判取得「实质性进展」，双方就以下领域达成原则性共识：</p><ul><li><p>市场准入：中国承诺扩大美国农产品进口，美国部分科技产品关税豁免延长。</p></li><li><p>知识产权保护：建立跨境执法协作机制，降低技术转让壁垒。</p></li><li><p>争端解决机制：设立常设磋商平台以预防贸易摩擦升级。</p></li></ul><h3>2. 市场反应与隐忧</h3><p>尽管官方释放积极信号，但缺乏协议细节导致投资者谨慎乐观：</p><ul><li><p>不确定性残留：特朗普政府政策反复性（如 2024 年电子关税豁免「一日游」）削弱市场信任，协议落地前风险资产仍承压。</p></li><li><p>结构性矛盾未解：中美在半导体、人工智能等领域的竞争性政策（如「贸易战 2.0」）可能通过非关税手段延续。</p></li><li><p>流动性影响分化：若协议推动美元指数（DXY）回落，比特币或受益于「反法币」叙事重启；但若谈判破裂引发避险需求，黄金可能分流资金。</p></li></ul><h3>3. 全球经济的连锁效应</h3><p>中美贸易缓和可能带来的系统性影响包括：</p><ul><li><p>供应链重塑：协议或加速「近岸外包」趋势，墨西哥、东南亚制造业枢纽地位提升，加密货币跨境支付需求增长。</p></li><li><p>通胀缓解预期：关税削减有望降低美国 CPI 压力，为美联储降息提供空间，间接利好风险资产。</p></li><li><p>地缘风险转移：若中美合作强化，俄乌冲突、中东局势等「替代性危机」可能成为市场波动新源头。</p></li></ul><h2>第三部分：双主线交织下的市场博弈与投资策略</h2><h3>1. 比特币与宏观政策的共振</h3><ul><li><p>利率敏感性与相关性：比特币与纳斯达克指数相关性（0.78）显示其仍未脱离传统风险资产框架，中美贸易协议若提振科技股，比特币或同步受益。</p></li><li><p>矿工行为作为先行指标：历史数据显示，矿工抛售压力触底后，比特币往往进入上行周期（如 2023 年矿工投降后的牛市），当前低抛售水平或预示类似趋势。</p></li></ul><h3>2. 风险与机会评估</h3><ul><li><p>短期波动风险：比特币衍生品杠杆堆积与中美协议细节不明朗可能引发价格震荡，支撑位 10,000 美元成多空分水岭。</p></li><li><p>长期叙事强化：比特币 ETF 日均吸筹量（800 枚）仍高于矿工产出（450 枚），机构化进程抵消部分市场冲击。</p></li></ul><h2>结语：复杂市场中的确定性逻辑</h2><p>2025 年 5 月的全球市场正站在比特币「减半后周期」与中美「贸易关系再平衡」的双重节点。矿工的低抛售压力与白宫的协议进展看似独立，实则共同指向一个核心命题：流动性重构下的资产再定价。无论是比特币突破前高还是中美协议落地，市场终将验证一个真理——在宏观铁幕与加密叙事的碰撞中，只有兼具弹性与效率的资产才能赢得长期胜利。</p></div>

矿工持仓创周期新低 + 中美关税豁免，比特币开启狂暴模式

$100,000 Just a Starting Point?
Written by: Lawrence, Mars Finance

Part One: Bitcoin Miners' Selling Pressure Drops to Lowest Level Since 2024 - Market Preparing for a New High?

1. Miners' Behavior Shift: From Selling to Holding
According to the latest data from crypto analysis platform <Alphractal>, the Bitcoin miner selling pressure indicator (measuring the ratio of miners' outflow to reserves within 30 days) has fallen below the lower rail, reaching the lowest level since 2024. This phenomenon indicates that miners are transitioning from the previous model of "selling to cover operating costs" to a more strategic approach...

<div><div>$10,000 Is Just the Starting Point?</div><p><span>Written by: Lawrence, Mars Finance</span></p><h2>Part One: Bitcoin Miner Selling Pressure Drops to Lowest Level Since 2024 - Market Preparing for a New High?</h2><p><strong>1. Miner Behavior Shift: From Selling to Holding</strong></p><p><img src="https://upload.techflowpost.com/upload/images/20250512/2025051217053658840864.jpg"></p><p>According to the latest data from crypto analysis platform Alphractal, the Bitcoin miner selling pressure indicator (measuring the ratio of miner outflows to reserves over 30 days) has fallen below the lower rail, reaching the lowest level since 2024. This phenomenon indicates that miners are shifting from the past strategy of "selling to cover operating costs" to strategic accumulation.</p><p>This contrasts sharply with the miners' income being halved after the 2024 halving (when daily selling volume increased from 900 to 1,200 coins), but the current market environment is driving miners to adjust their strategies:</p><ul><li><p>Profit Expectations Driving Accumulation: With Bitcoin's price recently breaking $10,000 and approaching historical highs, miners are more inclined to hold Bitcoin to await higher returns rather than short-term cash-out.</p></li><li><p>Structural Industry Optimization: The scaled development of mining by listed companies (such as Bitfarms, CleanSpark) reduces the exit risk of inefficient miners, and increased industry concentration alleviates selling pressure.</p></li><li><p>Learning from Historical Experience: In past cycles, over-leveraging and long-term holding by miners led to liquidity crises (like the 2018 bear market), so now they focus more on short-term financial stability.</p></li></ul>

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Miners' holdings hit a new low in the cycle + China-US tariff exemptions, Bitcoin enters a frenzy mode

Institutional investors are changing the Bitcoin market landscape - as large organized entities continue to consume newly mined Bitcoin supply, MicroStrategy's Bitcoin hoarding speed has exceeded the total mining output, causing the annual deflation rate of the fixed-supply Bitcoin to reach -2.33%. Ki Young Ju, CEO and market analyst of <CRO> CryptoQuant, pointed out: "The 555,000 Bitcoins held by the company are in a non-liquid state with no selling plans, and this portion of holdings alone causes a -2.23% annual deflation rate, and if calculated including other..."

Bitcoin enters the era of negative inflation: MicroStrategy swallows 2,000 BTC per day, supply tightening may trigger a new round of bull market

<Marsbit Finance News>, on May 10th, this Wednesday, New Hampshire passed a bill allowing the state to create a strategic Bitcoin reserve. One day later, Arizona also passed legislation supporting a cryptocurrency reserve. As the November election approaches, the momentum at the state level reflects further attention from political leaders to digital asset policies. Recent optimistic remarks by President Trump about the upcoming US-China trade negotiations have also eased market anxiety. These remarks echo the new trade agreement signed by the United States and the United Kingdom, which will eliminate reciprocal tariffs and lower tariffs on US goods, further boosting confidence in the stock and crypto markets. 

Analysts say the recent trend marks a decisive break from the sluggish price behavior that plagued Altcoins in March and April. "Traders believe the crypto industry may have finally found its second spring as a hedge against market uncertainty," Nick Ruck, director of LVRG Research, said in a Telegram chat. "Investors are changing their perception of cryptocurrencies as Altcoins have escaped negative trends and gained buying pressure due to a re-emerging risk appetite," Ruck added.

Ethereum's 30% rise this week is also attributed to increased institutional interest and momentum from the Pectra upgrade, which introduces long-awaited execution layer reforms aimed at improving efficiency and scalability. "This upgrade provides Ethereum with much-needed reforms to consolidate its position as the leading chain in increasingly fierce competition," said Mei from BTSE. "Given that Ethereum's price is far below its historical high, we may see significant upside potential in the coming weeks and months, especially as macro concerns ease and institutions become more willing to allocate to cryptocurrencies and crypto ETFs."

Nevertheless, traders are closely watching this weekend's US-China trade negotiations. The talks will begin late Saturday in Switzerland, and any signs of deadlock or escalating tensions could weaken the current rally.

Investor sentiment towards cryptocurrencies is changing rapidly as Altcoin break out of their slump

MicroStrategy (Strategy) founder Michael Saylor, in an interview on 5/10, once again discussed how the BTC standard has become the best financial strategy for current enterprises. He also stated that by 2045, if a single BTC is worth 13 million dollars, every BTC not bought now means missing out on 13 million dollars in the future. So far, MicroStrategy has accumulated 550,000 BTC, with a total holding value of over $58.2 billion.