Master Chen's Hot Topic Discussion:
After the weekend needle insertion volatility until this morning, BTC remains resilient. Currently, the only potential major correction catalyst might be Japan's interest rate hike. After all, it occurs approximately every 6 months, and July is just the right time.
Reviewing the unilateral rally from October 28 to December 18 last year, it peaked after 40-plus days. This time will be similar, with a rally around 50 days potentially creating another exciting wave.
In my personal expectation, the true peak and major correction will most likely occur in July, the first month of the third quarter. If BTC can return to its pre-December 19 high within a month, who could possibly resist such momentum?
Most market participants expect a surge in the third quarter followed by a decline in the fourth quarter? No, I believe the script is exactly the opposite. The second quarter will continue to rise, the third quarter will retrace, and the fourth quarter will reach the peak.
Looking at the liquidation levels: The area between 105k and 106.3k is a large new liquidity zone, with a clear liquidation target. As long as the price doesn't break below 102k, all downward movements are meant to absorb the shorts' knives.
Breaking below 102k? Then directly buy the dips at 100800, sweeping away all the liquidity in that area. No significant long liquidity below 100800? Want to go lower? Unless there's major negative news, it'll likely be a needle-like probe, immediately pulling back above 102k to continue pushing.
Once the liquidation market starts, after killing high-position shorts, do you expect it to fly past 106.3k? Don't dream. It'll surge and then retrace, following the same liquidation logic.
Regarding ETH, it's been blazing hot, directly trending on Weibo and TikTok. This ETH rally is likely related to BlackRock's SEC interaction, reportedly discussing ETF and staking with the new SEC chairman last week. Of course, this might not be the only reason, but it certainly has substance.
After the market makers' wash, it's the first wave of muscle-flexing. The next is the second wave of building consensus. Will it be BTC's main rising wave to start the bull market, while ETH's main wave stagnates?
Master Chen isn't clear yet, but I previously said ETH needs a narrative. Once the price goes up, people will naturally create a story for it.
The market is full of emotional premium, and the retail investors are excited again: waiting for the next big surge? I advise you not to dream. I'm currently focused on the correction, waiting for a correction at the same level as this rally.
Who's getting trapped? Those stubborn fools arguing with me. After five waves of rise, a correction is inevitable. When you're crying and cutting losses, I'll just be laughing while watching you dive.
Master Chen's Trend Analysis:
Resistance Levels Reference:
First Resistance: 106000
Second Resistance: 104600
Support Levels Reference:
First Support: 103300
Second Support: 102300
Today's Recommendation:
The first resistance at 104.6K is an area repeatedly tested for pullback, and a short-term strong resistance. If the price breaks through the first resistance of 104.6K, it will generate upward momentum, with the target adjustable to the second resistance of 106K, thus opening further upside space.
In the short term, the first support is set at 103.3K. If the price breaks below the upward trend line 1, a short-term adjustment will occur, with the target in the 103K to 103.3K range.
The current trend remains upward. Pay attention to the real-time movement of upward trend lines 1 and 2, and set the 102K to 102.3K area as a critical support zone.
Focus on the 120-period moving average trend and use upward trend lines 1 and 2 as stage supports. As long as the price maintains the previous low, the long trend can be maintained.
Although there's a gradual top formation with decreasing highs on the hourly level, the price will likely raise its high points through short-term adjustments.
5.12 Master Chen's Wave Trading Preparation:
Long Entry Reference: 102300-103300 interval, batch long. Target: 104600-106000
Short Entry Reference: Not recommended
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