Ethereum (ETH) has recently shown strong upward momentum surpassing Bitcoin, and this morning, after Trump announced significant progress in trade talks with China, ETH briefly broke through $2,600, reigniting short-term market optimism.
Meanwhile, the CMC's Altcoin Season Index has recently rebounded above 40, reaching a 90-day high. This has sparked heated discussion about whether an Altcoin Season is imminent.
Analysts' Divergent Views
Some market observers hold an optimistic view of Altcoins' future. Analyst Mister Crypto predicts that the market may see a "life-changing" trend in the next three to six months, with Altcoins potentially delivering 40% daily returns becoming the norm.
Technical trader Moustache also points out that Altcoins often experience explosive growth after repeated accumulation, believing the current market structure is similar to 2016 and 2020, and claiming that "the 2025 Altcoin Season has officially begun".
Cautious Perspective: Market Heat and Challenges Coexist
However, not all analysts are optimistic. Analyst 2Lambroz, while acknowledging the potential arrival of Altcoin Season, points out that the market lacks a strong narrative belief. He observes that unlike in 2021, there is currently no massive retail investor influx, and traders' fund rotation is faster, lacking long-term holding motivation.
Commentator Rekt Fencer questions the optimistic sentiment, noting that most Altcoins have fallen 90% since last December, and the recent 10% rebound could be overinterpreted, sarcastically asking: "Is this the Altcoin Season we've been waiting for?"
He believes that Bitcoin's dominance remains above the critical 54% threshold, and institutional preference for Bitcoin may continue to influence fund flows. This market cycle may be more differentiated, with significant performance variations across different Altcoin sectors.
Key Indicators and Macroeconomic Variables
Beyond technical analysis, the future of the Altcoin market is influenced by multiple key factors.
First, Bitcoin's price and market dominance are crucial. While Bitcoin's price rise boosts market sentiment, changes in its dominance remain key to determining the Altcoin Season.
Second, overall market sentiment and risk appetite are important factors. Optimistic developments in global macroeconomic and geopolitical landscapes, such as progress in US-China trade negotiations and easing tensions between India and Pakistan, could drive funds into risk assets, including cryptocurrencies and meme coins.
Kronos Research CEO Hank Huang stated that the cryptocurrency market is rebounding on the wave of global optimism, with Ethereum's strong rebound driving the Altcoin market. However, the key points of observation remain whether funds can effectively rotate from Bitcoin to Altcoins and the degree of retail participation.
