Trend Research, since the research report was released network-wide on April 24, 2025, ETH has risen from $1,800 to around $2,400, with an increase of about 30% in one month. The pre-report prediction started at $1,450, and as an asset with a trillion-scale market, it is a rare opportunity for large funds to achieve high returns in the short term. The main reasons for firmly being bullish at that time include: ETH still has robust financial data, and its position as a critical infrastructure in crypto remains unchanged; the massive adjustment at the short-term high point (a decline of over 60% in 4 months); the large short position in the derivatives market, rising after bottom spot volume to an important support-resistance exchange area, continuous layout of traditional finance, and gradual ETF inflow. Currently, our prediction for ETH is that in the long term, it can break through $5,000, and in an optimistic scenario, if BTC rises to over $300,000 in this cycle, ETH is expected to reach $10,000, and we will continue to capture opportunities related to the ETH ecosystem.
I. ETH Valuation Forecast
An important background for the new valuation of ETH is capturing the trend of key digital assets integrating with traditional finance. We have noted that BTC, as the most important digital asset, after the spot ETF approval, has opened the prelude to being incorporated into strategic reserve assets by U.S. states, gradually becoming a scale expansion and strategic alternative to dollar assets. Currently ranking 6th in global asset market value, the U.S. BTC spot ETF currently manages approximately $118.6 billion in assets, accounting for about 6% of Bitcoin's total market value. The convergence trend between crypto assets and traditional finance is beyond doubt. CZ stated in an interview in Dubai in May that Bitcoin's price in this market cycle could reach $500,000 to $1 million.
ETH still maintains robust financial data, and its position as the most important infrastructure in crypto finance remains unchanged. Ethereum's DeFi total TVL is around $60 billion, occupying over 53% of the global DeFi market, with a stablecoin market value of $124 billion, accounting for over 50% of the global stablecoin total market value. The total AUM of Ethereum ETF is $7.2 billion, with BlackRock's tokenized money market fund BUIDL having an investment scale of approximately $2.7 billion in the Ethereum ecosystem, representing 92% of its total assets.
ETH experienced three tops at $4,000 in 2024 before quickly falling to around $1,300, with an ATH of $4,800+. Based on the following potential factors, we predict ETH's price will reach $5,000 in this cycle:
- Imminent end of U.S. QT and further interest rate cuts
- New SEC chair may bring breakthroughs in ETH on-chain tokenization and staking-related bills
- ETH Foundation's management and route repair, maintaining a certain degree of infrastructure innovation
- Maintaining a robust on-chain financial ecosystem
In a long-term optimistic prediction, ETH may challenge $10,000 in the new cycle, requiring the following conditions:
- BTC rises to over $300,000
- ETH brings eye-catching infrastructure innovations favorable to DeFi
- U.S. institutions promote ETH as an important native platform for asset tokenization
- Demonstration effect driving global asset tokenization
II. Three Unmissable ETH Ecosystem Projects
1. UNI (Uniswap): Largest DEX Protocol in Crypto Market
Uniswap is the earliest and largest Dex protocol in the crypto market, with a TVL of $4.7 billion, daily trading volume exceeding $2 billion, generating $900 million in revenue annually. UNI is fully circulated, with about 40% locked for governance, current circulating market cap of $4 billion, and FDV of $6.6 billion.
Currently, there is a certain decoupling between UNI's token economics and protocol revenue, with protocol-generated income not automatically distributed to UNI token holders. UNI primarily serves as a governance token, allowing voting to control treasury usage, and can indirectly positively affect UNI price through governance proposals, such as the DAO voting to repurchase 10 million UNI in 2024.
The decoupling between protocol revenue and token returns is mainly due to previous SEC regulatory risks regarding security classification. With U.S. crypto regulation gradually becoming more relaxed and standardized, UNI's protocol distribution may have upgrade possibilities in the future.
Recent Uniswap developments include Uniswap V4 and Unichain expansion, and preliminary activation of the "Fee Switch" mechanism.
2. AAVE (Aave): Largest Lending Protocol in Crypto Market
AAVE is the largest lending protocol in the crypto market, with a TVL of $23 billion, generating $450 million in revenue annually, with 100% token circulation and a current market cap of $3.3 billion.
Similar to UNI, there is no direct dividend relationship between protocol revenue and AAVE, instead indirectly influencing through governance.
Recent Aave developments focus on Aave V4 development, cross-chain expansion of native stablecoin GHO, and advancing the Horizon project to explore RWA business.
3. ENA (Ethena): Largest Synthetic Stablecoin Protocol in Crypto Market
From 2025 to date, Ethena's synthetic dollar USDe has become the third-largest dollar-pegged asset in the crypto market, only behind USDT and USDC, and the only synthetic stablecoin. In terms of revenue, Ethena is also a high-yield DeFi protocol, generating $315 million in annual revenue. ENA currently has a market cap of $2.18 billion, with an FDV of $5.6 billion.
Recent Ethena business developments include comprehensive layout: collaboration with Securitize to launch the "Converge" blockchain network, aiming to bridge traditional finance and DeFi; planning to launch an iUSDe stablecoin product for traditional financial institutions; integrating its stablecoin sUSDe into Telegram applications; and building an ecosystem based on its sUSDe stablecoin, including a perpetual and spot exchange Ethereal on its own application chain and an on-chain options and structured product protocol Derive.
