Odaily星球日报讯 HTX Research 研究员 Chloe（@ChloeTalk1）在最新一期 HTX DeepThink 专栏中分析表示，比特币重回 10 万美元，但市场尚未出现“狂热式上涨”的迹象，比特币期权隐含波动率（IV）稳定在 50%至 55%，远低于历史牛市顶部常见的 80%以上；CME 比特币期货未平仓合约约为 148 亿美元，低于 2020 年特朗普当选时的 200 亿美元峰值。如果美债收益率不重新升破 4.8%，且 ETF 资金持续流入，比特币有望在 105,000 至 115,000 美元之间震荡整固，等待下一轮突破契机。 同时 Chloe 指出，市场仍需警惕中美与欧美之间贸易谈判可能不顺利的风险，潜在的贸易摩擦升级可能对全球市场情绪产生负面影响，进而对比特币等风险资产构成压力。 值得一提的是，上周的 HTX DeepThink 专栏曾结合宏观数据，预测 5 月初或出现流动性窗口，使资金回流加密市场。

Odaily星球日报讯 HTX Research 研究员 Chloe（@ChloeTalk1）在最新一期 HTX DeepThink 专栏中分析表示，比特币重回 10 万美元，但市场尚未出现“狂热式上涨”的迹象，比特币期权隐含波动率（IV）稳定在 50%至 55%，远低于历史牛市顶部常见的 80%以上；CME 比特币期货未平仓合约约为 148 亿美元，低于 2020 年特朗普当选时的 200 亿美元峰值。如果美债收益率不重新升破 4.8%，且 ETF 资金持续流入，比特币有望在 105,000 至 115,000 美元之间震荡整固，等待下一轮突破契机。同时 Chloe 指出，市场仍需警惕中美与欧美之间贸易谈判可能不顺利的风险，潜在的贸易摩擦升级可能对全球市场情绪产生负面影响，进而对比特币等风险资产构成压力。值得一提的是，上周的 HTX DeepThink 专栏曾结合宏观数据，预测 5 月初或出现流动性窗口，使资金回流加密市场。

HTX DeepThink：加密市场尚未出现狂热上涨迹象，需警惕中美贸易谈判不顺利的风险

<Odaily>Odaily Planet News</Odaily> - HTX Research analyst Chloe (@ChloeTalk1) analyzed in the latest HTX DeepThink column that Bitcoin has returned to $100,000, but the market has not shown signs of "euphoric surge". Bitcoin options implied volatility (IV) remains stable at 50% to 55%, far lower than the typical 80% or more seen at historical bull market peaks. CME Bitcoin futures open interest is approximately $14.8 billion, below the $20 billion peak during Trump's election in 2020. If U.S. Treasury yields do not break above 4.8% again and ETF funds continue to flow in, Bitcoin is expected to oscillate between $105,000 and $115,000, waiting for the next breakthrough opportunity. 

Chloe also pointed out that the market should remain vigilant about potential risks of unsatisfactory trade negotiations between China, the U.S., and Europe. Potential escalation of trade friction could negatively impact global market sentiment and put pressure on risk assets like Bitcoin.

Notably, last week's HTX DeepThink column previously predicted a potential liquidity window in early May that could drive funds back into the crypto market.

<Odaily> News: HTX Research analyst Chloe (@ChloeTalk1) in the latest HTX DeepThink column analyzed that Bitcoin has returned to $100,000, but the market has not yet shown signs of "euphoric surge". Bitcoin options implied volatility (IV) remains stable at 50% to 55%, far below the historical bull market peak of over 80%. CME Bitcoin futures open interest is approximately $14.8 billion, lower than the $20 billion peak during Trump's election in 2020. If US Treasury yields do not break above 4.8% again and ETF funds continue to flow in, Bitcoin is expected to oscillate between $105,000 and $115,000, waiting for the next breakthrough opportunity. Chloe also pointed out that the market still needs to be wary of potential risks of unsatisfactory trade negotiations between China, the US, and Europe. Potential trade friction escalation could negatively impact global market sentiment and put pressure on risk assets like Bitcoin. It is worth mentioning that last week's HTX DeepThink column predicted a potential liquidity window in early May that could drive funds back into the crypto market based on macroeconomic data.

HTX DeepThink: The crypto market has not yet shown signs of a frenzy, and we need to be wary of the risk of unsuccessful Sino-US trade negotiations

U.S. President Trump announced a trade agreement with the United Kingdom and hinted that tariffs on Chinese goods might decrease if upcoming negotiations progress smoothly, leading to a comprehensive rise in risk assets. BTC rose from 96K in yesterday's morning trading to a new high of $104,145 since February this year. ETH returned to the two-thousand-dollar mark, with a nearly 20% increase in 24 hours.
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- Tariff hopes boost, U.S. stock indexes rebound
- <BTC> 104K, <ETH> returns to two thousand, network-wide liquidation close to $1 billion...

The United States and the United Kingdom reached a trade agreement, Bitcoin surged to 104K, and Ethereum returned to the 2,000 mark

Against the backdrop of ongoing profound changes in the global macroeconomic environment, the crypto industry is experiencing a new round of structural transformation. <HT> Ventures recently released a new report titled "Industry Observation | Crypto Waves and Potential Opportunities in Macro Gaming," which provides an in-depth analysis of core changes and potential opportunities in the current crypto market cycle.

Currently, Bitcoin is gradually moving away from its traditional positioning as "digital gold" and becoming more aligned with risk asset trends; meanwhile, the Trump administration's policy support for the crypto industry has elevated it from a gray area of regulatory suppression to a "guard..." of US dollar liquidity overflow.

HTX Ventures: The crypto market has entered a new policy-driven cycle, with legalization and dollarization becoming the main themes

Trading Moment: Trump Releases Positive News to Boost Crypto Market, BTC Breaks $100,000 Again, ETH Surges 20%, Analysis Warns of Seasonal "Sell in May" Pattern

1. Market Observation
Keywords: SOL, ETH, BTC
After the United States and the Kingdom reached agreement a Trump encouraged buy this series ignited market optimism. According to the agreement, the and aluminum productscts export tariffs to the US will be canceled, and car tariffs will be significantly reduced from 27.5% to 10%,, imposed.S. imposed 10% "reciprocal tariffs" will remain retained. Affected by this...

Trading time: Trump releases positive news to boost the crypto market, Bitcoin breaks $100,000 again, Ethereum surges 20%, analysis reminds of the seasonal pattern of "sell in May"