The global economic market is currently in a fog of uncertainty. In a recent exclusive interview with Arab Satellite TV, Michael Saylor, founder of MicroStrategy, shared his observations on the current economic landscape and the unique value of Bitcoin as core digital capital. The following section summarizes the key points for you.
Saylor believes that the world is currently undergoing a profound change in the status quo, traditional assets are facing unprecedented challenges, and Bitcoin represents the best investment opportunity and wealth preservation tool in the 21st century.
Saylor first pointed out that the global economy has been in turmoil in the past few months, mainly due to the uncertainty about the future direction of trade flows. He stressed that it is wrong to make linear inferences based on historical experience at present, as actual developments are often unexpected.
Bitcoin's appeal is particularly prominent at a time when global enthusiasm for non-sovereign store-of-value assets is at an all-time high. For investors seeking to avoid counterparty risk, currency risk and participate in the global technological phenomenon, Bitcoin provides the perfect solution.
Sailer firmly believes:
Bitcoin is far superior to gold as a safe haven and is expected to be worth more than 10 times that of gold, and once it reaches that size, it will continue to grow at a rate of 20% per year... I think this is the best investment idea in the world, and there is no other that can compare to it.
The Dilemma of Traditional Assets and the Advantages of Bitcoin
Saylor further analyzed that about $450 trillion of wealth in the global economy exists in the form of value-storing assets, which are often referred to as long-term capital. Traditionally, this capital would flow into real estate, private equity, public market stocks, or collectibles.
However, these 20th century asset classes come with significant risks. Real estate faces threats from natural disasters, rent controls and tariffs; private equity and public market stocks are profoundly affected by changes in political winds, and it is not uncommon for "man proposes, God disposes" to happen frequently; bonds, as currency derivatives, also carry huge risks; collectibles such as artworks face the risk of changes in cultural values. Once culture no longer respects Picasso, their value will shrink.
In the 21st century, the core question is how to keep your money?
As the world becomes increasingly uncertain, people's confidence in governments, currencies and traditional business models is eroding. For example, a successful company with a million employees may lay off 95% of its employees due to robot automation. The risks brought by technology, politics and monetary policy are everywhere.
The first priority for the wealthy class is to escape from risks. Saylor pointed out that whether it is real estate in Siberia, assets in Africa, or assets in any country such as Brazil, Mexico, Russia, if there is an opportunity to convert them into Bitcoin, most people will gladly accept it.
The general trend in the global macroeconomy is that capital tends to flow to the safest networks, such as US assets and the US dollar. Even within the cryptocurrency industry, demand for digital dollars far exceeds that for digital euros, which only account for 1%. "The strong will always be strong, and this is the choice of the world."
Saylor believes that it is a rational necessity for people to shift funds from 20th century analog assets to 21st century digital assets, and from assets affected by nation-state risks (such as Ukraine, Russia, and even the United States) to assets that are beyond these risks.
Bitcoin’s rise was not speculation or accident, but the relentless march of time, prompting wise, well-informed capitalists to de-risk their portfolios by converting 20th century assets into digital assets.
"It's as natural as water flowing to the lowest place." In cyberspace, there are no typhoons, no tariffs, no currency devaluation, no banks stealing funds, and no wars.
Bitcoin: Perfect Capital, Not Everyday Payment Currency
Question: Is Bitcoin a long-term hedging tool? Saylor affirms it and sees it as the future itself.
He predicts that Bitcoin will grow from its current market value of approximately $2 trillion to $20 trillion in the next 4 to 8 years, and reach $200 trillion in 20 years. His personal forecast is that it will reach approximately $280 trillion in 2045.
In response to the question of "invisible and intangible", Saylor explained that the classic definition of money is the most liquid, interchangeable and marketable commodity asset in the world. Gold was the ultimate symbol of sound money in the 19th century, but in the 20th century, its speed was not enough: it could not be transferred across the Atlantic in an hour, nor could it support settlements for 400 million companies around the world.
Bitcoin, as the "digital gold" of the 21st century, is a commodity asset with better liquidity, interchangeability and marketability. It can transfer tens of billions of dollars in seconds, can be deployed on billions of mobile phones, can be converted millions of times per second, and its inflation rate is 0%, which means that the half-life of wealth is eternal, which is in stark contrast to gold's 2% annual inflation (wealth half-life of 35 years).
"Bitcoin represents perfect money and perfect capital," said Saylor.
So why not use it to pay for everyday groceries? He explained that money has two aspects: high-frequency payments (currency) and long-term store of value (capital).
People buy coffee with fiat currencies (like dollars, euros, pesos), which are not usually held for long periods of time. The rich do not store most of their net worth in US dollars, but instead invest in capital goods such as land, sports teams, equity, etc., which can be held for 4 to 400 years.
Bitcoin is this kind of "perfect capital" that can be passed down from generation to generation. He cited Miami Beach real estate as an example, where a house worth $100,000 in 1930 is now worth $100 million, while the value of the dollar has shrunk significantly over the same period. The conclusion is that daily payments should use weak fiat currencies, while savings and investments should choose capital assets that can fight inflation. The smartest trade is to borrow depreciating fiat currency and buy capital assets like Bitcoin.
The future of digital asset classification and regulation
Saylor divides digital assets into four categories: digital commodities (such as Bitcoin, with a potential market value of $400 trillion), digital currencies (such as stablecoins, used as a medium of exchange, with a potential of $10 trillion), digital securities (tokenized stocks and bonds), and digital tokens (such as celebrity coins and fan club tokens, such as Trump coins).
He believes that the value of digital tokens such as Trump Coin depends on the utility that the issuer assigns to them, such as providing exclusive dinner invitations or priority ticket purchase rights. The development of these tokens does not pose a threat to the US dollar or Bitcoin. Bitcoin succeeded because a group of wealthy families who did not trust each other jointly created and ran a decentralized cyberspace program driven by unalterable software in order to preserve their wealth forever.
Speaking of the ECB's concerns about stablecoins and digital currencies, Saylor believes that the future is digital, and resisting the trend of digitalization will only lead to being abandoned by the times, just like a map of North Korea at night, which is dark due to lack of electricity.
He suggested that the White House should develop a clear regulatory framework to establish a taxonomy for tokens, currencies, digital securities and digital commodities, allowing issuers to issue them in compliance with regulations and ensuring that they bear ethical, economic, criminal and civil responsibilities. Once issued, these digital assets should be able to circulate freely at the speed of light. "Regulators that hinder the ability of computers to think are tantamount to legislating to ban light from traveling across Europe or to making people dumber."
Energy issues are crucial to the Bitcoin network, which relies on electricity and computing power for security. Saylor pointed out that the efficiency of the Bitcoin network is currently far superior to other alternatives. The ±20% fluctuation in energy in the next ten years will have little impact on Bitcoin, but will have a far-reaching impact on the future of the overall economy.
The AI economy, in particular, requires huge power support (e.g. 400 GW). He expects demand for electricity, especially baseload power such as nuclear power, to explode in the future. “You can’t make your self-driving car dumber at night, and you can’t stop thinking when the wind stops.” Therefore, any commodity that can produce energy will be in high demand.
Regarding the "bearish reasons" for Bitcoin, Saylor believes that the only real threat comes from "ignorant regulators", but this will only weaken Bitcoin in a specific country and at a specific time, but cannot prevent its development. He cited China's ban on Bitcoin mining three years ago as an example, pointing out that this was mainly because Bitcoin could circumvent capital controls. He believes Bitcoin has reached "escape velocity" and is unstoppable.
The White House has deemed it the only approved digital commodity, making it ethical “digital gold.”
The Choice of Sovereign Wealth Funds and the Path of Strategy
If sovereign wealth funds (such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Kuwait) are looking to diversify their portfolios, Saylor's advice is to "go all in Bitcoin."
He thinks this is an IQ test: if you want to double your billion dollars, buy Bitcoin and issue a press release; if you want to make trillions of dollars, you should follow Strategy and buy in large quantities and continue to increase your holdings.
He predicts that Bitcoin will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 29% over 21 years, outperforming the next best asset by three to four times.
“If you want a 10x return, buy Bitcoin; if you want a 100x return, use other people’s money to buy Bitcoin; if you want a 1,000x return, use other people’s money to leverage and buy Bitcoin.”
MicroStrategy increased its corporate value from $600 million to $108 billion in four and a half years by borrowing money to buy Bitcoin
Oil-producing countries in the Middle East are becoming the preferred locations for data centers and cryptocurrency mining due to their cheap energy advantages. Sailer believes these countries have the opportunity to become "the Switzerland of the 21st century." Digital capital will grow to $200 trillion and will need a home: one that is tax-friendly, regulatory-friendly (recognizing Bitcoin’s status as a digital commodity), and institutional-grade custodial.
He foresees wealthy people around the world who don’t trust their governments converting their wealth into Bitcoin and looking for reliable custodian banks. If Middle Eastern countries can seize the opportunity and provide such an environment, it is entirely possible for them to become new digital financial centers.
“With tens of billions of dollars, you can buy oil buried underground, you can buy gold, or you can buy Bitcoin. But Bitcoin can flow at the speed of light, think at the speed of the smartest AI, become a global asset, and integrate you into the global economy. Why wouldn’t you want to be at the center of this economy?”
Saylor revealed that he thinks day and night about how to get more Bitcoin. Strategy’s mission is to “securitize Bitcoin”, issue Bitcoin-backed equity, convertible bonds, and preferred stocks, and build a bridge between traditional capital markets and the crypto economy. He sees Satoshi Nakamoto's contribution as a turning point in the transition of economics from art to science, believing that Nakamoto provided a perfect monetary theory.
The emergence of Bitcoin makes scientific economic theories based on mathematical and engineering principles possible. He compared Bitcoin's ideology to the pursuit of "economic immortality," while religion pursues "spiritual immortality." Bitcoin is more like a technology, like electricity, fire, or the internet. It is a monetary technology, an ideology that gives rise to protocols, creates assets, and circulates them on the internet.
As more and more influential people join the network, both the network itself and the participants in the network become more powerful, forming a self-reinforcing viral phenomenon.
In response to accusations that Strategy is a "Ponzi scheme," Saylor said the company's way of acquiring assets is no different from that of a real estate investment trust (REIT) and that its 500,000 bitcoins are verifiable. He believes that the misunderstanding of Bitcoin stems from the fact that it is a paradigm shift that will take a generation to adapt to, and the old forces will naturally criticize it, just as classical musicians criticized rock music and steam engine advocates criticized electricity in history.
He emphasized that Strategy's stock is one of the best performing stocks in the S&P 500 index, with a return three to four times that of Nvidia (more than 2,700% growth in four years), and its options, convertible bonds, bonds and preferred stocks have all performed well. He noted that the mainstream media has not really reported on this story and only highlights the risks in a one-sided way.
However, looking at the volatility-adjusted Sharpe ratio, Strategy has a better return and the risk is not too high.
As for the doubts raised by senior Wall Street figures (such as Jamie Dimon and Buffett), Saylor believes that this is a generation gap issue. They grew up and prospered in a world where the dollar was king and U.S. stocks were reasonable bets, and their views made sense in their environment.
However, when the Titanic of our time begins to sink, we must have the courage to abandon ship. He believes that over the past hundred years, the only legal capital asset on the balance sheets of listed companies has been sovereign debt, because US SEC regulations require the use of commodities, and commodities before Bitcoin (such as gold) have their flaws.
Only recently have regulatory and accounting processes paved the way for institutional adoption of Bitcoin. Despite this, no major bank currently offers large-scale Bitcoin purchasing and custody services.
Saylor concluded that the White House has recognized Bitcoin as a commodity, and the Treasury Department has begun to encourage banks to handle Bitcoin business, which marks the beginning of the first year of institutional adoption. Although the banking industry is conservative, it will gradually accept it in the next four years. His advice to investors is:
“When the banks bless Bitcoin and the experts tell you it’s a good idea, everyone will want to buy it but no one will need to sell, and you won’t be able to afford it. Now, you can just do a little research, draw your own conclusions, and get it at a 99% discount.”
His short-term (6-month) forecast for Bitcoin is "higher," but emphasizes that investments should be made with the mindset of holding for at least 4 years, and ideally forever. He expects Bitcoin's average annual return to gradually drop from the current level of about 60% to 20% over the next 20 years, but will always be higher than traditional equity portfolios.
