Bitcoin Market Analysis
Chloe, a researcher at HTX Research, notes that Bitcoin has reached the $100,000 mark. However, the market has not shown signs of "crazy" growth. The implied volatility (IV) of Bitcoin options remains stable at 50% to 55%, much lower than the previous market peak of 80%. The open interest of Bitcoin futures contracts on CME is around $14.8 billion, below the $20 billion mark when Trump was elected in 2020.
If US Treasury bond yields do not exceed 4.8% and ETF capital continues to flow in, Bitcoin is expected to fluctuate between $105,000 and $115,000, waiting for the next breakthrough opportunity. However, caution is needed regarding potential risks from trade negotiations between China, the United States, and Europe that may not go smoothly. Trade tensions could negatively impact global market sentiment, putting pressure on risky assets like Bitcoin.
A recent column combining macroeconomic data predicts that a liquidation window may appear in early May, bringing capital back to the cryptocurrency market. This content only provides market information and is not investment advice.
