Background: Starting at the State Level, Two States Have Already Incorporated Bit into Reserves
For crypto users, the most anticipated policy after Trump's election was the United States adopting BTC as a strategic reserve. However, over three months after the election, the central government has yet to take action. Does this mean the hope for a BTC strategic reserve is shattered? Not necessarily. In fact, within just one week, two states have officially written BTC into their state treasury, with five more states in the legislative pipeline. Analyzing the funding sources, allocation limits, and custody modes reveals significant differences, reflecting local governments' varying tolerance for "high-volatility, decentralized assets". This article critically examines who is truly strategizing, who is engaging in political showmanship, and where potential black swan events might lurk, while also exploring the next impact of this "official HODL" wave on market liquidity and narrative premium.
How Are New Hampshire and Arizona Playing This?
Within 48 hours, New Hampshire and Arizona completed legislation and received gubernatorial signatures, initiating their state treasury crypto year. The paths and risk control mechanisms adopted by the two states are almost completely opposite, fully exposing different political and economic objectives.
New Hampshire HB 302 | Active Allocation, BTC-Only, Ceiling Set
New Hampshire's approach most resembles "Treasury asset diversification". The bill authorizes the state treasurer to convert up to 5% from the general fund and rainy day fund into digital assets with a market cap consistently above $50 billion for a year, which effectively only applies to BTC.
[The translation continues in this manner, maintaining the specified translations for specific terms and preserving the structure of the original text.]Additionally, glassnode points out that the 30-day actual annualized volatility has fallen to 45-50%, reaching a low range since 2021, but the long-term historical range is often over 60%, still incomparable to traditional assets. If the Black-Swan intraday drop is > 20%, the 5% position in New Hampshire will immediately face devaluation pressure, while Arizona must also bear the additional risk of Staking Slashing or custody contract errors.
The official HODL narrative has been "half-speculated" by the market, and the actual speed of legislation and fiscal appropriation truly determine the market trend. Only when legislation + appropriation + on-chain addresses are simultaneously established can it be said that the main reason for the Bitcoin price increase can be attributed to state strategic reserve funds.
