<blockquote>山寨迎来大幅上涨。</blockquote>撰文：1912212.eth，Foresight News久违的大涨行情终于上演了，5 月 8 日晚间时刻 BTC 突破 10 万美元关口后一路上扬，站上 10.2 万美元上方，周线图实现五连涨。不过表现最为亮眼的，则是一直饱受批评的以太坊，24 小时涨幅超 20%，突破 2000 美元关口后，站上 2200 美元。ETH/BTC 重回 0.02 上方，较低点反弹超 14%。以太坊的爆发也引领山寨市场上演暴涨行情，24 小时涨幅中，再质押代币 EUGEN 涨幅超 40%，ETHFI 涨幅超 28%，OP 与 ARB 涨幅均超 15%。公链方面，SOL 涨幅近 10%，SUI 与 BERA 涨幅则均超 19%，稳定币方面 ENA 涨幅超 28%，LQTY 涨幅超 39%。加密市场自今年 1 月以来，沉寂已数月之久，本次上涨，其影响因素有哪些？后续行情又将如何上演？<h2>比特币现货 ETF 自 4 月中旬以来不断净流入</h2>作为市场资金流入指标的 ETF 数据显示，比特币现货 ETF 自 4 月 15 日以来，开始出现不断的净流入。<img src="https://static.fwimg.io/img/feed/3abe2196e0d287bc4cbaa76620bab001.jpg">图表显示，2 日净流入均超 9 亿美元，1 日净流入超 6 亿美元，5 日净流入超 3 亿美元，而净流出方面只有 3 日，且均远小于净流出。目前比特币现货 ETF 累计总净流入达到 407.7 亿美元，资金强劲流入为 BTC 价格起飞奠定了坚实基础。<h2>Strategy 等上市公司仍在不断买买买</h2>数据显示，Strategy 在 4 月 14 日至 20 日期间花费 5.558 亿美元增持 6556 枚 BTC，均价 84785 美元。后续再度斥资 1.803 亿美元增持 1895 枚 BTC，每枚均价 95167 美元。此外，Strategy 还推出大胆的「42/42 计划」，计划在两年内筹集 840 亿美元用于购买比特币，此前去年已实施 420 亿美元的「21/21 计划」。日本上市公司 Metaplanet 则在 4 月 24 日加仓 145 枚 BTC，5 月 7 日再度斥资 5340 万美元增持 555 枚 BTC，此外还于当日发行价值 2500 万美元的普通债券，用于追加购买比特币。Metaplanet 首席执行官发布股东信时曾表示，公司将继续坚定推进比特币战略，目标在年末实现累计持有 1 万枚 BTC。印度上市公司 Jetking、纳斯达克上市公司 Thumzup、美股上市医疗技术公司 Semler Scientific 等正购入或计划购入更多比特币。<h2>BTC 长期与短期持有者均出现增持</h2>Glassnode 数据显示，比特币短期持有者（STH）与长期持有者（LTH）均在增持。其中 LTH 自 3 月初开始持续积累，而 STH 在过去一周也开始增持。Glassnode 将 LTH 定义为持有 BTC 超过 155 天的投资者，STH 则为持有不足 155 天的投资者。根据其最新周报，LTH 自 3 月初以来已增持超 25 万枚 BTC，使该群体总持仓量突破 1400 万枚。<img src="https://static.fwimg.io/img/feed/e66b58ada12fd4ca5510642d968a2ce6.jpg">这表明市场信心正在恢复，积累动能已超过投资者的抛售避险倾向。BTC 接近局部低点 7.4 万美元时，超过 500 万 BTC 处于亏损状态。然而，随着市场复苏，这一数字已降至 190 万枚 BTC 左右，表明超过 300 万 BTC 已恢复盈利状态。<h2>以太坊现货 ETF 不断净流入叠加 Pectra 升级利好</h2>以太坊现货 ETF 数据方面，也表现乐观。4 月末以来，实现 7 日净流入，其中 3 日净流入超 6000 万美元，单日净流出最大值均未超过 3000 万美元。<img src="https://static.fwimg.io/img/feed/15fd21303a38d3f6de89448b5341c1f3.jpg">此外，以太坊已完成 Pectra 升级，这是继去年 3 月坎昆升级后以太坊主网的首次升级，其中包括两项协同更新：Prague 执行层硬分叉和 Electra 共识层升级，并计划纳入 11 项以太坊改进提案（EIP）。几个在本次升级中的重要 EIP 包括 EIP - 7251（提高验证者最大有效余额）、EIP - 7691（Blob 吞吐量提升）、EIP - 7623（提高调用数据（calldata）费用）等。本次升级对于以太坊主网以及生态项目均有不小的技术提升，市场资金于情绪直接反应在 ETH 币价以及生态项目。<h2>USDT 与 USDC 市值单月总涨幅超 4%</h2>稳定币总市值仍在创新高。据 DefiLlama 数据显示，目前稳定币总市值达到 2422.26 亿美元，7 日涨幅超 1607.8 万美元。USDT 月涨幅 3.75%，市值为 1501.79 亿美元，USDC 月涨幅 1.18%，市值 609.04 亿美元，自 4 月末触及高点后有所回落。<img src="https://static.fwimg.io/img/feed/88bec8f0b853ff6d54606f742726a7c5.jpg">（USDT 市值图）两大稳定币市值不降反增，代表资金仍在注入加密市场。<img src="https://static.fwimg.io/img/feed/6f9ea62172a8d5974f8829b382eea927.jpg">（USDC 市值图）<h2>美联储降息或在 6-7 月，中美关税大战或即将和解</h2>5 月 8 日凌晨，美联储在结束为期两天的议息会议后，宣布维持联邦基金利率水平在 4.25% 至 4.5% 的区间不变，这是自今年 1 月和 3 月会议以来，美联储连续第三次不降息。鲍威尔表示，「货币政策前景可能包括降低短期利率。他在新闻发布会上表示，前景「可能包括」降息或保持利率稳定，这具体取决于经济状况。GDP 数据的波动不会真正改变我们的处境。」这也进一步加剧了美联储与白宫之间的紧张关系。特朗普多次发文抨击美联储为江西，并表示与鲍威尔对话就像对牛弹琴，鲍威尔总是太迟了。当前定价美联储最早在 6 月降息 25 个基点的可能性为 30%，略高于早些时候的 27%。根据期货价格，到 7 月降息的可能性约为 75%。近日，英国央行降息，中国央行也降息降准，全球流动性 M2 也在不断上升。美联储降息预期或将促进资金流入加密资产。关税方面，特朗普挥舞关税大棒让全球资本市场战战兢兢，在市场与国内民意压力之下，特朗普终于坐不住了，频频向中方提出和谈意向。5 月 7 日中国外交部宣布何立峰副总理将于 5 月 9 日至 12 日访问瑞士，期间与美国财政部长贝森特、贸易代表戴琪举行正式会谈。这是自 2024 年 G20 峰会后，中美高层首次就经贸议题展开面对面磋商，被市场解读为双方释放「暂停关税升级」的明确信号。<h2>后续行情走势</h2>高盛前高管、Real Vision 创始人 Raoul Pal 发推表示，「我认为 BTC 的主导地位今日已经达到顶峰。目前已经出现了每日、每周和每月的 DeMark 顶部信号，并且顶部水平低于 2021 年高点，而 2021 年高点又低于 2017 年高点。如果这一判断成立，将标志着『香蕉区（Banana Zone）』下一阶段（指山寨季行情）的到来。让我们拭目以待。」一直呐喊牛市未结束的 Placeholder 合伙人 Chris Burniske 则再次发推表示，「当区块链经济蓬勃发展时，它拥有全球任何万亿美元系统中最为迅速的经济反馈循环：活动——链上资金流入——价格——活动。当我们陷入绝望时，总是忘记这一点，然后对财富变化之快感到惊讶。」WOO X 联合创始人 Jack Tan 表示「比特币再次突破十万美元不仅是一个价格上的信心重塑，更是全球对去中心化金融未来愿景的坚定投票。随着贸易战相关消息的影响逐渐减弱，黄金市场也进入了观望期，风险偏好重新回归主导地位。」最为乐观的「喊单之王」BitMEX 联合创始人 Arthur Hayes 则表示，比特币将在 5 月底达到 15 万美元。

比特币第 7 次突破 10 万美元，这一次以太坊能跟上吗？

Knockoff products see a significant surge.

<blockquote>Altcoins see a significant surge.</blockquote>Written by: 1912212.eth, Foresight NewsThe long-awaited major rally has finally arrived. On the evening of May 8, BTC broke through the $100,000 mark and continued to rise, standing above $102,000, achieving a five-week consecutive increase. However, the most eye-catching performance was Ethereum, which has been heavily criticized, with a 24-hour increase of over 20%, breaking through the $2,000 mark and standing above $2,200. ETH/BTC returned above 0.02, rebounding over 14% from its low point.Ethereum's breakthrough also led to a surge in the altcoin market. In the 24-hour period, re-staking token EUGEN rose by over 40%, ETHFI increased by over 28%, while OP and ARB both rose by over 15%. In the public chain sector, SOL rose nearly 10%, SUI and BERA both increased by over 19%. In the stablecoin sector, ENA rose by over 28%, and LQTY increased by over 39%.The crypto market has been dormant for months since January this year. What are the influencing factors of this rally, and how will the subsequent market unfold?

[The rest of the translation follows the same professional and accurate approach, maintaining the original structure and meaning while translating to English.]Placeholder partner Chris Burniske, who has been constantly shouting that the bull market is not over, tweeted again, saying, "When the blockchain economy is thriving, it has the fastest economic feedback loop of any trillion-dollar system globally: activity - on-chain capital inflow - price - activity. When we fall into despair, we always forget this point and then are surprised by how quickly wealth changes."Jack Tan, co-founder of WOO X, said, Bitcoin breaking through $100,000,000again only price of price confidence but also more a vote to the the global vision of decentralized finance's future. As the impact of trade war gradually weakens,,, the gold market also enters a a wait-risk appetite returning to domdominance.The most optimistic "shill king" Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, stated that Bitcoin will reach $150,,000 by the end of May.

Bitcoin breaks through $100,000 for the 7th time. Can Ethereum keep up this time?

Abstract
In May 2025, the People's Bank of China announced a reduction in deposit reserve ratio and policy interest rates, and promoted high-level economic and trade talks between China and the United States, bringing optimistic sentiment to the global economy. Influenced by this, Bitcoin price approached $100,000, and market demand for crypto assets significantly increased. The Web3 ecosystem ushered in new development opportunities under the dual drive of policy support and technological innovation. China's monetary policy easing and the "Bitcoin Reserve Act" officially passed by New Hampshire in May 2025 brought positive and optimistic confidence to the possibility of Bitcoin as a global reserve asset and the industry's development.

The recovery of Sino-US economic and trade relations and the resonance of double reductions have led to Bitcoin approaching $100,000 again

Since February 4th, when Bitcoin briefly broke through $10,200, it has experienced a three-month-long oscillating struggle, with the price unable to effectively stabilize above $100,000. Just now, the market finally witnessed a critical breakthrough, with Bitcoin surpassing $10,100, showing a 24-hour increase of 4%.
[Will Bitcoin return to $100,000 in 90 days, and is the bull market coming?]
In the first half of 2025, the crypto market has been through numerous twists and turns, with Bitcoin's market share continuously rising to a historic high. The Trump administration has simultaneously released regulatory benefits while disrupting tariff order and market manipulation...

Bitcoin returns to $100,000 after 90 days. Is the bull market coming?

In the past 24 hours, Ethereum finally broke its usual pattern, and after the recent Pectra upgrade, it directly brought a 22% increase along with the warming trend, now standing above $2,200 again. Alongside this, Virtual, EIGEN, SUI, and other Altcoins have seen around 50% gains within 24 hours.

Compared to other Altcoins' 22% increase, it might seem insignificant, but the last time Ethereum rose more than 22% within 24 hours was on May 23, 2024, when ETH's price was from...