Author: Metrics Ventures
1/ Following our April perspective, BTC and global risk asset prices have clearly established their bottom this month as expected, and BTC has become the best-performing dollar asset after the liquidity crisis for the first time in many years, which is gratifying. As of the date of this report, BTC's actual price center has broken through March's consolidation range.
2/ Looking at the entire month, after three months of massive turnover, BTC has actually entered a state of supply exhaustion, with moderate trading volume in the long and short interplay. From the market sentiment perspective, many in-market traders are shorting the overall market and altcoins, which aligns with the top-calling judgment made by many old crypto participants based on basic chip theory and sentiment trading habits.
3/ Altcoins need no further elaboration. Although some newly listed tokens and old manipulative altcoins like SUI have attempted price movements, their overall performance remains unsatisfactory. It's difficult to predict when the profit-making effect will return before new liquidity and sentiment peak. We are also seeing more crypto-related assets choosing to embrace SPAC and listing on exchanges like NASDAQ, suggesting that the capital flow path of the next liquidity cycle is quietly changing, posing severe challenges to existing old altcoins.
Market Overall Trend Review and Commentary:
This month's market can be described as crucial. During the volatility convergence after significant fluctuations, the asset strength relationship often represents trend changes. BTC's strength exceeded many participants' expectations. However, we believe this period precisely illustrates several important things: 1/ BTC still lacks concentrated selling pressure, with current clearance mainly involving old crypto and trading floating chips. Therefore, the cycle's end should premise liquidity exhaustion and inflection point, which contradicts the current global liquidity actual trend;
2/ MicroStrategy's Q1 2025 report revealed a capital market historical miracle. We believe the market doesn't understand this. Succinctly, MicroStrategy raised $7.7 billion through various financing methods in Q1 2025, higher than $4.4 billion in Q4 2024. During the same period, despite significant US stock declines, MicroStrategy became one of the most resilient dollar risk assets, consistently ranking in the top ten trading volumes. More surprisingly, the result shows this is a stock the entire market welcomes diluting and increasing issuance, a miracle in human capital history. The market significantly underestimated MicroStrategy's actual financing and purchasing power; existing arrogance and prejudice may bring larger sentiment reversals in the future;
3/ If we previously thought pricing power was merely "transferring" in 2024, now we can conclude that the pricing power handover is complete. Most old crypto analysis frameworks will be eliminated, and research on asset attributes, dollar cycles, and asset operation laws will be more market-rewarded. The crypto liquidity circulation path will verify these conclusions in the next sentiment peak period.
Overall, we are very optimistic about BTC's future trend, partly due to the inevitability of liquidity growth slope increase, and partly due to the deviation between actual trend and market participants' understanding.
Regarding altcoins, we also believe the current new altcoin operation mode linked with US stocks will be a highlight in the next sentiment overflow cycle, worthy of attention from all industry peers.
Finally, a brief discussion of our view on RMB assets. RMB's fundamental transformation will be like the J-10CE's outstanding performance in the India-Pakistan conflict, gradually letting the world recognize it, step by step elevating RMB assets to a new upward channel, continuously raising the bottom. The price deviation from fundamentals here is due to the inertia of long-term shorting, which is precisely the best allocation interval. Global easing is imminent, and the recently concluded high-level financial statement is an important signal. Don't get lost in the chaotic American series; global central banks have already made their choices.
To some extent, BTC in crypto industry professionals' eyes is like A-shares in the eyes of Chinese people. What we want to say is precisely consistent, and we use a poem to condense our past market performance and future outlook for two MVC heavy-position industries:
Red, orange, yellow, green, blue, purple, who holds the colorful ribbon dancing in the sky?
After the rain, the slanting sun, mountain passes layer upon layer.
Fierce battle back then, bullet holes on the village wall.
Decorating this mountain pass, today looks even better.
