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Doge took over three years to digest its 2021 peak, but according to the latest weekly chart shared by anonymous analyst Maelius (@MaeliusCrypto) on X, this popular meme coin might be about to break out of its consolidation range.
Doge Looks "Incredible"
The weekly K-line chart for the DOGE/USDT trading pair on Binance shows its price at $0.1828 (opening price $0.1705, highest price $0.1833, lowest price $0.1643), rising 7.2% this week. Two long-term moving averages form the current structure: the blue line is the 50-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA-50) at $0.203, and the red line is the 200-week rising moving average (EMA-200) at $0.138. Earlier this year, the price fell below the EMA-50, but Maelius believes it is crucial that it never fell below the EMA-200, which is currently located in a broad gray-white demand zone roughly between $0.11 and $0.20.
The second support comes from a rising red trend line connecting the low points of waves in October 2023, August 2024, and April 2025. The recent pullback is marked as "2" on the chart, bouncing almost exactly at the intersection of this diagonal line with the EMA-200 and the lower demand edge - a triple convergence zone that technical analysts typically view as a typical springboard for the next rally.
Maelius's main argument is based on nested 1-2, 1-2 Elliott Wave counting. The first "1-2" sequence began in March 2024 with a high of about $0.2288, retracing to $0.0805 in August of the same year, followed by a larger impact, peaking near $0.4843 in December last year (marked as the second "1"). The corrective follow-up in April to $0.1298 completed the second "2".
In Elliott's terms, two consecutive 1-2 structures "coil the spring", forming the third wave of (3) - historically the longest and steepest part of a push wave. Maelius places the upcoming third wave, its subsequent fourth wave consolidation, and the final fifth wave in the blank area above the current price.
He predicts that DOGE will reach around $1 in the third wave rise, followed by a fourth wave pullback below $0.70. The fifth wave rise is expected to peak between $1.30 and $1.70.
Below the price trend is the Wave Trend Oscillator (WTO), a momentum indicator closely related to TSI, used to measure the distance between an asset's price and its own smoothed value. The WTO shows two lines and a histogram; when the faster line crosses upward from the oversold area (standard settings -60/-53) through the slower line, a bullish cycle begins.
This crossover was just triggered on the 1-week timeframe, the first time since the August 2024 low point. The histogram has changed from deep red to neutral gray, echoing a similar transition before Doge's previous vertical rise.
Overall, the chart depicts a market with a long-held demand block, trading above its 200-week moving average, testing (though not yet recovering) its 50-week moving average, and showing new bullish momentum crossover. From a purely chart perspective, these factors satisfy many conditions technical analysts look for when identifying the start of a major trend.
Maelius concluded: "Doge's performance is incredible, even though it went lower as I initially expected (I anticipated the EMA50 would hold). Considering the major demand zone, EMA200, and diagonal support, it looks like 1,2,1,2 is complete, and now we're moving towards the eastern three lines (within a larger three lines). The 1W WTO recently broke through, which also supports the bottom formation."
At the time of writing, DOGE was trading at $0.18445.
