- BTC has tested the 97K USD level before the US-China negotiations in Switzerland.
- The probability of reaching a trade deal on Polymarket is under 30% at the time of writing.
Bitcoin (BTC) temporarily tested the price level of 97K USD on Tuesday following information about the US-China trade negotiation meeting in Switzerland.
The meeting was confirmed by the US Treasury with the statement,
"In Switzerland, Secretary Bessent will also meet with key economic representatives from the People's Republic of China (PRC)."
Could Macroeconomic Changes Trigger a BTC Price Surge to 100K USD?
President Donald Trump increased import tariffs from China to 145% in April. In response, China applied a 125% tariff on imports from the US.
The uncertainty destabilized the market, including Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. In fact, BTC dropped 15% from 88K USD to 74.5K USD.
However, the asset stabilized by the end of April after Trump showed potential for a tariff agreement with China. The May meeting will be the first effort to resolve the tax deadlock, a macroeconomic factor that has limited BTC's recovery.
Notably, the Chinese Embassy in the US confirmed the meeting and announced,
"Vice Premier He Lifeng, who leads economic and trade issues between China and the US, will negotiate with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent during his visit to Switzerland from May 9 to 12."
Source: Capriole Investment
The macroeconomic relief from late April pushed BTC from 74K USD to 96K USD, emphasized by the positive expansion on the Bitcoin Macro Index.
Any positive macroeconomic updates will continue to drive BTC prices higher.
However, the prediction platform Polymarket is not optimistic about the negotiation results this month.
According to the platform, there is less than a 30% chance of a US-China trade deal before June.
Source: Polymarket
In the options market, traders are actively buying Call Options (betting on price increases) as the 25-Delta Risk Reversal (25RR) is positive for late May and June terms.
On Deribit, traders predict a 16% chance of BTC rising to 110K USD in May, and this rate increases to 28% in June.
Source: Deribit
However, any negative updates from the US-China trade negotiations could also impact BTC and should be closely monitored.
