How Arthur Hayes Interprets the Federal Reserve's Bitcoin Boost: "This Market Rally Is Perfectly Positioned"
BitMEX co-founder and Maelstrom Chief Investment Officer Arthur Hayes believes bond market volatility will trigger a strong Bitcoin rebound. He points out that this uncertainty will force the Federal Reserve to loosen monetary policy restrictions. The Federal Reserve's Rate-Setting Committee will meet today to discuss U.S. monetary policy.
Regardless of the meeting's outcome, Hayes remains optimistic about Bitcoin's price. During an interview at the Dubai Token2049 conference, he stated: "The current market is perfectly positioned for a cryptocurrency price surge." Hayes noted that the market is experiencing "significant fear, uncertainty, and doubt," and that "monetary authorities in the U.S. cannot sustain this situation and will ultimately restart the money printing machine".
He highlighted various current market uncertainties, including the declining U.S. dollar dominance and global armed conflicts. Hayes predicts that Treasury Secretary Yellen will attempt to coordinate with the Federal Reserve to stabilize the volatile government bond market, which will lead to monetary expansion and drive Bitcoin to surge as investor risk appetite increases.
Hayes' perspective continues his previous predictions, suggesting these policies will push Bitcoin's price close to $200,000 (slightly lowered from his earlier $250,000 estimate). He previously wrote in an analysis: "Bitcoin will rise when Trump escalates tariff rhetoric or refuses to reduce tariffs on China, as market expectations anticipate monetary authorities will fully activate the money printing machine (Brrrrr mode) to suppress bond market fluctuations."
"Any investor holding U.S. stocks and bonds is seeking an anti-establishment value carrier," Hayes previously wrote, "In the physical realm, it's gold, and in the digital realm, it's Bitcoin." He predicted April 9th—a week after Trump's comprehensive tariff plan announcement and the day of a 90-day trade war partial ceasefire—would mark the market bottom.
These comments were made on the eve of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meetings this Tuesday and Wednesday. Investors are closely monitoring these meetings to catch hints about the central bank's interest rate policy. Low-interest-rate environments typically encourage traders to allocate to risk assets like cryptocurrencies and stocks, which was one reason for Bitcoin's surge during the central bank's rate cuts in September and November last year.
According to the CME Group FedWatch tool, the market generally expects this meeting to maintain unchanged interest rates, with only a 2.3% probability of a rate cut. However, the probability of a rate cut in the June FOMC meeting rises to 28.4%, and in the July meeting reaches 72.8%. U.S. Bank strategists noted in a research report: "The May FOMC meeting appears more transitional, especially after strong employment data. We anticipate the Federal Reserve will remain unchanged, and Chairman Powell's tone will not deviate from recent statements."
