5 月 7 日，美联储将于美东时间下午 2 点公布最新利率决议，市场普遍预期其将维持利率在 4.25%-4.50% 不变，概率高达 97.2%，但鲍威尔的会后发言可能成为决定比特币短期走势的关键变量。此次决议正值美国经济面临多重挑战：2025 年一季度 GDP 环比萎缩 0.3%，消费者信心指数跌至 13 年新低，而特朗普政府的关税政策加剧了通胀与增长的不确定性。
若美联储按兵不动，比特币或面临短线回调压力。当前市场已部分消化这一预期，技术面显示 BTC 在 95,000 美元附近存在强支撑，4 小时级别需修复轻微背离，但日线仍站稳 MA7 上方，维持强势姿态。若鲍威尔释放鸽派信号（如暗示 6 月降息），叠加美国财政部潜在的流动性注入预期，比特币可能突破 97,000 美元阻力位，向 10 万美元发起冲击。极端情况下，若意外降息，空头 30 亿美元合约或将面临爆仓，引发史诗级轧空行情。
机构动向显示多空博弈白热化：贝莱德 IBIT ETF 单日增持超 6,954 枚 BTC，总持仓量达 59.7 万枚，占流通量 2.38%；同时，比特币期权市场 30 万美元看涨期权未平仓头寸激增，押注价格突破。链上数据进一步支撑看涨逻辑，MVRV 指标回归健康区间，活跃地址数与鲸鱼交易量显著上升，显示大户持续吸筹。
当前比特币价格徘徊于 96,400 美元，10 万美元关口仅一步之遥。市场密切关注美联储对「滞胀」风险的表态及中美经贸会谈进展，任何政策转向或地缘缓和信号都可能成为引爆行情的导火索。今夜，多空决战一触即发！
BiyaPay 作为全球首个多资产交易钱包展现独特价值，现已打通 30 种法币与 200 种数字货币即时兑换，用户可通过 USDT 1:1 等额兑换 USD 直接参与美股/港股证券市场，数字货币、现货/合约 Maker 零手续费。

<div>5 月 7 日，美联储将于美东时间下午 2 点公布最新利率决议，市场普遍预期其将维持利率在 4.25%-4.50% 不变，概率高达 97.2%，但鲍威尔的会后发言可能成为决定比特币短期走势的关键变量。此次决议正值美国经济面临多重挑战：2025 年一季度 GDP 环比萎缩 0.3%，消费者信心指数跌至 13 年新低，而特朗普政府的关税政策加剧了通胀与增长的不确定性。若美联储按兵不动，比特币或面临短线回调压力。当前市场已部分消化这一预期，技术面显示 BTC 在 95,000 美元附近存在强支撑，4 小时级别需修复轻微背离，但日线仍站稳 MA7 上方，维持强势姿态。若鲍威尔释放鸽派信号（如暗示 6 月降息），叠加美国财政部潜在的流动性注入预期，比特币可能突破 97,000 美元阻力位，向 10 万美元发起冲击。极端情况下，若意外降息，空头 30 亿美元合约或将面临爆仓，引发史诗级轧空行情。 机构动向显示多空博弈白热化：贝莱德 IBIT ETF 单日增持超 6,954 枚 BTC，总持仓量达 59.7 万枚，占流通量 2.38%；同时，比特币期权市场 30 万美元看涨期权未平仓头寸激增，押注价格突破。链上数据进一步支撑看涨逻辑，MVRV 指标回归健康区间，活跃地址数与鲸鱼交易量显著上升，显示大户持续吸筹。 当前比特币价格徘徊于 96,400 美元，10 万美元关口仅一步之遥。市场密切关注美联储对「滞胀」风险的表态及中美经贸会谈进展，任何政策转向或地缘缓和信号都可能成为引爆行情的导火索。今夜，多空决战一触即发！ BiyaPay 作为全球首个多资产交易钱包展现独特价值，现已打通 30 种法币与 200 种数字货币即时兑换，用户可通过 USDT 1:1 等额兑换 USD 直接参与美股/港股证券市场，数字货币、现货/合约 Maker 零手续费。</div>

BiyaPay分析师：美联储利率决议今夜引爆加密市场，比特币10万美元生死线决战在即

On May 7, the Federal Reserve will announce its latest interest rate decision at 2 PM Eastern Time, with the market widely expecting to maintain the interest rate at 4.25%-4.50%, with a probability of 97.2%. However, Powell's post-meeting statement may become a key variable determining Bitcoin's short-term trend. This resolution comes at a time when the U.S. economy faces multiple challenges: Q1 2025 GDP contracted by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter, consumer confidence index dropped to a 13-year low, and Trump's tariff policies have exacerbated inflation and growth uncertainties.

If the Federal Reserve remains inactive, Bitcoin may face short-term pullback pressure. The current market has partially digested this expectation, with technical analysis showing strong support for BTC around $95,000. The 4-hour level needs to repair a slight divergence, but the daily line remains stable above MA7, maintaining a strong posture. If Powell releases dovish signals (such as hinting at a June rate cut), coupled with potential liquidity injection from the U.S. Treasury, Bitcoin may break through the $97,000 resistance and launch an assault on $100,000. In an extreme scenario, an unexpected rate cut could cause a $3 billion short contract liquidation, triggering an epic short squeeze.

Institutional trends show white-hot long-short competition: BlackRock's IBIT ETF added over 6,954 BTC in a single day, with total holdings reaching 597,000 BTC, accounting for 2.38% of circulating supply. Simultaneously, open interest in $300,000 call options in the Bitcoin options market has surged, betting on price breakthroughs. On-chain data further supports the bullish logic, with the MVRV indicator returning to a healthy range, and significant increases in active addresses and whale transaction volumes, indicating continued accumulation by large holders.

Currently, Bitcoin price hovers around $96,400, just a step away from the $100,000 mark. The market closely watches the Federal Reserve's stance on "stagflation" risks and progress in China-U.S. trade talks, with any policy shifts or geopolitical easing signals potentially becoming the fuse to ignite market movement. Tonight, the long-short battle is imminent!

BiyaPay, as the world's first multi-asset trading wallet, demonstrates unique value, having now opened instant exchange for 30 fiat currencies and 200 digital currencies. Users can exchange USDT 1:1 for USD to directly participate in U.S. and Hong Kong stock markets, with zero fees for digital currency, spot/contract Maker.

<div>On May 7th, the Federal Reserve will announce its latest interest rate decision at 2 PM Eastern Time, with the market widely expecting to maintain the interest rate at 4.25%-4.50%, with a probability of 97.2%. However, Powell's post-meeting statement may become a key variable determining Bitcoin's short-term trend. This resolution comes at a time when the US economy faces multiple challenges: Q1 2025 GDP contracted by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter, consumer confidence index dropped to a 13-year low, and Trump's tariff policies have exacerbated inflation and growth uncertainties.If the Federal Reserve remains inactive, Bitcoin may face short-term correction pressure. The current market has partially digested this expectation, with technical analysis showing strong support for BTC around $95,000. The 4-hour level needs to repair a slight divergence, but the daily line remains stable above MA7, maintaining a strong posture. If Powell releases dovish signals (such as hinting at a June rate cut), coupled with potential liquidity injection expectations from the US Treasury, Bitcoin may break through the $97,000 resistance and launch an assault towards $100,000. In an extreme scenario, an unexpected rate cut could cause a $3 billion short contract liquidation, triggering an epic short squeeze.Institutional trends show intense bull-bear confrontation: BlackRock's IBIT ETF added over 6,954 BTC in a single day, with total holdings reaching 597,000 BTC, accounting for 2.38% of circulating supply. Meanwhile, the Bitcoin options market saw a surge in open interest for $300,000 call options, betting on price breakthroughs. On-chain data further supports the bullish logic, with the MVRV indicator returning to a healthy range, and significant increases in active addresses and whale transaction volumes, indicating continued accumulation by large holders.Currently, Bitcoin price hovers around $96,400, just a step away from the $100,000 mark. The market closely watches the Federal Reserve's stance on "stagflation" risks and progress in China-US trade talks, with any policy shifts or geopolitical easing signals potentially becoming the fuse to ignite the market. Tonight, the battle between bulls and bears is imminent!BiyaPay, as the world's first multi-asset trading wallet, demonstrates unique value, having now opened instant exchanges for 30 fiat currencies and 200 digital currencies. Users can exchange USDT 1:1 for USD to directly participate in US/Hong Kong stock markets, with zero transaction fees for digital currencies, spot/contract Maker.</div>

BiyaPay analyst: The Fed’s interest rate decision tonight will set off the crypto market, and the decisive battle for Bitcoin’s $100,000 life and death line is imminent

<Odaily>Odaily Planet News</Odaily> - Before Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's upcoming speech about potential interest rate cuts in June, the Bit options market shows moderate risk-averse sentiment. According to Deribit CEO Luuk Strijers, although the market generally expects interest rates to remain unchanged this week, there is only a slight demand for protective put options, reflecting limited caution among experienced traders. Currently, Bit spot prices have fallen to around $94,000, with Deribit's implied volatility index DVOL at a level of 45, the lowest since June 2024, indicating a moderately risk-averse market sentiment. Meanwhile, traders on the decentralized trading platform Derive.XYZ purchased put options with strike prices of $82,000, $78,000, and $76,000, showing concerns about the possibility of the Federal Reserve not cutting or even raising interest rates. Despite the market's expectation of a June rate cut dropping to 30%, Bank of America believes Powell may maintain an open attitude towards future rate cuts in his speech, emphasizing that policy will depend on upcoming economic data. (CoinDesk)

Analysis: BTC traders seek downside protection ahead of Fed Chairman's speech, options market shows mild risk aversion

By: <鲍奕龙>
Source: <华尔街见闻>

As China cuts reserve requirement ratio and interest rates and confirms economic and trade talks with the United States, risk appetite sentiment has significantly improved. Asian stock markets rose, with futures prices for iron ore, steel, and other commodities increasing. Risk aversion sentiment has receded, and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut this week have further weakened, causing the US dollar to strengthen and gold to plummet during the Asian trading session.

On Wednesday morning at 9 am, the State Council Information Office held a press conference, where People's Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng simultaneously announced a reduction in reserve requirement ratio and interest rates, lowering the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points and reducing the policy interest rate by 0.1 percentage points from the current 1.5% to 1.4%, while also lowering housing...

Boosted by news from China, risk appetite has significantly increased, and Bitcoin is approaching $98,000

On May 7th, driven by the continuous strong gold purchasing demand from global central banks and geopolitical risks, gold prices are expected to continue their strong upward trend, with an anticipated breakthrough to a historical high of $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026. Currently, the gold-to-silver ratio has risen from 84.7 last year to 102, reflecting gold's significant premium over silver. As of the time of writing, gold spot prices are at $3,387 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of 28%, while silver has only risen 12% to $32.4 per ounce.

Goldman Sachs points out that oversupply in Asian photovoltaic capacity has led to weak industrial silver demand, and the Trump administration's new tariff policies have exacerbated global economic recession risks, making gold, with its financial and hedging attributes, more favored by funds. Goldman Sachs expects gold spot prices to potentially reach $3,700 per ounce by year-end, and in the event of a substantial global economic recession, accelerated ETF fund inflows could push gold prices to a new high of around $3,880 per ounce by year-end.

Market data shows that global major gold ETFs have attracted over $12 billion in the past two months, creating a record high since 2020. The "BIG strategy" (US Treasury + international stocks + gold portfolio) recommended by Bank of America strategist Hartnett continues to outperform the US stock market, with VanEck physical asset ETF's year-to-date excess returns partly stemming from its 25% gold allocation cap. HSBC's multi-asset strategy head Max Kettner recently downgraded US stock ratings, emphasizing increased gold holdings to address "stagflation-like" risks.

BiyaPay analysts specifically noted that the current market's enthusiasm for gold ETF allocation may continue to be released in the second half of this year and next year, becoming an important driving force for gold price increases. Coupled with ongoing geopolitical risks and the Trump administration's escalation of tariff policies triggering global trade friction, gold's strategic value as the "ultimate safe-haven asset" is further highlighted, with investors maintaining resilient long-term gold allocation demands.

BiyaPay, as the world's first multi-asset trading wallet, supports users in directly configuring gold ETFs (such as GLD, IAU) and gold stocks through its App, diversifying investment portfolios to reduce market volatility's impact on costs while capturing precious metals' long-term appreciation potential. The platform provides instant conversion between 30 fiat currencies and 200 digital currencies, allowing users to exchange USDT 1:1 with USD and seamlessly participate in US/Hong Kong stock market gold asset trading, with significant zero-fee advantages for spot and contract Makers.