Against the backdrop of ongoing profound changes in the global macroeconomic environment, the crypto industry is ushering in a new round of structural transformation. HTX Ventures, the global investment department of HTX, recently released a new report titled "Industry Observation | Crypto Waves and Potential Opportunities in Macro Gaming", providing an in-depth analysis of the core changes and potential opportunities in the current crypto market cycle.
Currently, Bitcoin is gradually moving away from its traditional positioning as "digital gold" and aligning more with risk asset trends. The Trump administration's policy support for the crypto industry has elevated it from a gray area of regulatory suppression to a "satellite asset" of US dollar liquidity overflow. The trader structure has also fundamentally changed, shifting from retail-dominated to institution-led, accelerating the crypto assets' entry into the mainstream market system.
The core driver of this cycle is no longer industry-intrinsic innovation, but the legalization and dollarization process of the crypto industry. Unlike the 2020 DeFi wave or the 2017 ICO boom, the crypto industry has become a tech innovation field actively promoted by the US government in this cycle. The concept of Bitcoin strategic reserves has further strengthened the industry's potential demand foundation, injecting new growth momentum into the market.
The dollarization trend in the crypto industry continues to deepen, serving as both an important engine for industry growth and a potential source of risk. Bitcoin once demonstrated its capital hedging function independent of the traditional financial system during the Russia-Ukraine war, but in recent geopolitical events, Bitcoin prices have fallen in sync with risk assets, reflecting its close association with macro liquidity.
The Bitcoin market is now deeply controlled by institutional investors. CME contract positions significantly increased after the Bitcoin spot ETF approval, consistently maintaining over $10 billion. Institutions amplify returns through spot ETF and futures basis arbitrage with high leverage, causing Bitcoin price volatility to become a three-times leveraged version of the Nasdaq index. This structure means that during periods of abundant liquidity, Bitcoin's gains will lead tech stocks, while during liquidity tightening cycles, Bitcoin's declines will be more dramatic.
On the policy front, the US has made substantial progress in promoting crypto industry compliance. The FIT21 bill clearly defined digital asset regulatory boundaries, bringing tokens with high decentralization under CFTC supervision and establishing a 3-5 year "safe harbor" mechanism to encourage new projects' compliant transformation. Meanwhile, the abolition of SAB 121 breaks the policy barriers to banks' crypto asset custody, with traditional financial giants like JPMorgan and Citigroup successively deploying crypto asset custody businesses, expected to manage over $50 billion by the end of Q2 2025.
In terms of regulatory personnel, crypto-friendly Paul S. Atkins has taken over as SEC chair. The new leadership is promoting adjustments to the Howey test standard, reducing the proportion of tokens deemed securities and expanding the range of ETF-applicable assets. This series of reforms is releasing more potential growth space for the crypto market.
A wave of crypto enterprise capitalization is surging, with top crypto companies like Kraken and Fireblocks preparing for listing, with valuations reaching approximately $20 billion and $9 billion respectively. Simultaneously, multiple top Wall Street investment banks have established crypto investment departments, and sovereign funds are indirectly positioning Bitcoin by increasing stakes in strategic tech companies.
The US is also contemplating a federal Bitcoin reserve plan, proposing to purchase up to 200,000 Bitcoins annually over the next five years, establishing a distributed secure storage network as a long-term national strategic asset. Although funding sources still face legislative and fiscal challenges, related discussions have brought Bitcoin into the forefront of national asset management topics.
Stablecoin legislation is also accelerating. In early 2025, Trump signed an executive order encouraging the development of compliant US dollar-backed stablecoins while prohibiting central bank digital currency (CBDC) research to protect market freedom and personal privacy. Rapid legislation of related bills will accelerate the integration of traditional financial systems and crypto markets, paving the way for compliant stablecoin issuance and application.
Based on the above context, HTX Ventures analyzed key US economic indicators. From a macro perspective, inflation data is controllable, and no significant economic recession signs have emerged. Non-farm employment and unemployment rate indicators show economic resilience, with expectations that the Federal Reserve will consider rate cuts only after experiencing significant economic downward pressure. Before rate cuts arrive, the US stock and crypto markets still face periodic volatility risks due to liquidity tightening.
The passage of the "Beautiful Big Bill" budget resolution will continue the 2017 tax reduction policy and add new tax benefits for the service industry and middle-to-low-income groups. Simultaneously, raising the federal debt ceiling and adjusting fiscal expenditures mean that future US fiscal policy will remain continuously loose, potentially injecting more liquidity into capital markets.
Overall, the crypto industry is playing an increasingly important role in global macro gaming. Policy dividends, dollarization trends, and institutionalization processes constitute the three pillars of this cycle. In future development, crypto asset market performance will be more closely intertwined with global macroeconomic environments, geopolitics, and monetary policy dynamics, presenting new cycle characteristics and investment opportunities. As policies continue to relax, truly endogenous blockchain innovation narratives will inevitably emerge, injecting unprecedented vitality into the industry.
In this transformative tide, HTX Ventures will continue to insight global macro trends, explore potential opportunities, firmly support the crypto industry's compliance and innovative development, and help build a more open, transparent, and sustainable digital asset ecosystem.
About HTX Ventures
HTX Ventures is the global investment department of HTX, integrating investment, incubation, and research to identify the world's most excellent and smartest teams. As an industry pioneer, HTX Ventures has over 11 years of blockchain construction experience, adept at identifying cutting-edge technologies and emerging business models in the field. To promote growth within the blockchain ecosystem, we provide comprehensive support to projects, including financing, resources, and strategic advice.
HTX Ventures currently supports over 300 projects across multiple blockchain domains, with some high-quality projects already trading on HTX. Additionally, as one of the most active FOF funds, HTX Ventures invests in 30 top global funds and collaborates with leading global blockchain funds like Polychain, Dragonfly, Bankless, Gitcoin, Figment, Nomad, Animoca, and Hack VC to co-create the blockchain ecosystem.
For investment and cooperation, please contact VC@htx-inc.com
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