Federal Reserve Rate Decision + Ethereum Prague Upgrade: Two Major Events - Ethereum Pectra Upgraded TodaySome people ask, will it break through $2000? Is good news already priced in? In this bull market, Ethereum's performance is indeed somewhat disappointing compared to Bitcoin, but it has improved significantly compared to many altcoins. The most important thing is that comparing prices is not meaningful; the degree of rise and fall is more objective. From the current daily chart of Ethereum, it's clear that bullish forces are stronger than bearish forces. After the upgrade, the validator account storage limit will be increased from 32 to 2048, significantly reducing institutional operating costs and attracting institutional participation. Meanwhile, the upgrade increases blob fees, enhancing ETH demand, and is expected to drive it back to deflation and consolidate its L1 leadership. This upgrade can be considered the biggest fundamental positive for individual coins this year, and whether Ethereum can turn around depends on this sentiment.
Federal Reserve Rate Decision is Coming The 8th Federal Reserve meeting focuses on rate cut sentiment, with a 97.6% probability of maintaining rates in May. The market has pinned hopes on June (rate cut probability over 50%), but Trump's economic and tariff policies introduce uncertainty. Since the expectation of no rate cut has been absorbed by the market, Powell's speech is what truly matters to retail investors.
Although the possibility of a rate cut in May is not high, the Treasury just issued over $100 billion in US debt, of which the Federal Reserve purchased over $20 billion. Bitcoin surpassed gold and the S&P 500 index last month. That's right, you read it correctly. While Wall Street was on the defensive and gold was doing... well, what gold does - Bitcoin quietly surpassed them both.
Brothers, I woke up and Bitcoin is at 97,000. The true takeoff point for Bitcoin's price corresponds to the start of US-China trade war negotiations~Additionally, an epic positive news:New Hampshire signed HB302 bill, treating cryptocurrency as a strategic reserve,also indicating more states will invest in BTC or other cryptocurrencies as a strategic investment.
Back to market news, $BTC rose to 97,800 at 5 AM due to news, hitting the support (93k) and resistance (97.8k) Short-term market is stimulated by positive news but hasn't broken key resistance, with market rise driven by futures, sustainability is low. Currently oscillating around 96,000, breaking 100,000 is challenging short-term. The true breakthrough will wait for Q2 Q3, with rate cuts bringing significant opportunities, and altcoins will see a major rebound. Now, just buy the dips and maintain cash flow - survival is most important.
$ETH rose to 1850 at 5 AM with positive news but didn't break key resistance, continuing to consolidate. Daily chart is already running on reduced volume, recent oscillations are about choosing direction. Moreover, ETH's spot buying power is higher than BTC's, as market reactions show retail investors are more willing to buy ETH at current prices.
Altcoins will show direction in the next two days, with opportunities if there are sharp movements, otherwise just wait.
Recent altcoin market shows an unusual situation, normal VC coins are falling, MEME remains slightly stronger, AI has already pulled back, indicating main funds are reluctant to take risks.
Overall: Bitcoin is struggling, with bulls and bears fighting fiercely around $97,000.Recommend tracking two key signals:1) Powell's statement on balance sheet reduction; Current market volatility depends on capital flow and sentiment. Tomorrow morning's meeting and Powell's speech are crucial. May rate cut is unlikely, but whether Powell's tone is dovish or hawkish will directly impact market trends. 2) Intensity of bulls and bears in the 98k-10k range, with potential volatility premium opportunities greater than directional risks at night.
Today is quite important. Regardless of specific news, as long as news comes out, it can be considered a potential "positive".
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