At 2 AM, the Federal Reserve's heavyweight decision is coming,
BTC is approaching the $100,000 critical point, with bulls and bears on the verge of a major battle!
BTC has been slowly rising recently, with short sellers constantly trapped and unable to exit. The market makers are apparently not in a hurry to dump, but instead choose to steadily push up prices, waiting to strike a fatal blow when short sellers are deeply trapped. Meanwhile, Ethereum's Prague upgrade is about to be implemented, with the market observing whether it will be a positive realization or a negative start.
Hot spots:
1. Binance listed $SYRUP and $KMNO, sparking attention to the lending protocol Maple Finance and Solana ecosystem Kamino; 2. Football fan tokens are expected to rise with the Champions League final; 3. Ripple adjusted $XRP disclosure method, pointing out that SEC previously used transparent information as a litigation tool
4. Zerebro founder's "fake death" is shrouded in suspicion, with the $LLJEFFY incident revealing the absurd reality of the crypto world, and the obituary platform seemingly deleting the death announcement.
Undoubtedly, the highlight of this week is the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting at 2 AM on Thursday, which will directly impact the global capital market's direction in the coming months, and the crypto market is no exception.
Three key points of the meeting:
- This rate decision: Rate cuts are almost impossible, with the market already expecting this, and maintaining current rates will not create a new market impact.
- Future guidance is crucial: This will determine if June will start a rate-cutting cycle. The latest data shows market expectations for June rate cuts have dramatically cooled from 68% to 31.8%, with the probability of no rate cut rising to 67%. This means Powell's speech is more likely to be hawkish, potentially bringing short-term negative sentiment.
- Market signals are increasingly cautious: BitFarm has announced no new mining machine purchases for the year and is selling BTC; declining computing power also shows miners are becoming conservative. Additionally, whale Spoofy is continuously selling, potentially selling for another 10 days, suggesting this rally may be near its end.
Current strategy recommendations:
- Large funds are currently watching or reducing positions, especially worried about the "policy vacuum" if rate cuts are delayed until late July, which could trigger a market pullback.
- If you already have good returns, consider taking appropriate profits and controlling risk.
- Even if Powell unexpectedly turns dovish, there will be ample time to re-enter later.
Macro aspects cannot be ignored:
Rising unemployment rates, frequent tariff rumors, and even Trump not denying the "possibility of recession" will increase market uncertainty. Whether the bull market can continue ultimately depends on when the Federal Reserve truly starts an easing cycle.
In this turbulent environment, retail investors' biggest advantage is flexibility. At this stage, "preserving profits and waiting for clear signals" is a more prudent choice.
While there are many negative news, there are also positive signals worth noting, and we must remain objective.
First, Wall Street funds are continuously flowing into BTC, with almost daily net inflows in the past two weeks, reflecting growing institutional interest. Simultaneously, the US stock market is exceptionally strong, just creating the longest 9-day winning streak since 2004, forming a linkage with the crypto market. However, the rhythm suggests a potential small pullback tonight to consolidate, with continued rallying potentially being riskier.
In terms of operations, we previously advised taking profits on BTC around $97,000, which happened to be near the local high point; ETH also experienced the Prague upgrade on May 7th, but with extremely low market enthusiasm, suggesting limited positive realization potential. It's advisable to reduce positions at high points and maintain a wait-and-see approach.
For hot tokens, meme token OZK surged 30% today and announced multiple positive news within May, including a token burn on May 7th. Potential future developments like staking, exchange listings, and mainnet launch are expected, with short-term trading advice to take partial profits at high points.
The core direction remains the Federal Reserve:
- If Powell hints at June rate cuts, consider re-entering positions;
- If he remains hawkish, a short-term pullback is likely, so continue observing.
Given that the rate cut probability has dropped to 31%, it's better to wait for clear information than to gamble. Rather than being stuck at the peak, maintaining a calm mindset and waiting for the situation to clarify before acting is the survival logic for retail investors.
That's all for the article! If you're feeling lost in the crypto world, consider joining me in strategic layout and harvesting from market makers! Free exchange group + Q: 3806326575
