The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio has fallen back to the long-term average level, similar to the cooling period in August 2024, indicating a healthy reset of unrealized gains and providing potential support for prices. Additionally, the realized profit and loss ratio has returned to the positive range, suggesting that the market has entered a profit-taking stage with sufficient demand to absorb selling pressure, and market sentiment continues to improve. These on-chain indicators collectively confirm the sustainability of Bitcoin's current upward trend.
Future Outlook: 100,000 Mark Within Reach
Looking ahead, Bitcoin's upward momentum remains robust. The continued advancement of China's loose policies, potential easing of Sino-US trade relations, and the Federal Reserve's gradual entry into a loose cycle (with market expectations of a 75 basis point rate cut in 2025) will create a favorable environment for risk assets. On-chain data suggests that Bitcoin may face resistance around $97,000, but breaking through could pave the way to $100,000 or even challenge $110,000, still offering about a 20% upside from current levels.
The narrative of Bitcoin as "digital gold" is also strengthening. Despite gold's decline due to fading risk aversion, its long-term upward logic (central bank purchases, expectations of dollar depreciation) highly aligns with Bitcoin. UBS analyst Henrik Marx predicts gold could reach $2,950 in 2025, while Bitcoin's attractiveness as an inflation-resistant asset simultaneously increases. Combined with accelerating institutional adoption, such as BlackRock IBIT's continuous inflows, Metaplanet's corporate holding strategy, and Thumzup's fund allocation plan, Bitcoin's long-term value is being redefined.
Conclusion: The Digital King Riding the Waves
Bitcoin's 3% surge on May 7, 2025, is a microcosm of the global economy's shift towards risk appetite. With 88% profitable supply, 64.8% market dominance, $11.152 billion in ETF net asset value, and deep corporate and institutional participation, Bitcoin's recovery has a solid foundation. From China's loose policies to the confidence boost from Sino-US talks, and the subtle adjustment of Federal Reserve expectations, Bitcoin is riding the waves like a king, targeting the $100,000 mark.
For investors, this is a window of opportunity not to be missed. Whether it's the institutional wave of BlackRock IBIT, Metaplanet's strategic holdings, or Thumzup's fund layout, Bitcoin is proving with its strength that the future of digital assets has arrived.