Master's Hot Topic Discussion:
Looking at the Coinglass data this morning, the market is clearly set to burst the shorts. The entire surge started after 5:30, with futures moving first, and spot following around 6:00.
Tonight, we still need to watch market sentiment, with Old Bao's speech and the interest rate meeting being key points of focus. The 2 AM monetary policy meeting will most likely maintain current rates, which everyone understands. An interest rate cut would be unexpected.
By June 19th, the probability of maintaining current rates has risen to 70.8%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike has dropped to 28.6%. The market has long been digesting these negative expectations, which can hardly be considered big news.
The market is like a person who tells you a month in advance that you'll get a candy. Before you can eat it, they say it might be delayed but will definitely come. How can you be excited? After waiting for months, waiting another month doesn't matter.
The current market is led by policies and macroeconomic factors, with only major news capable of creating significant market movements. The small fund battles within the circle are like child's play. Only after major news has been fully priced in can BTC start its minor fluctuations.
Back to BTC, there was a rise from early morning to Asian session, with a potential pullback expected in the European session. Within 12 hours before the meeting, the market will definitely short first. Yesterday's analysis suggested recent pullbacks are mostly within 12-hour adjustments.
Don't chase shorts if the 12-hour Bollinger lower band isn't broken. The long trend remains unchanged, and I personally see this rebound reaching around 105k. Shorting at high points is just a short-term short, with the focus on low-level long positions.
Master's Trend Analysis:
Resistance Levels Reference:
First Resistance: 97400
Second Resistance: 96800
Support Levels Reference:
First Support: 95800
Second Support: 95200
Today's Recommendation:
From the 4-hour perspective, after forming a green candle, as long as the price maintains support between 95.2-95.8K, the long trend is expected to continue.
The first resistance at 96.8k is the candle's closing high point. If the price breaks through this high point, it will form an N-shaped rise, maintaining the long trend.
During the current adjustment phase, 95.2-95.8K is a reasonable adjustment interval. Intraday ultra-short-term traders can buy in batches long, confirming support effectiveness and waiting for price retest of high points.
The first support at 95.8k is likely to be broken in the short term, so the downside can be seen to the second support. Ultra-short-term aggressive traders can start buying long in batches near 95.8k, while conservative traders can buy in batches between 95.2-95.5K.
The second support at 95.2k was a strong resistance during the previous rise and has now transformed into a strong support, serving as an important reference point in trading.
5.7 Master's Wave Strategy:
Long Entry Reference: 94600-95200 in batches, Target: 96800-97400
Short Entry Reference: Not recommended
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