Last week (April 29 - May 5), BTC price showed a wide-ranging oscillation with a high-level consolidation followed by a pullback. On April 30, BTC price touched a low of $92,910 before rebounding and consolidating between $96,000 - $97,000, reaching a high of $97,895.68. On May 2, after multiple unsuccessful attempts to probe $98,000, BTC began to retreat, currently fluctuating around $94,372 with a maximum weekly volatility of 5.36%.
ETH overall presented an "M" shaped oscillation this week. On April 30, ETH rose from a low of $1,731.70 to around $1,800, then made two unsuccessful attempts to break the $1,900 support level, reaching a high of $1,873.17, with a maximum weekly volatility of 8.16%. Currently, ETH price has pulled back to consolidate around $1,700 - $1,800, with the current price at $1,801.72 (data source: Binance Spot, May 6, 17:00).
Market Highlights
Foreign Exchange Market Shows Significant Fluctuations, Potentially Becoming a New Macroeconomic Policy Indicator
Over the past week, Asian-Pacific currencies generally strengthened, with both Korean Won and RMB exchange rates rising. The Taiwan dollar, in particular, rose over 8% in a week, with its spot and one-year forward contract spread reaching a 20-year high. The Taiwan dollar's rise may be influenced by factors such as speculation about US-Taiwan trade agreements, Taiwanese insurance institutions increasing USD asset hedging, and large-scale trade dollar exchanges.
Given the significant fluctuations in the Japanese yen due to interest rate differences last year, these Taiwan dollar exchange rate fluctuations may be an early signal of global capital flow adjustments, with the foreign exchange market potentially becoming a barometer of macroeconomic changes.
Central Banks Slow Gold Purchases, Gold Token Minting Reaches Three-Year High
As central bank gold purchases slow down, the gold market is experiencing a structural transformation. Data shows that gold-backed token minting in April exceeded $80 million, reaching a three-year high, with industry market value increasing to $1.43 billion and monthly transfer volume surging 77% to $1.27 billion.
Global gold total demand in the first quarter reached 1,206 tons, a slight year-on-year increase, but central bank net purchases dropped to 244 tons, significantly lower than the previous quarter. Meanwhile, gold ETF demand doubled to 552 tons, becoming the primary source of funds driving gold prices.
Non-Farm Payrolls Exceed Expectations, Market Rebound Boosts Risk Appetite
The latest non-farm data shows that the US added 177,000 jobs in April, higher than the market expectation of 138,000, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.2%. Despite slowing growth, the job market still demonstrates resilience, reducing market fears of economic recession.
After the data release, US bond yields rebounded, the US dollar strengthened, and major stock index futures rose across the board, with Dow futures rising over 1%. However, influenced by Trump's "medical" tariff policy information, all three major indices declined on the 5th, ending the Dow's 9-day winning streak.
Despite the non-farm data exceeding expectations, the Federal Reserve is 97.3% likely to maintain interest rates unchanged in May, with the market remaining cautious about medium to long-term economic prospects. The Fed currently shows no clear intention to shift, with policy paths still dependent on subsequent data performance and uncertain tariff policy impacts.
More Information
US Consumer Confidence Reaches Post-Pandemic Low, Tariffs and Inflation Expectations Become Primary Drag
Latest data shows the US April consumer confidence index significantly declined, with the Conference Board index dropping to 86.0, the lowest since May 2020; the University of Michigan's initial value is merely 50.8, approaching a historical low. The market generally believes that the Trump administration's recent tariff policy escalation and its expected price impact are the primary factors causing this confidence collapse.
High inflation expectations combined with short-term inventory spikes create a structural "inflation" risk for Q1 GDP, leading the market to become more conservative about annual growth prospects. Panic-driven imports are unsustainable, with weakening core consumer momentum becoming a more concerning signal.
The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma of "high inflation + low growth". Stock and bond volatility intensifies, gold benefits from risk-averse sentiment, while the crypto market shows divergence amid economic and liquidity expectations.
Tariffs May Drag Mag 7 Performance, AI Becomes Tech Stock Watershed
Under the pressure of Trump's tariff policies and soft consumer expectations, tech giants' earnings season shows significant divergence. Microsoft, leveraging Azure's continued strong cloud business and AI strategy advancement, delivered a performance better than expected, with stock price rising over 11% in a week post-earnings, reclaiming global market cap leadership and becoming the only Mag 7 company with positive stock price growth this year.
In contrast, Apple and Amazon face pressure from rising hardware costs and consumer cooling, with a combined market value evaporation of nearly $180 billion. Apple disclosed tariffs bring approximately $900 million in additional quarterly costs, while Amazon lowered profit expectations.
Bloomberg data shows Mag 7 companies' projected 2025 profit growth at 21.6% and revenue growth at 9.7%, both adjusted upward from the previous week. AI-related capital expenditure remains strong, driving rebounds in chip and hardware stocks like NVIDIA and Broadcom. Although Apple and Tesla face earnings pressures, tech companies overall demonstrate strong resilience and growth potential.
US House of Representatives Releases Crypto Regulation Draft, Clarifying Digital Asset Classification and Regulatory Boundaries
On May 5, two key House committees jointly released a crypto asset regulation discussion draft, proposing to establish a unified federal regulatory framework, clarify responsibilities between SEC and CFTC, and provide legal definitions for key concepts like digital assets, blockchain systems, and stablecoins. On May 6, the House will initiate public hearings to gather industry and public opinions.
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