Market Analysis on May 6th
BTC is starting to consolidate again at a small level. After rising and falling yesterday, it began to oscillate, with the lowest point at 93,828, down about 2.20% in 24 hours. BTC recently broke through support and continued downward after a rebound, with weekly chart showing high-level oscillation. The short-term target may be around 92,000. Market sentiment is cautious. BTC ended consecutive red candles with a green candle, showing short-term wide-range oscillation while maintaining a bullish trend in the larger cycle. Four-hour level: The bullish counterattack at dawn did not fully recover lost ground, with weakening momentum and emerging lower support. Current price touches the lower rail of the downward channel, slowing the decline, but constrained by the Bollinger middle band, with short-term downside potential. Focus on the upper level near 95,500u, and the lower level around 92,000u!
ETH Market Analysis Yesterday, ETH's lowest point was 1,781, down about 2.16% in 24 hours. The weekly chart shows stabilization after a 20-week decline, but the rebound lacks sustainability, with a pessimistic market sentiment. The ETH/BTC rate recently fell to a 42-month low (0.0365), reflecting ETH's weakness relative to BTC. Cautious buy the dips: ETH has support in the 1,750-1,800 range, but with insufficient rebound momentum. Suggested light long position around 1,750, with stop loss below 1,730.
Overall: The ascending expansion wedge and spot premium decline are indeed not optimistic... Short-term continues to oscillate, with a larger bearish outlook. We'll see the outcome after FOMC!
Currently, the macro scenario is about gaming recession and rate cut narratives. Recession is definitely a prerequisite trigger for rate cuts, which is the basis for the current bearish trend. However, shorting is difficult because it's hard to bet on whether it will reach near previous highs before market panic truly begins. Why aren't crypto prices rising despite positive news at the end of 2024? Remember the end of 2024, with various positive news flying around - ETF funds flowing, halving narrative continuing, institutional shilling never stopping - yet prices remained unresponsive, staying flat or even pulling back.
Why? First, prices are high, and second, the purchasing power consensus of funds has collapsed. External: Macro expectations have derailed. The market originally bet on the Fed's massive liquidity, but inflation revived, disrupting rate cut pace, with the dollar index not as weak, cooling the enthusiasm for risk assets. Internal: ETF's marginal effect is decreasing. Early-stage fund entry was substantial, but later-stage new fund inflow slowed, and FOMO sentiment for retail and institutional investors has been exhausted. The crypto's old trick of "positive news exhaustion is negative" is playing out again. In one sentence: Positive sentiment has been over-consumed. If there's a next wave of opportunity, I'd say it's in the crypto's internal narrative:
Altcoin Carnival: Once the overall market environment improves, can the crypto whales sit still?
In the past few years, market makers have been holding back, with funds and sentiment waiting for a breaking point. DeFi, AI, Memecoin... Whatever you can think of, or can't think of, almost any track could be hyped into a "new narrative". The next wave of altcoin fever is likely already brewing. What we need to do is patiently wait for opportunities and carefully seek them out, always remembering that money in a bear market is spent 10 times more carefully.
Summary: Bitcoin may not drop too deeply due to its dual attributes, most likely moving in a large oscillation range; but altcoins are preparing to give us a big opportunity. So, are you ready?
Many people can't choose spot targets and still hold inscriptions from years ago, reluctant to cut losses. If you choose a good target, even small funds can be profitable. Crypto blood-losing lessons: Don't touch these two types of coins even if they rise! Potential targets attached.
- Secondly, avoid coins with unlimited issuance! Even mainstream coins like DOT and FIL lose long-term potential after increased issuance, and small altcoins are "death by issuance" - avoid them early!
Those coins from 2017 are like expired products gathering dust in supermarket corners:
Binance monthly clears trading volume <10,000 coins, project teams stop updating for over 2 years, GitHub code not updated for half a year. ICX dropped from 12 to 0.17, STRAT crashed from 32 to 0.4 - these are painful lessons. To earn steadily, focus on these:
- Undervalued value coins Like LINK, AAVE tokens with strong ecosystem regeneration capabilities. Even if prices temporarily drop, they have long-term potential for value return and price rebound.
- Stablecoin sector ENA, CRV and other stablecoins, with excellent anti-drop characteristics, are expected to become market leaders this year.
- Potential new coins Emerging tokens with sufficient funds often achieve rapid growth when market conditions improve due to liquidity and development potential.
Beware of the "infinite money printer", stay away from inflationary coins. DOT increases by 10% annually, FIL storage miner reward pool expands infinitely - like your bank money automatically shrinking. DOT's circulating supply rose from 100 million to 1.3 billion in 3 years, requiring a 13x price increase to break even. Project teams cash out using newly issued coins, with FIL team unlocking 2 million coins monthly - a typical whale manipulation strategy. In comparison, LINK has a fixed 10 billion total supply, AAVE deflates by 2.3% annually - truly hard currency. The market is currently cold, with low trading volume and low retail confidence, even major exchanges are worried. But remember, opportunities are created through drops! Be patient, the next wind is coming soon! In crypto, understanding is the wealth password! Spot trading opportunities for large MC memecoin, short-term wave trading strategies, and long-term investment approaches and entry timing position allocation. Grasp market pulse at the first moment, whether in bull or bear market, to make investment decisions a step ahead. Interested? Add WeChat: xy368975
